evaluating the implications of carbon budgets on uk business

Radical Emissions Cuts: The Technological and

Business Challenge www.theccc.org.uk

The scale of the challenge

2006 emissions

International aviation & shipping*

UK non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2

Industry (heat & industrial processes)

Residential & Commercial heat

Domestic transport

Electricity Generation

* bunker fuels basis2050 objective

159 Mt CO2e

695 Mt CO2e

77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)

UK aviation emission forecast

Implications if aviation emission cannot be reduced

UK sectoral emissions on an 80% reduction path

UK sectoral emissions on an 90% reduction path

Carbon intensity of electricity

Renewable generation capacity

Wind capacity in UK and Germany

Effects of electricity decarbonisation

Technological progress in batteries

• Lower cost

• Longer range

• Faster recharge

• Lower weight

Technological progress in batteries

• Lower cost

• Longer range

• Faster recharge

• Lower weight

Consumer Behaviour

• Willingness to accept recharge distance which covers 90% of journeys (but not 100%)

• Willingness to buy small light (city only) cars

Consumer Behaviour

• Willingness to accept recharge distance which covers 90% of journeys (but not 100%)

• Willingness to buy small light (city only) cars

Recharging infrastructure development

• Provision of on street, at office, in car park recharging points

• Battery swap-over systems (e.g. Denmark / Israel / Australia “Better Place” plans)

• Rapid Recharge capability

Recharging infrastructure development

• Provision of on street, at office, in car park recharging points

• Battery swap-over systems (e.g. Denmark / Israel / Australia “Better Place” plans)

• Rapid Recharge capability

Key drivers of electric vehicle uptake

Carbon efficiency of heat pumps

Aggregate generation

Total: 169 Mt CO2

2006 emissions

Rail

Road Buses

HGVs

LGVs

Cars

Aviation – domestic and international*

OtherAverage annual growth rate: 1990-2006

Kilometres+ Emissions

HGVs: 1.0% 0.7%

LGVs: 3.0% 4.0%

Cars: 1.1% -0.2%

Aviation: 4.3% 5.2%

* bunker fuels basis + passenger-km where applicable, otherwise vehicle-km

Transport emissions

Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable Bio fuels

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable Bio fuels

Application of power to transport

and heat

Meeting the required reductions