daniela rus _ rise of the robots.pdf

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 1/9

COMMENT July/August 2015 Issue

TheRobotsAreComingHowTechnologicalBreakthroughsWillTransformEverydayLife

22 9

R obotshavethepotentialtogreatlyimprovethequalityoourlivesathome,atwork,andatplay.Customizedrobotsworkingalongsidepeoplewillcreatenewjobs,improvethequalityoexistingjobs,andgivepeoplemoretimetofocusonwhattheyndinteresting,important,andexciting.Commutingtoworkindriverlesscarswillallowpeopletoread,replytoemails,watchvideos,andevennap.Afterdroppingoonepassenger,adriverlesscarwillpickupitsnextrider,coordinatingwiththeotherselfdrivingcarsinasystemdesignedtominimizetracandwaittimesandallthewhiledrivingmoresafelyandecientlythanhumans.

Yettheobjectiveoroboticsisnottoreplacehumansbymechanizingandautomatingtasks;itistondwaysformachinestoassistandcollaboratewithhumansmoreeectively.Robotsarebetterthanhumansatcrunchingnumbers,liftingheavyobjects,and,incertaincontexts,movingwithprecision.Humansarebetterthanrobotsatabstraction,generalization,andcreativethinking,thankstotheirabilitytoreason,drawfrompriorexperience,andimagine.Byworkingtogether,robotsandhumanscanaugmentandcomplementeachothersskills.

YUYASHINO/REUTERS

Ahundredhumanoidcommunicationrobotscalled

ByDanielaRus

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 2/9

Still,therearesignicantgapsbetweenwhererobotsaretodayandthepromiseoafutureeraopervasiverobotics,whenrobotswillbeintegratedintothefabricodailylife,becomingascommonascomputersandsmartphonesaretoday,performingmanyspecializedtasks,andoftenoperatingsidebysidewithhumans.Currentresearchaimstoimprovethewayrobotsaremade,howtheymovethemselvesandmanipulateobjects,howtheyreason,howtheyperceivetheirenvironments,andhowtheycooperatewithoneanotherandwithhumans.

Creatingaworldopervasive,customizedrobotsisamajorchallenge,butitsscopeisnotunlikethatotheproblemcomputerscientistsfacednearlythreedecadesago,whentheydreamedoaworldwherecomputerswouldbecomeintegralpartsohumansocieties.InthewordsoMarkWeiser,achiescientistatXeroxsPaloAltoResearchCenterinthe1990s,whoisconsideredthefatherosocalledubiquitouscomputing:Themostprofoundtechnologiesarethosethatdisappear.Theyweavethemselvesintothefabricoeverydaylifeuntiltheyareindistinguishablefromit.Computershavealreadyachievedthatkindoubiquity.Inthefuture,robotswill,too.

YOUROWNPERSONALROBOT

Arobotscapabilitiesaredenedbywhatitsbodycandoandwhatitsbraincancomputeandcontrol.Todaysrobotscanperformbasiclocomotionontheground,intheair,andinthewater.Theycanrecognizeobjects,mapnewenvironments,performpickandplaceoperationsonanassemblyline,imitatesimplehumanmotions,acquiresimpleskills,andevenactincoordinationwithotherrobotsandhumanpartners.OneplacewheretheseskillsareondisplayisattheannualRoboCup,arobotsoccerWorldCup,duringwhichteamsorobotscoordinatetodribble,pass,shoot,andscoregoals.

ArobotintheRoboticKitchenprototypecreatedbyMoleyRoboticscooksacrabsoupatthecompany'sboothattheworld'slargestindustrialtechnologyfair,the

Computershavealreadyachievedubiquityineverydaylife.Inthefuture,robotswill,too.

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 3/9

Thisrangeofunctionalityhasbeenmadepossiblebyinnovationsinrobotdesignandadvancesinthealgorithmsthatguiderobotperception,reasoning,control,andcoordination.Roboticshasbenetedenormouslyfromprogressinmanyareas:computation,datastorage,thescaleandperformanceotheInternet,wirelesscommunication,electronics,anddesignandmanufacturingtools.ThecostsohardwarehavedroppedevenastheelectromechanicalcomponentsusedinroboticdeviceshavebecomemorereliableandtheknowledgebaseavailabletointelligentmachineshasgrownthankstotheInternet.Ithasbecomepossibletoimaginetheleapfromthepersonalcomputertothepersonalrobot.

