epidemiology situation unit · epidemiology situation unit october 22nd, 2020 ethan s. walker, phd,...

Epidemiology Situation Unit

October 22nd, 2020

Ethan S. Walker, PhD, MPHPostdoctoral Researcher

Erin O. Semmens, PhD, MPHAssociate Professor

Press Conference

Kristie Scheel, MS, MPHCOVID-19 Situation Unit Leader

Rebecca M. Elderkin, MPHCOVID-19 Testing Data Specialist

Cindy Farr, BSNCOVID-19 Incident Commander

COVID-19 Situation in Missoula County

• Situation has changed dramatically since our last press conference on August 19th when we described the situation as relatively stable

• Current environment• Epi profile• New and active cases• Incidence• Testing

• Capacity• Public health response• Testing• Healthcare

• Recommendations

https://www.missoulainfo.com/data

7-day average of new cases per day

cel.health.umt.edu/covid19

Missoula County Dashboard

https://www.missoulainfo.com/

Dashboard daily updates

Daily new cases per 100,000 people in Missoula County

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

September 30th

• 20-29 years: 51%• 60+ years: 5%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 6th

• 20-29 years: 38%• 60+ years: 14%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 13th

• 20-29 years: 30%• 60+ years: 19%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 22nd

• 20-29 years: 29%• 60+ years: 20%

Missoula County Hospitalizations

Daily Positivity Rate: 7-day average 8.03%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Daily Positivity Rate - Week 33 (10.11.2020 - 10.17.2020)

Test Events Positivity Rate

14 Day Positivity Rate: 14-day avg. 8.72%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Posi

tivi

ty R

ate

Test

eve

nts

Day

14 Day Positivity Rate - Week 32&33 (10.4 - 10.17.2020)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

0

500

1000

1500

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3000

3500

% P

osi

tivity R

ate

Test

Events

Weeks since Mar. 9

Weekly Test Events and Positivity Rate (Mar. 9 – Oct. 17, 2020)

Test Events Pos Rate

Public health capacity

• Contact tracing• Case investigation and contact tracing

process

• Why is it so important?

• Current number of close contacts in Missoula

• Impact of case/contact numbers on time it takes to perform these key steps

• Testing• Expanded testing capacity (e.g. at UM) but

increased demand

• Time between test and result

Healthcare capacity

• Healthcare capacity in the county – hospital beds, ICU beds, staffing, PPE

• Flu/cold season will place additional strains on healthcare system

MT DPHHS hospital bed status report (10/21/2020)

What comes next and what can we do

• MT has one of the highest Rt and case rates of any state

• We need to act now as we head into cold/flu season

• We need to use all of interventions available to us whenever possible, not just one

• Even if you have mild symptoms, get tested

Questions?