eohazards mitigating the risks learning from ancient ......baelo claudia 2009 corinth 2011...

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

Learning from Ancient Earthquakes

IGCP 567 (2008-2012)

Earthquake Archaeology in the Alpine-Himalayan Seismic Zone

Manuel Sintubin (Belgium)

Iain Stewart (U.K.), Tina Niemi (U.S.A.), Erhan Altunel (Turkey)

40th Anniversary IGCP, UNESCO, Paris, 22 February 2012

World Press Photograph 2012

Toshiyuki Tsunenari

GEOHAZARDS

World Press Photograph 2012

Toshiyuki Tsunenari

GEOHAZARDS

very low- to low-frequency events

World Press Photograph 2012

Toshiyuki Tsunenari

GEOHAZARDS

very low- to low-frequency events

high-impact events

World Press Photograph 2012

Toshiyuki Tsunenari

GEOHAZARDS

very low- to low-frequency events

high-impact events

highly unpredictable events

M6.1 February 21th, 2011 Christchurch earthquake

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS San Andreas Fault, California

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

San Andreas Fault, California

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

RISK

San Andreas Fault, California

San Francisco 1906

M7.0 January 12th, 2010 Haiti earthquake

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

San Andreas Fault, California

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

working on exposure, a ‘mission impossible’?

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

working on reducing vulnerability! UC Berkeley University Hall

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

HAZARD NATURAL PHENOMENON

working on strenghtening resilience!

© Getty Images

© telegraph.co.uk

World Press Photograph 2012

Yasuyoshi Chiba

M9.0 March 11th, 2011 Tohoku earthquake & tsunami

M6.3 April 6th, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

EARTHQUAKE THREAT?

ICSU, 2005

EARTHQUAKE THREAT?

Jackson 2006

EARTHQUAKE THREAT

Bartels & Van Rooyen

2011

EARTHQUAKE THREAT

2011, highest economic loss ever caused by earthquakes! 133 earthquakes causing losses

~21.000 casualties (~70% of total)

~365 billion USD economic loss

World Press Photograph 2012

Lars Lindqvist

EARTHQUAKE THREAT

© Columbia University

megacities in the Alpine-Himalayan seismic zone!

Mycenea, Greece LETHAL ATTRACTION

LETHAL ATTRACTION Bam, Iran

© Roozbeh Shivayi

M6.6 December 26th, 2003 earthquake

Delphi, Greece

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY

IN THE ALPINE-HIMALAYAN SEISMIC ZONE

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY Petra, Jordan

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY Dholavira, Gujarat, India

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY

Baelo Claudia 2009

Corinth 2011

Geological Society of America

Special Paper 471

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY Petra, Jordan

Knossos, Crete

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY

Nature, 15 September 2011

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

risk communication?

risk literacy?

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

GEOHAZARDS, STRENGHTENING SOCIETY’S RESILIENCE

World Press Photograph 2012

Yasuyoshi Chiba

World Press Photograph 2012

Yasuyoshi Chiba

ees.kuleuven.be/igcp567/

World Press Photograph 2012

Toshiyuki Tsunenari

Qutb Minar, Delhi Angkor Wat

Abdullah Khan Madrassa, Bikhara Hagia Sophia, Istanbul

Nimrod, Golan Heights

Susita, Golan Heights

Hierapolis, Turkey Phaestos, Crete

Susita, Golan Heights

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY

Crete 2008

Baelo Claudia 2009

DSF 2009

Thessaloniki 2010

Vienna 2010

Bhuj 2011

Kobe 2010

Santa Fe 2008

Memphis 2011

Corinth 2011

Morelia 2012?

Brisbane 2012

Leuven 2012

San Diego 2012

Aachen 2013?

IGCP 567 EARTHQUAKE ARCHAEOLOGY

Seismological Research Letters 79(6) 2008 “In establishing such an

earthquake culture,

telling ‘a good story’

may be good enough!” Sintubin et al., SRL 79(5), nov/dec 2008

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS Eyjafjallajökul 2010

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS Laki 1783

GEOHAZARDS, MITIGATING THE RISKS

Thordarson & Self 2003

working on exposure?