development of cargo aircraft market in russia denis ilyin, senior vice-president for strategy &...

Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia

DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-Presidentfor Strategy & Commercial

Moscow, Russia18.06.08

next

World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025RTKs, billions

800

600

400

200

History Forecast High

Base

Low

5.3% growthper year

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Average annualgrowth

2005-2025

High 7.1%Base 6.2%Low 5.4%

nextprevious

1

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast

Average Growth in %

Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6.2%

Domestic China

Intra-Asia

Asia-North America

Europe-Asia

Latin America-North America

Latin America-Europe

Europe-North America

Intra-Europe

Europe-Middle East

North America

Russia

Europe-Africa

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

nextprevious

2

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast

Total volume in 2007г~ $80 billion

190 billion tons / kilometer41 mln tons

Market Growth Forecast (2020):

- On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA)

- On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast)

Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft

Charter Services

Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft

Scheduled Services

1879 Aircraft ~98,5%$78,8 billion

DC-10, MD-11

A-300-330

Ил-96

Ту-204

B-747

479 AC ~1,4% $1 billion

Ан-124-100

Ил-76

Ан-12

C-130

28 AC An-124-100 $771 mln per year (2007)~ 70% market share

311 AC В747F $30 billion per year (2007)~ 38% market share

nextprevious

3

Scheduled cargo operations market (2007)

$80 billion

Ramp aircraft operations market 2007

$1 billion

Ukraine and other countries

26%

Russian civil

aviation74 %

By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies:

1. Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers.

2. Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%) .

Europeancountries

24%

Russian civil aviation

1,4 %

othercountries

7,6 %

USA31%

Asian andPacificRegion

countries1,4 %

nextprevious

4

Ch

art

er

Se

rvic

es

Sc

he

du

led

S

erv

ice

s

Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft)

Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft) Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft)

An-124

Il-76

An-124

Il-76

В747FВ747F

≤10 tons; 3; 14%

10-30 Tons; 5; 24%

≥ 100 tons; 12; 16%

30-100 tons; 1; 16%

≤10tons; 91; 63%

10-30 Tons; 28; 16%

≥ 100 tons; 16; 11%

30-100 tons; 15; 10%

≤10 tons; 28; 21%

Medium 10-30Tons; 12; 9%

≥ 100 tons; 55; 39%

30-100 tons; 41; 31%

≤10 tons; 8; 11%

10-30 Tons; 24; 36%

≥ 100 tons; 20; 27%

30-100 tons; 19; 26%

5

previous next

30-100 tons; 19; 25%

10-30 tons; 24; 32%

≥100 tons; 25; 32%

≤ 10 tons; 8; 11%

30-100 tons; 6; 29%

≥100 tons; 12; 57%

10-30 tons; 3; 14%

Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast

Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft)

212

B 747

B 747

6

nextprevious

Total volume

$80 billion

Total volume

$105 billion

Total volume

$55 billion

Market volume

$160 billion

Russia 1,3%

OtherCountries

98,6%

OtherCountries

92,0%

OtherCountries

84,0%

OtherCountries

98,7%

Russia 1,4%

Russia 8,0% Russia

16,0%

7

Europe

India

Middle East, Africa

Singapore

Krasnoyarsk

KhabarovskMoscow

China

St.Petersburg

USA

IndiaSingapore

Krasnoyarsk

Khabarovsk

China

Canada

Moscow

Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia

Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia

USA Canada

nextprevious

Europe

DC-10, MD-11 B-747, 777

previous

MoscowKrasnoyarsk

8

KJA

UUS

MOW

LAX

MIL LED

FRA

NRT

NGO

HKG

SIN

KUL

DEL

TLV

NYC

YYCHOU

ORD

NBO

AMSLHR

BJS

SHA

next

B 747-8F

Total Aircraft Aircraft Type Delivery/Retirement Schedule Current Status

2 2 x Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIA, BIB)

April 2004, July 2005 Retired in 2007-2008

3 1 x Boeing 747-300SF (VP-BIC) October 2005 In Service

4 1 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BID) June 2006 (NCA) In Service

6 2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BII, BIJ) March 2007 (NCA) In Service

5 2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BIA) September 2007 Retired in 2007

6 Boeing 747- 400ERF (VP-BIG) October 2007 (Boeing) In Service

8 Boeing 747-400ERF February & April 2008 (Boeing) In Service

7 Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIB) March 2008 Retired in 2008

8-12 Boeing 747-8 2010-2013 (Boeing) On Order

nextprevious

9

2004

2008

2007

2006

2005

2020

2010-13

Boeing 747-200

nextprevious

10

Boeing 747-200

2

Boeing 747-200

+ 1

Boeing 747-200

+ 1

2 x Boeing 747-200

1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF

+3

Boeing 747-400 ERF

+ 2

Boeing 747 – 8F

+ 5

Boeing 747-8F

+ 5

Boeing 747-200

- 1

- 1

11

nextprevious

Cities with population morethan 1mln people

Regions of significanteconomic growth

Source: Ministry of Economic of RFFederal State Statistics Service

nextprevious

12

Oil & Gas Exploration fields

MOSCOW (SVO)

YUZHNO-SAKHALINSK

(UUS)KRASNOYARSK (KJA)

KHABAROVSK (KHV)

ST. PETERSBURG (LED)

AirBridgeCargo Hubs ABC Schedule Service Air Feeder Service

Road Feeder Service

Ту-204

B-737, 757, 767

next

A320F, A330F

While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010

Aircraft Aircraft Type Delivery Schedule Status

1-2 Tupolev-204C 2009 Quarter 1 In production

3-5 Tupolev-204C Until 2010 On Option

nextprevious

13

exitprevious