focra ii outlook

FOCRA II OUTLOOK

A K SRIVASTAVAINDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

In Asia, China has been coordinating an RCOF called Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II, Asia (FOCRAII) since 2005, covering the entire continent

Thus the recent FOCRA II (held at Beijing during 6-8 April) was the sixth meet

Participants Countries

China, Japan, Korea, DPR Korea

Mongolia. Kazakhstan, Russia

Laos, Macao

Pakistan, Maldives, India

Institute Representation

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting : Dr. Tim Stockdale

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University: Ngar-Cheung Lau

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University : Liqiang Sun

Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan : Akio KITOH

NOAA Climate Prediction Centre: SongYang

University of Hawaii : Fie-Fie Jin

Hadley Centre : Anca Brookshaw

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique(LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL),CNRS/UPMC-Paris : Laurent Z.X. Li

In the forum, experts and participants

discussed regarding evolution and likely

future behaviour of different global

forcing/tele-connection and its impact on the

EASM and Summer Monsoon over the

South Asia.

Finally based on input forecasts, consensus

Outlook for temperature and precipitation

for the coming monsoon season was issued

and which is summarized in next slide.

Summary of the outlookSEAM rainfall is likely to be below normal andOnset may also be delayed (due to above normalsnow, negative AO, +ve SST anomalies, stronger NW Pacific Anticyclone, weaker TEJ )

Summer monsoon rainfall over the South Asia islikely to be normal. Over India more rain over thesouthern parts.

Temperature is likely be normal/abovenormal over most part of the Asia