erik swietlicki professor division of nuclear physics, lund university
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Sot – En möjlighet att mildra både klimatförändringar och
häloseffekterSLF, Stockholm, 24 April 2013
Erik SwietlickiProfessor
Division of Nuclear Physics,Lund University
erik.swietlicki@nuclear.lu.seP.O. Box 118, SE-21100 Lund, Sweden
Luftburna partiklar – Kyler vår planet men dödar mäniskor!
Konflikt mellan ”positiv” klimatpåverakan (avkylande) effekt och negativa hälsoeffekter.
Sot är unikt på så sätt att det är ENBART DÅLIGT!
Sot värmer och dödar!
Om vi lyckas reducera utsläppen av sot kan vi
mildra uppvärmningen av klimatet,
skydda människors hälsa.
Win-win situationReduktion av sot-emissionerna (BC)
342 W/m 2
Infraröd värmestrålning
Kortvågigsolstrålning(synligt ljus)
Växthusgaser (CO2, metan ...) förhindrar värmestrålning från att försvinna ut i rymden
Varmare klimat!
Plymer från fartyg över havet (ship tracks).
Innehåller både sot och sulfat.
Indirekt effekt av aerosoler på klimatet
http://press.iarc.fr/pr213_E.pdf
12 June 2012WHO classified diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans.
Health effects of black carbon
This report presents the results of a systematic review of evidence of the health effects of black carbon (BC). The Task Force on Health agreed that a reduction in exposure to PM2.5 containing BC and other combustion-related PM material for which BC is an indirect indicator should lead to a reduction in the health effects associated with PM. The Task Force recommended that PM2.5 should continue to be used as the primary metric in quantifying human exposure to PM and the health effects of such exposure, and for predicting the benefits of exposure reduction measures. The use of BC as an additional indicator may be useful in evaluating local action aimed at reducing the population’s exposure to combustion PM (for example, from motorized traffic).
WHO, 2012.
Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone
Black carbon and tropospheric ozone have detrimental impacts on health, climate and the environment. This assessment looks into all aspects of anthropogenic emissions of black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursors, such as methane. It also examines a large number of technically feasible measures to reduce harmful emissions and identifies 16 measures that would produce important climate, health and crop yield benefits.
UNEP/WMO, 2011.
Near-term Climate Protection and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers - A UNEP Synthesis Report
This report addresses the mitigation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and its key role in air pollution reduction, climate protection and sustainable development. SLCFs are substances in the atmosphere that contribute to global warming and have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere. The focus is on three SLCFs – black carbon, tropospheric ozone and methane – because reducing them will provide significant benefits through improved air quality and a slowing of near-term climate change.
UNEP, 2011.
The Pufendorf Institute A
CCAC – Climate and Clean Air Coalition
Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP)
http://www.unep.org/CCAC/
Report to US Congress on Black Carbon
This report synthesizes and assesses available scientific information on the current and future impacts of black carbon, and evaluates the effectiveness of available black carbon mitigation approaches and technologies for protecting climate, public health, and the environment.
USEPA, March 2012.
http://www.epa.gov/blackcarbon/
“The sign and magnitude of the net climate forcing from BC emissions are not fully known at present, largely due to remaining uncertainties regarding the effects of BC on clouds.”
The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) established an Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) in 2009 with the goal of reviewing the state of science surrounding SLCFs in the Arctic and recommending the science tasks that AMAP should conduct or promote to improve the state of knowledge and its application to policy-making.This document is a result of the work completed by the AMAP Expert Group on SLCFs. It focuses on black carbon (BC) but also considers the impact of co-emitted organic carbon (OC).
AMAP, 2011
Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?
sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären
APMDMA
Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?
sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären
SP-A
MS
sek minuter
Artificiell åldringPAM
Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?
sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären
Mas
sa
sek-min timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären
Sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålningDirekt effekt
3-λ PASS
3-λ Neph
7-λ Aethal
Klimatmodeller använder olika sätt att beräkna hur sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålning
CCNC
HTDMA
Öka
d fu
ktigh
et
sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären
Åldrade sotpartiklar tar upp vatten och kan växa till molndroppar (CCN)
Indirekt effekt
Direkt effekt
Störning av strålningsbalansen (W/m2)
Kylande Värmande
Partiklar Moln
Snö
Totalt
Sotets klimatpåverkan – Bond mfl JGR 2013
Andreae et al. (Nature, 2005)
Osä
kerh
et
Vad är klimatkänsligheten för en fördubbling av halten CO2?Växthusgaernas uppvärming maskeras av aerosolerna avkylning.
“Global Dimming” och framtidens klimat
Hög klimatkänslighet(Starkt avkylande aerosoler)Låg klimatkänslighet(Svagt avkylande aerosoler)
Temperaturökning vid enfördubbling av halten CO2
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 00.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Uppskattning av aerosolernas total strålningsstörning (W/m2)
Tem
pera
turö
knin
g (o
C)
HC Hansson, ITM, 2012
Lund University / Faculty of Engineering / Department of Physics / Division of Nuclear Physics / Axel Eriksson
Stadsmätning: Köpenhamn, Øster Søgade26 dec 2011 – 22 jan 2012
60 % av alla patriklar (PM1) innehåller en sotkärna.
Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?
Åldrade sotpartiklar
Färska sotpartiklar
Totalantal partiklar (cm-3)
Depo
nera
t ant
al p
artik
lar (
cm-3
)
Lungdeposition av partiklarLycksele
Vedelding
Trafik
Lund University / Faculty of Engineering / Department of Physics / Division of Nuclear Physics / Axel Eriksson
Centrala Köpenhamn 2012
Kemisk sammansättning Storleksfördelning
44%
14% 13%
20%
6 %3 %
Åldradesotpartiklar
Färskasotpartiklar
Modern/Fossil Carbon from 14C Analysis in Total
CarbonKristina Stenström, Johan GenbergLund University
54%46%
San Pietro Capofiume
52%48%
Ispra78%
22%
K-puszta74%
26%
Vavihill
75%
25%
Melpitz
Vavihill
K-puszta
San Pietro Capofiume
Melpitz
JRC-Ispra
Modern carbon
Fossil carbon
Vavihill Organic Aerosol Source ApportionmentData on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan
Johan Genberg et al, Lund University
WinterSummerWinterSummerWinterSummer
WinterSummer WinterSummer
Sot - Veldning Fossilt Sot
Fossilt OCOC - VeldningBiogent OC
Sot
(Genberg et al., ACP (2011)
OC
EC
• Summer: strong dominance of biogenic Organic Carbon (OC)• Winter: equal contributions from biomass and fossil fuel burning• Still significant winterly biogenic contribution
Rural southern Sweden (Vavihill) Organic Aerosol Source ApportionmentData on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan
(Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research
InfraStructure Network)
is a European Project aiming at integrating European ground-based stations equipped with advanced atmospheric probing instrumentation for aerosols, clouds, and short-lived gas-phase species.
Standard Operating Procedures for sampling and analysis of EC and light-absorbing carbon, including BC.
3/9/2008 WP 1.3 31Transportation dominate
Emissions of EC (soot) in Europe – EC Mass
Genberg et al, ACPD 2013
EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning)
BC i PM10 (µgm−3)
Fossil andel
Vedeldningandel
Öppen biomass-
förbränning
Genberg et al, ACPD 2013
EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning)
"Black Carbon - Formation, life cycle, health and climate impacts, policy and response
measures"
Workshop 18-20 June 2012
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