eu-civcap newsletter may 2016 · newsletter 2 3 expert network the eu-civcap expert of the month,...

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EU-CIVCAPImprovingEUcapabilitiesforpeacebuilding

NEWSLETTERVolume1,Issue2May2016

Editorial

ContentsEditorial..................................................1

EUCapabilitiesforConflictPreventionandPeacebuilding:Acapabilities-basedassessment–newpaper........................2

ExpertNetwork......................................3

Events.....................................................3

Publications............................................4

BrexitBlog..............................................4

Contactus..............................................5

Published

• EU-CIVCAPTheoreticalandmethodologicalframework

• EU-CIVCAPNewsletter,Volume1Issue1

• DL8.7ConflictPreventionandPeacebuildingForum1

BleakProspectsforPeaceinSyria

The conflict in Syriahasentered its fifthyear, with no resolution in sight. In thefirstfouryearsofthewar,theUNSecurityCouncil(UNSC)onlymanagedtoadoptahandful of consequential resolutions,mostnotablyontheendorsementoftheJune 2012 Geneva Communiqué layingout steps for a transitional governmentwithfullexecutivepowers,theremovalofchemical weapons and access forhumanitarianrelieforganisations.Afteraremarkable cessation of hostilities inMarch andApril 2016, fightinghas onceagain broken out, causing significantcasualties and further destruction, inblatant disregard of internationalhumanitarianlaw.ThefactthatboththeSyrianregimeandoppositiongroupsstillthink that there is amilitary solution tothe crisis augurs badly for efforts tobrokerpeace.

Paradoxically, it was the escalationsparked by the Russian militaryintervention in Syria in September 2015thatrefocusedinternationalattentiononSyriaandtriggeredrenewedinternationalpeaceefforts.Crucially,politicalmeetingsinViennainOctoberandNovember2015,co-sponsored by the United States andRussia, have led to theestablishmentofan inclusive ‘International Syria SupportGroup’ (ISSG), which provides a newformatinwhichtheSyriapolicyoftheUN,League of Arab States, EU and leadinggovernmentscanbealigned.Forthefirsttime,thisplatformalsounitesthestatesin the region thatbackoneor theothersideoftheSyrianconflict.

As a result of these developments, theUNSCwasabletoadoptResolution2254(in December 2015), which defines theframeworkforasolutiontotheconflictinSyria, based on political transition. Thisresolution is now considered to be themain reference for outlining the UN-facilitated political process that shouldendtheconflictthrougha“Syrian-ledandSyrian-ownedpolitical transition”on thebasis of the 2012 Geneva Communiquéand the 2015 Vienna Statements. Theresolution further clarifies that thepoliticalprocess is facilitatedby theUN,throughitsSpecialEnvoyforSyria,StaffandeMistura.TheISSGisacknowledgedasthecentralforumtofacilitateUNeffortstoachievealastingpoliticalsettlementinSyria.ThusasharedresponsibilityforthepoliticalprocessisvestedwiththeUNandthe ISSG. In terms of substance, theresolution adopts the benchmarks forpolitical transition as spelled out in theViennaStatementof15November2014,namely to establish an “inclusive,credible, and non-sectarian governance”within six months and to set up “ascheduleandaprocessfordraftinganewconstitution.” The UN Special Envoyinitiated the first round of the formalnegotiationson29January2016andhassinceheldthreeroundsoftalksinGeneva.

TheISSGhasprovedtobepivotaltotheprocess.Whereas the EU participates inthis ‘contact group’, it wields littlepoliticalpower,seeingthatithas‘nodogin the fight’. US and Russian leadershiphas been essential to overcoming apolitical impasse in reaction to the

StevenBlockmansHeadofEUForeignPolicy,CEPS

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militaryescalationinSyriathathadledtotheearlysuspensionofthefirstroundoftheGenevatalksinFebruary.Asaresult,an ISSGCeasefireTaskForce (co-chairedby the US and Russia) and an ISSGHumanitarianTaskForce (chairedbytheUN) were created. While the latter hasbeenabletobrokerlimitedbutimportantimprovements inhumanitarianaccess, itis the former Task Force’s ability toimposethefirst-evercrediblecessationofhostilitiesthatisessential.

Prospects for sustainable peace in Syriaarecontingenton,first,theGenevaTalksleading to a political agreement ontransition and, second, the transitionprocessfulfillingthebenchmarksofanewanddemocraticconstitution,followedbyfree and fair parliamentary andpresidential elections in line withinternationalstandards.Buttoachieveallthat, the US and Russia consider a newceasefireasindispensabletoasuccessfulcontinuationofthepeacenegotiations.Ifpossible, a new cessation of hostilitiesshould be formalised into a ceasefireagreement,evenbeforetheconclusionoftheGenevatalks,toprovidethebasisfordecisions on security governancerequiredduringthetransitionphase.TheefficacyoftheUNSecurityCouncil,which

will need to endorse and support apolitical agreement, if it is reached inGeneva,dependsentirelyonaUS-RussianmutualunderstandingonSyria.

