food & water crisis s9 ait 3 nov 09 v2
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A keynote address by Dr. Alain Vidal of the CPWF to the Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable Development: a Forum focusing on Carbon Dioxide Reduction and Efficient Use of Water, hosted by Thailand's AIT on November 3-4, 2009. The conference seeks to discuss how spiritual values can complement political and economical processes and what can be done to increase the impact of ethical values on carbon dioxide reduction and efficient use of water. The primary purpose is to find ways and means for securing a sustainable society based on the long term ethical values common to all world religions.TRANSCRIPT
The inseparable water and food crises: how can we overcome them?
Alain VidalCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food
Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable DevelopmentAIT – Bangkok – 3 November 2009
Food crisis: is it new?
Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses
Remember! Every 5 seconds, one child younger than 10 dies of hunger
Food crisis: the hunger countdown?
3 billion do not eat their fill2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty
Reducing rural poverty Increase farmers income and resilience And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor
Water, food and GDP
Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)…
… and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia)
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Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
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year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
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rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
-6
-4
-2
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1970
1975
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Annual growth rate
(%)
ag grow th GDP grow th
What is causing the world food crisis?
Long-term trends… Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate
change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply
shocks
…plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately
affected the poor Uncertainties due to economic instability
Rapid variations in world food prices
What’s next?
More meat in China, more milk in India
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10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
me
at
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pti
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(kg
/ca
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r) Meat China
India
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GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
milk
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p/y
r)
Milk
China
India USA
USA
Food & feed demand will double The main driver
How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand? While world population will increase by 50%...While world population will increase by 50%... … … changes in diets will result in almost doubling changes in diets will result in almost doubling
the food demand!the food demand!
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Long-term effect of climate change
Decrease of main crops production by 2050 ! Maize 16% Rice 21% Wheat 42%
Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100
What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis?
Food commodities is another casino where people gamble In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned
towards food commodities Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in
2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO)
Consequences of the economic and financial crisis Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in
lower food prices – but too low for farmers Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt,
resulting in decreased investment in agriculture
• What does the future of world food prices look like?
Do we also have a water crisis?
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The driving forces?
Growing populationDietary changeUrbanizationBiofuel productionNeed for environmental water Climate change
… similar to the food crisis drivers!
The Water Crisis in context
Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day
2-5L Daily
20-500L Daily
500-3000LPer Kg
Water consumption is increasing
Dietary water demand grows with GDP
Lundqvist 2008
GDP US$/cap/yr
The water productivity challenge
Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels?
No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use
…Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues
A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m3 of water, we would be safe
Increase the productivity of water to potential
Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability Water is often a constraint in productivityIntegration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water
Potential = 1-2 kg/m3
Water productivity and resource management
Before After
Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yrRice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year
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The resilience challenge
Not only should water productivity be increased…
…but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie
become more resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable)
Green water Blue water
MUS
MUS resilience zone
Single uses
unstable zone
Resilience of dry rainfed systems
Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water
Ways to improve access to green water In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase the
rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching Micro catchment or runoff farming and supplementary ‐
irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fields
Household crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year
Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram
Highly productive but contested waterscape Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles
to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity
Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega projects hangs ‐over future of wetlands
But household income US$1100/y
“paa boong paa thaam”
Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems
Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural waterExperience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water
livestock
door
Total area 2 ha ; ponds, paddy fields; integrated farm; and forest
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Trees & fruits
Trees & fruits
12x24x5 m
Tre
es &
frui
ts Trees & fruits
Farm
Forest
Frog farm
Vegetables
Nursery
From domestic water to multiple-use
Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility Especially for the poor and for women
generates ‘more MDG per drop’ Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived
income ranging from US$40 to 300/year Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based
production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses
Spiritual Transformation
Inhumanity inflicted to another destroys humanity in myself
Emmanuel Kant, philosopher
Science is a differential equation, religion is a boundary condition
Alan Turing, founder of computer science
Reintroducing a « triangulation »
Man alone with his pulsions
Universal law and inner peace
« O
ther
ness
»
Changes at individual level
Care for individual water footprint
Political changes at local level
Respect and learn from sacred waterscapes
Paa Boong Paa Thaam (Thailand)
Tamboloma sacred lake in the Andean Paramo (Ecuador)
Water Temples (Bali)
Political changes at local level
In Balinese subaks, water sharing coordinated by temples has increased collective output incomeMore gain from sharing than from protecting individual interests (spiritual > economic)
Political changes at global level
High level declarations from spiritual leaders do have impact Eg Encyclical Letter Caritas in Veritate
“a network of economic institutions capable of guaranteeing regular access to sufficient food and water for nutritional needs, and also capable of addressing the primary needs and necessities ensuing from genuine food crises, whether due to natural causes or political irresponsibility, nationally and internationally” (§27)
How do we exploit the unique moment of this Forum?
References and links
Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) www.waterandfood.org
The World Bank www.worldbank.org World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) www.fao.org
International Water Management Institute (IWMI) www.iwmi.org Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) www.ifpri.org
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Photo Credits
Challenge Program on Water and FoodThe World BankInternational Water Management InstituteInternational Livestock Research InstituteInternational Development EnterprisesReuters
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