due diligence-financial & operations risk analysis & assessment

Due Diligence-Financial & Operations Risk Analysis & Assessment

National Business Institute SeminarMay 11, 2015

IronHorse is a K.C. based special situation professional services firm with practice specialties in business valuation & appraisal, forensic services & litigation support, CFO services, due diligence, and complex financial & operations restructuring/turnaround consulting.

Tony is an Adjunct Professor of Accounting at Johnson Community College in Overland Park, KS and Rockhurst University in K.C. and serves on the Small Business Reorganization Committee as well as the Fraud Task Force with the American Institute of Bankruptcy.

IronHorse has performed numerous due diligence, valuation, litigation support and restructuring engagements for clients in a variety of industries. Tony has extensive M & A experience on dozens of transactions, especially with financially distressed enterprises.

Tony Wayne, CVA, CPA, CIRA, CFF, FCPA PresidentIronHorse LLCwww.ihorsellc.comtwayne@ihorsellc.com(913) 851-0027

Risk-Volatility & Uncertainty Are The Enemy of Value• Three over-reaching questions needing answers:

Should we do the deal? At what price? Structure?- Reps, warranties, conditions, exceptions, protections

• Dimensions of risk: Ownership control-decision authority Macroeconomic Industry & Market Technological Operational Trailing & historical Future Avoidable risks, mitigation tools and strategies

Risk-Volatility & Uncertainty Are The Enemy of Value

• The critical relationships…………………………..

• Volatility and predictability

• Uncertainty

• Risk and required rate of return/multiple

• Multiple and value

Primary Risk Categories

• Macroeconomic risk

• Industry and market risk

• Operational risk

• Financial Risk

Macroeconomic Risk

• Capital markets

• Commodity & resource markets

• Political stability

• Regulatory climate

• Tax policy

• Inflation

• General economic: growth prospects, consumer demand, household income, investment

Industry & Market Risk

• Life cycle-market & product

• Availability of product & service alternatives/substitutes

• Competitive position & relative share

• Proprietary protection (if any)

• Barriers to entry

• Exit strategy alternatives-barriers to exit

• Financial size/strength relative to competition

• Customer acquisition challenges & costs

Operational Risk

• Cost structure-fixed vs variable costs

• Degree of operating leverage, break-even point, margin of safety

• Customer concentrations & dependencies

• Supplier concentrations & dependencies

• Cost management capabilities

• ERP capabilities

• Customer relationship “ownership”

• Key associate risk

Operational Risk

• Systems quality & capability

• Capital expenditure requirements

• Condition of facilities & equipment

• Litigation exposure

• Product obsolescence

• Process and product quality control

• Technology requirements & capabilities

• Human capital; union influence, HR processes & policies, on-going training & development capabilities, performance management processes/capabilities

Overvalued, Undervalued and Unrecorded Assets/Liabilities

• Importance of going concern enterprise asset valuation

• Recent appraisals-real estate, accounts receivable and inventory, equipment

• Intangible asset valuations: Proprietary interests Brands, tradenames, trademarks Customer knowledge & relationships Exclusivity Employee knowhow & capability

• Recent collateral examinations & review reports

• Importance of plant tours, physical inventory, fixed assets inventory

• Legal due diligence

Overvalued, Undervalued and Unrecorded Assets/Liabilities• Detailed audit of all balance sheet accruals.

• Audit trailing 36-48 month warranty history, warrant policies.

• Internal control compliance audit of purchasing, receiving, accounts payable & disbursement processing.

• Examine bank reconciliations for trailing 36 months (watch out for released, but unissued checks.

• Public records searches-liens, commercial credit filings, litigation, attachments, refinancings, related party & affiliated entities, guarantees, tax lien indications.

• Review revenue cycle control environment-customer master file access/maintenance, cash receipts, accounts receivable posting, account adjustments.

