flexpart forward and backward and backward trajectories...

FLEXPARTforwardandbackwardtrajectoriesduringIOP1andIOP2basedon625mresoluConwindsfromWRF

simulaCons

Presented by Henrique Barbosa, Universidade de São Paulo,

on behalf of many partners of GoAmazon2014/15

GoAmazon2014/15WorkshopHarvard,May20th

on700mandIOP2andbackward

WRFandFlexpart

Goal:•  UsewindsfromahighresoluConWRFsimulaConsimulaContoforceFLEXWRFLagrangianTrajectoryModel

Deliveries:•  Backwardandforwardtrajectories(clusters);•  Times’plumeisforecastedovereachsite;

WRF3.6.1•  Period:27jan2014to1apr2014•  IniCal&Boundarycond.–  ClimateForecastSystemReanalysis–CFSR/NCAR–  0.5x0.5deg,every6h

•  4Grids(700m,2.1km,6.3km,18.9km)•  ParameterizaCons:– Microphysics:Thompson–  RadiaCon:RRTMG–  PBL:Mellor-Yamada-Janjic–  Land-Surface:unifiedNoah–  Cumulus:Kain-Fritsch(notfor700m)

•  Outputevery30min

Grids

•  Grid118.9km

•  Grid26.3km

•  Grid32.1km

•  Grid4700m

ALBEDO•  VegetaCon:PROVEG-INPE(ThankstoM.Bela)

WRFINPE

GreennessfracCon•  VegetaCon:PROVEG-INPE(ThankstoM.Bela)

WRFINPE

Sohowwelldidthemodeldo?

IOP1,averageoverT3site

1)Howtovalidateagainstmeasurements?

Flexwrf3.2(basedonPILT/flexpart6.2)

•  ConCnuousforwardrun– SingleconCnuousrun(IOP1)– Outputevery30min– Regulargrid(@700m)and14verCcallevels

•  50m,100,200,300,600,1km,1.21.5,2,3,4,5,6,10

– ParCclereleases•  2000passivetracersevery30min(nodielcycle)•  50mto150maboveManausbox

CPC#COUNTS,"GoAmazon2014/5,"IOP1,"17"March"2014,"16:24"to"17:31"UTC!

Slide prepared by Scot Martin

Slide prepared by Scot Martin

Scot’stalk

GoodagreementwithG1measurements(for

thiscase!)

17March201416:24to17:31

UTC

Ground“concentraCon”

Lengthofplumeevents

Time(h)Insideplume

T3 2.9±2.8T2 4.3±4.3T1 ---T0e 6.1±4.7T0z 4.0±3.6T0a 0.5

2)Isthatwhatweget@groundlevel?

Length(hs)ofin-plumeevents

Ground“ConcentraCon”Average Plume>0 >1%MAO >10%MAO

T3 0.014 0.06622%

0.1014%

0.283.7%

T2 0.24 0.4850%

0.6239%

0.9525%

T1 1 1100%

1100%

1100%

T0-embp 0.44 1.432%

1.627%

1.922%

T0-zf2 0.056 0.3815%

0.511%

0.806.7%

T0-aEo 0.000044 0.0120.34%

0.0220.13%

------

AverageconcentraConsatcloseup-windsitesseemstobelargerthenatdown-windsites!

3)Isorderofmagnitudesimilartoobs?

Plumegoingforwardisdiluted!

T0-embp

T0-zf2

Plumegoingbackwardsisconcentrated!

VerCcalprofileof“concentraCon”

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@50m

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@200m

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@300m

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@600m

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@1.1km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@1.2km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@1.5km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@2km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@3km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@4km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@5km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@6km

Log10(NormalizedConcentraIon)

AverageIOP1@10km

Longitude=T2

Longitude=T3

TimeCorrelaCon:GNDxAlCtudes

200to600mnotagoodchoice!

50and100mhavegoodcorrelaCon!

Conclusions+NextSteps

•  Conclusion(careful)– Plumenotsteadyatall!Δt~0-5hsatT3– N-NEpropagaConismoreloaded– ParCclesreach10km,buthighcorrelaCon<150m

•  Next(important)– Howtovalidatethemodel?ComparewithG1flightalso?Shouldwesetupaworkinggroup??

– ShouldweallowparCclestodryorwetdeposit?WhatalCtudesareinteresCng?

– Whatoutputisneeded?Traj-files?Plume-Cmes?

Thankyou!