Meanwhile, the role of the EU in thenegotiation process is mostly limited tosupportingtheUSandRussiainfindingasolutiontotheconflict.TheEUcanassistin preventing regional powers fromunderminingtheGenevatalks.Thankstoitsroleinoverseeingtheimplementationof the nuclear deal with Iran and itsexplorationofnew fieldsof cooperation(e.g.,trade,investment,macro-economicand finance cooperation, combatingnarco-trafficking), the EU is uniquelyplaced to offer assurances to Tehran. InviewofthedeepscepticismontheArabsideof theGulf, inparticular fromSaudiArabia, about Iran’s actual intentions inthe region, it is imperative that theemergingEUrelationshipwithIranisnotseen to be at the expense of the Arabstates. The EU should refute theprevailing zero-sum attitude andencourage broad regional cooperation,particularly in supporting conflictresolutioninSyria.

As in previous situations where the EUwas not a (political) player but a payer,

theUnion’sroleinSyriawillprimarilybethat of post-conflict peacebuilder. TheUnion’smaterialsupportinimplementinga futurepeaceagreementwillbecriticaltomustering theMarshall Plan-scale aidthatSyriaandtheSyrianpeopleneedfora successful transition.Here, theEUhasmanydifferentelementstooffer:liftingofsanctions, political recognition, technicalexpertise, funding for reconstruction,long-term development assistance,creating trade and investmentopportunities, and so on. Key to thereconciliation of fractured communitieswill be the EU’s support in assuringaccountability for crimes committedduringthewar.

TheSyrianpeoplearefollowingallsignalssent by international institutions andleading governmentswith keen interest.Syrians may pressure their politicalrepresentatives to be more flexible andagree to a solution that enjoys broadinternationalsupport,andtheywillcounton the European Union to play asubstantial part in the post-conflictrehabilitationthattheyandtheircountrywillneed.

StevenBlockmansHeadofEUForeignPolicy,CEPS

EUCapabilitiesforConflictPreventionandPeacebuilding:Acapabilities-basedassessment–newpaper“EU Capabilities for Conflict PreventionandPeacebuilding:ACapabilities-BasedAssessment”developsaconceptualandmethodological framework for theimplementation of the EU-CIVCAPproject, to ensure consistency acrossdifferent work packages anddeliverables. Drawing on a range ofdifferent literatures (strategicmanagement,developmentstudies,andmilitarystudies),thepaperintroducesacapabilities-based assessment (CBA)

framework to assess existing andrequiredcapabilitiesinorderfortheEUtoachieveitsgoalsinpeacebuildingandwithaviewtoidentifyinggaps.Bylinkinggoals to capabilities, this frameworkdepartsfromthemethodsemployedbypreviousassessmentsofEUcapabilities,whichhaveonly focusedon short-termrequirements,towardsamorestrategicand holistic approach to capabilitydevelopment. The paper also outlinesthe project’s methodology and data

collectionmethods,includingethicsandrisk-related issues to be considered byEU-CIVCAP researchers conductingempirical fieldwork inconflictandpost-conflictareas.

Authors:Ana E. Juncos, Lecturer in EuropeanPolitics and EU-CIVCAP ConsortiumCoordinatorandGilberto Algar-Faria, Senior ResearchAssociateandEU-CIVCAPProjectOfficer

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ExpertNetwork

The EU-CIVCAP Expert of the month,Daniela Irrera, voices concerns aboutthe temporary measures for managingasylum seekers within the EU. The so-called Refugee Facility agreed betweenthe EU and Turkey, for example,mightbecomealong-termstrategy(clickheretoaccesstheop-ed).

In an LSE Comment Daniela Irrera alsolooksathowNGOsparticipateinsavingpeopleandalleviatingEUresponsibilitiesin rescue operations in theMediterranean following the EU-Turkeydeal(clickheretoassesstheanalysis).

Expert of the Month for March 2016,Prof Richard G. Whitman, argues thattheeffectivenessoftheEUasamediatoriscloselylinkedtothedevelopmentofitsforeign and security policy. For moredetail,see"TheimportanceofmediationfortheEU’sinternationalprofile".

Events

FutureEvents

In September 2016: ConflictPrevention and Peacebuilding Forum,Brussels.

In October 2016: The first ‘Researchmeetspolicy’seminarwilltakeplaceatCEPS, Brussels. Themain objective ofthe seminar is to engage policy-makers,practitionersand researchersindiscussionsabouthowtheresearch-policy-practice nexus can bestrengthened. These seminars willidentify present and future researchneeds, assess policy and researchcapacities,andchartawayforwardtobetter match research outputs withpolicyneeds.

On 17–18 November 2016: ExecutiveBoardMeeting,Rome.

On 17–18 November 2016:ConsortiumAssembly,Rome.

On17–18November2016:Workshopon Technologies, Procedures andPersonnel in Conflict Prevention andPeacebuilding,Rome.

PastEvents

On 11 May 2016: The first ConflictPrevention and Peacebuilding PolicyForum of the EU-CIVCAP projectfocusedon“Post-conflictSyria:WhichEU civilian capabilities forreconstruction?”tookplaceatCEPS.