• Study customer returns & credit memo history, customer return policies,

Property Assets

• Fixed assets physical inventory

• Examine general ledger to fixed asset system reconciliations

• Plant tours

• Study & analyze trailing 36-48 month maintenance & repair history

• Examine commercial property & casualty insurance coverages & claims history trailing 48-60 months

• Assess predicative, preventive maintenance systems, processes & capability

• Review capital budgeting capabilities

• Trailing 48 months capital expenditure investments/history

Property Assets

• Review capital expenditure authorization processes & policies

• Review post-audit of capital expenditures

• Review IT security & controls

• Recent real estate & equipment appraisals

• Audit all major fixed asset additions & dispositions trailing 48 months

Tax Considerations

• Obviously, consider engaging qualified, competent professional to coordinate the tax due diligence.

• Tax considerations of the deal structure can be substantial from perspective of buyer and seller.

• Stock vs asset sale.• Availability of NOL carry-forwards.• Legacy exposure-can carry forward to successor entity in some instances-sales & use

tax, ad valorem taxes, some employment taxes.• Other carry-forward potential-ITC, capital losses, etc.• Flow-through vs C-corporation considerations• Most transactions are asset purchases by a NewCo-Should be extemely persuasive

rationale for buying the stock and all the legacy claims exposure that comes with it.• Use of tax professional in drafting the APA, structuring the deal• Do NOT let the tax tail wag the dog!!!!!

Financial Analysis• Critical importance of a comprehensive, detailed financial value model & supporting

analysis.

• Importance of industry benchmarking comparatives for context-will impact required rate of return, estimated range of value build-up.

• Range of value estimation

• Four building block foundational perspective: Liquidity & efficiency Profitability Solvency Value

• Vertical analysis-common size financials

• Horizontal analysis of common size financials, critical building block financial & operating metrics

Liquidity & Efficiency• Net working capital turnover-velocity

• Simulated borrowing base

• Current & acid test ratio

• Days cost of goods sold (COGS) in trade accounts payable

• Accounts receivable turnover, days sales in AR

• Inventory turnover, days COGS in inventory-NOTE> ALWAYS analyze in terms of customer service level performance.

• Aged accounts receivable analysis

• Aged inventory analysis

• Inventory quality ratio

• ROI to inventory analysis by SKU

Profitability• EBITDA % to revenue

• Gross profit % to revenue

• SGA (operating expenses) % to revenue

• Return on average assets

• Return on equity

• Customer profitability

• Product profitability

• Detailed expense trends by key category-% to revenue

• VOLATILITY is the # 1 enemy of VALUE!!

• Focus on trends, variances, unusual amounts, inconsistencies, exceptions

Profitability

• Operating risk analysis

Degree of operating leverage

Break-even analysis

Margin of safety analysis

Contribution margin after variable costs analysis

CVPA analysis necessary for financial projections

Critical model mistakes by omitting operating risk analysis

Solvency

• Leverage (debt to equity) ratio

• Total & secured debt turnover

• Debt service coverage ratio

• Sustainable sales growth rate

• Altman 4-variable Z-factor trend analysis

Value

• Beware “romance of the deal” momentum & pressures.

• There may be “agendas” at play, so proceed with extreme caution.

• The need for independent buy or sell-side due diligence.

• Know with confidence the founding owner of his/her “first born” attaches tremendous intrinsic emotional value he/she will never be compensated for.

• The acquirer is buying an expected future stream of cash, in the face of uncertainty & risk.

• The “auction” vs exclusivity tension.

• Financial vs. strategic buyers-strategic premiums.

Range of Value Model

• Challenge in finding/applying comparable transactions.

• Methodologies:

Net present value of projected cash flows using risk-adjusted cost of capital (required rate of return).

Trailing, normalized capitalized EBITDA using firm cap rate.

Trailing, normalized EBITDA using industry multiple.

Excess assets/Treasury method

Reasonable rate of return using industry ROI

Maximum leveraged purchase price using expected debt service coverage & simulated borrowing base

Normalization Adjustments

• Owner/officer compensation

• Ownership distributions

• Related party & affiliated due to/from impacts

• Impact of anticipated strategic actions: Consolidation Reduction in Force Asset dispositions-business units, locations, equipment, etc. Product line rationalization Synergies

• One-time start-up impacts, inefficiencies

Due Diligence Checklist & Worksheets