evaluating the implications of carbon budgets on uk business
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Lord Turner, chair, Committee for Climate Change - at the CBI Climate Change Summit, Tuesday 2 December 2008TRANSCRIPT
Radical Emissions Cuts: The Technological and
Business Challenge www.theccc.org.uk
The scale of the challenge
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
695 Mt CO2e
77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
UK aviation emission forecast
Implications if aviation emission cannot be reduced
UK sectoral emissions on an 80% reduction path
UK sectoral emissions on an 90% reduction path
Carbon intensity of electricity
Renewable generation capacity
Wind capacity in UK and Germany
Effects of electricity decarbonisation
Technological progress in batteries
• Lower cost
• Longer range
• Faster recharge
• Lower weight
Technological progress in batteries
• Lower cost
• Longer range
• Faster recharge
• Lower weight
Consumer Behaviour
• Willingness to accept recharge distance which covers 90% of journeys (but not 100%)
• Willingness to buy small light (city only) cars
Consumer Behaviour
• Willingness to accept recharge distance which covers 90% of journeys (but not 100%)
• Willingness to buy small light (city only) cars
Recharging infrastructure development
• Provision of on street, at office, in car park recharging points
• Battery swap-over systems (e.g. Denmark / Israel / Australia “Better Place” plans)
• Rapid Recharge capability
Recharging infrastructure development
• Provision of on street, at office, in car park recharging points
• Battery swap-over systems (e.g. Denmark / Israel / Australia “Better Place” plans)
• Rapid Recharge capability
Key drivers of electric vehicle uptake
Carbon efficiency of heat pumps
Aggregate generation
Total: 169 Mt CO2
2006 emissions
Rail
Road Buses
HGVs
LGVs
Cars
Aviation – domestic and international*
OtherAverage annual growth rate: 1990-2006
Kilometres+ Emissions
HGVs: 1.0% 0.7%
LGVs: 3.0% 4.0%
Cars: 1.1% -0.2%
Aviation: 4.3% 5.2%
* bunker fuels basis + passenger-km where applicable, otherwise vehicle-km
Transport emissions
Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable Bio fuels
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable Bio fuels
Application of power to transport
and heat
Meeting the required reductions