Chair: Steven Blockmans, Head of EUForeignPolicy,CEPS

Speakers: AntjeHerrberg, Co-founderandCEOofMediatEUr;PierreVimont,Senior Associate at Carnegie Europeand former Executive SecretaryGeneral of the European ExternalAction Service; Mazen DarwishPresident of the Syrian Centre forMediaandFreedomofExpression.

Panellists considered avenues for theimplementation of a possible peacedealforSyria.Italsocriticallyassessedthenon-military instruments that theEUcancontributetothepost-conflictinternationalpeacebuildingeffort.Theseminar provided an ex anteevaluationoftherelevanceofthetoolsintheEU’skit,andappliedittooneofthemost dramatic crisis situations intheEU’sneighbourhood.

The lunchtime seminar was held atCEPS and engaged academics, policy-makers and other stakeholders indiscussions about currentdevelopments.

On 11 May 2016: Executive BoardMeeting,Brussels.

From left to right: Interpreter,MazenDarwish, Antje Herrberg, StevenBlockmansandPierreVimont

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Publications

Newpublication: Inanop-edpublishedintheEUobserver,ProfMichaelE.Smith(University of Aberdeen) warns Europeagainst conducting an over-zealoussearch for recriminations and remediesin its struggle against terrorism. Clickheretoaccesstheop-ed.

New policy brief: Dr Giovanni Faleg(CEPS)argues thatastableLibyawouldclose the door to Daesh. Click here toreadthepolicybrief.

NewSpecialIssue:CivilianCapacitiesforPeace Operations: A View from theWesternBalkans.

During and ever since the protractedconflictinthe1990s,theWesternBalkanstates have received internationalpeacekeeping assistance. However, inrecent years they have becomeproviders of both military and civilian

staff to peace operations abroad. TheBelgrade Centre for Security Policy(BCSP), in cooperation with theNorwegian Institute of InternationalAffairs (NUPI), conducted a baselinestudyontheWesternBalkansstatesandtheir contribution to peacebuildingoperations abroad, focusing on theirlargest untapped potential – civiliancapacities.AspecialissueoftheJournalof Regional Security, produced jointlywith the Faculty of Political Sciences atthe University of Belgrade, waspublished with articles providing in-depth analyses of the legal andinstitutionalframeworkforparticipationin peace operations abroad, whileidentifying best practices andcomparative advantages among the sixcountriescoveredbythestudy.ForeachoftheWesternBalkanstatesincludedintheresearch,aseriesofpolicybriefingswasdevelopedwithpartnerinstitutions

from the region, outlining the mostimportant findings for Albania, Bosniaand Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia,MontenegroandSerbia.

The main finding is that the civiliancapacities of these states are currentlyunder development and that there is ashared trend of deploying primarilymilitary troops and capabilities.Moreover, the basic legislation thatcoverspeacekeepingputstherespectiveMinistriesofDefenceinthedrivingseat,whichmeansthatcivilianparticipationinpeaceoperations isunder-regulated(orwithregulationdispersedacrossseveralpieces of legislation). This has led to amodest civilian participation in peaceoperationswithin these states,whilst aregionalpatternofthedeployingpoliceforcesisalsovisible.

BrexitBlog

TheEU-CIVCAPwebsitecurrentlyhostsasection on the implication of Brexit forthe UK and EU’s ability to deal withconflictpreventionandpeacebuilding.InhisblogProfSimonDuke,amemberofEU-CIVCAPExpertNetwork,argues thatinthelead-uptotheUK’sEUreferendumon 23 June 2016 foreign and securitypolicywillbeoneofthemajortopicsofdiscussion.

We inviteyoutopostcommentsbelowthe article, entitled "Global Reach andGlobalInfluence:WithouttheEU?“

For her part, Daniela Irrera argues thatBrexitwillnotonlyaffecttheEUbutalsotheinternationalsystemasawhole.Clickheretoaccesstheop-ed.

Prof Christoph Meyer, Professor ofEuropean and International Politics atKingsCollege Londonandamemberofthe EU-CIVCAP Expert Network, arguesthat Brexit would make the UK lesssecure.

Christopher Langton, Head ofIndependent Conflict Research andAnalysis(ICRA)andamemberoftheEU-

CIVCAP Expert Network recalls thathistoryshowsusthatadisunitedEuropeisadangerousplace.

IAI reflects on Italy and theRenegotiation of the UK's EUMembership and Brexit or No Brexit?PoliticalandInstitutionalImplicationsofanEUwithouttheUK.

CEPS analyses the EU deal to avoidBrexit: Take it or leave and the FinalBrexit Question: The known Plan A toremainortheunknownPlanBtoleave

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Contactus

Website:http://www.eu-civcap.net/ Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/eucivcap

Email:eu-civcap@bristol.ac.uk Twitter:https://twitter.com/eucivcap

Horizon2020funded

ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementno.:653227.Thecontentreflectsonlytheauthors’views,andtheEuropeanCommissionisnotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationitcontains.

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