Inrecentyears,thepromiseoroboticshasbeenparticularlyvisibleinthetransportationsector.Manymajorcarmanufacturershaveannouncedplanstobuildselfdrivingcarsandpredictthattheywillbeabletosellthemtoconsumersby2020.Googlesselfdrivingcarshavenowdrivenclosetotwomillionmileswithonly11minoraccidents,mostothemcausedbyhumanerror;thecompanywillbegintestingthecarsonpublicroadsthissummer.Severaluniversitiesaroundtheworldhavealsolaunchedselfdrivingcarprojects.Meanwhile,California,Florida,Michigan,andNevadahaveallpassedlegislationtoallowautonomouscarsontheirroads,andmanyotherstatelegislaturesintheUnitedStatesareconsideringsuchmeasures.Recently,anannualreportbySingaporesLandTransportationAuthoritypredictedthatsharedautonomousdrivingeetsoselfdrivingcarsprovidingcustomizedtransportationcouldreducethenumberocarsontheroadbyaround80percent,decreasingtraveltimesandpollution.

Selfdrivingcarscouldreducethenumberofautomobilesontheroadbyaround80percent,decreasingtraveltimesandpollution.

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 4/9

Selfdrivingcarswouldnotmerelyrepresentaprivateluxury:asthecostoproducingandmaintainingthemfalls,theirspreadcouldgreatlyimprovepublictransportation.Imagineamasstransitsystemwithtwolayers:anetworkoflargevehicles,suchastrainsandbuses,thatwouldhandlelongdistancetripsandcomplementaryeetsosmallselfdrivingcarsthatwouldoershort,customizedrides,pickinguppassengersatmajorhubsandalsorespondingtoindividualrequestsforridesfromalmostanywhere.In2014,theFutureUrbanMobilityproject,whichispartotheSingaporeMITAllianceforResearchandTechnology,invitedthepublictorideonselfdrivingbuggiesthatresembledgolcartsattheChineseGardeninSingapore,aparkwithwindingalleyssurroundedbytrees,benches,andstrollingpeople.Morethan500peopletookpart.Theroboticvehiclesstayedonthepaths,avoidedpedestrians,andbroughttheirpassengerstotheirselecteddestinations.

Sofar,thatleveloautonomousdrivingperformancehasbeenpossibleonlyinlowspeed,lowcomplexityenvironments.Roboticvehiclescannotyethandleallthecomplexitiesodrivinginthewild,suchasinclementweatherandcomplextracsituations.Theseissuesarethefocusoongoingresearch.

ASYOULIKEIT

Thebroadadoptionorobotswillrequireanaturalintegrationointelligentmachinesintothehumanworldratherthananintegrationohumansintothemachinesworld.Despiterecentsignicantprogresstowardthatgoal,problemsremaininthreeimportantareas.Itstilltakestoomuchtimetomakenewrobots,todaysrobotsarestillquitelimitedintheirabilitytoperceiveandreasonabouttheirsurroundings,androboticcommunicationisstillquitebrittle.

Manydierenttypesorobotsareavailabletoday,buttheyalltakeagreatdealotimetoproduce.Todaysrobotbodiesarediculttoadaptorextend,andthusrobotsstillhavelimitedcapabilitiesandlimitedapplications.Rapidlyfabricatingnewrobots,addonmodules,xtures,andspecializedtoolsisnotarealoption,astheprocessodesign,assembly,andprogrammingislongandcumbersome.Whatsneededaredesignandfabricationtoolsthatwillspeedupthecustomizedmanufacturingorobots.IbelongtoateamoresearchersfromHarvard,MIT,andtheUniversityofPennsylvaniacurrentlyworkingtocreatearobotcompilerthatcouldtakeaparticularspecicationforexample,Iwantarobottotidyuptheroomandcomputearobotdesign,afabricationplan,andacustomprogrammingenvironmentforusingtherobot.

Robot,youcandrivemycar:Googlesselfdrivingcars,May2014.

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 5/9

Bettercustomizedrobotswouldhelpautomateawiderangeotasks.Considermanufacturing.Currently,theuseofautomationinfactoriesisnotuniformacrossallindustries.Thecarindustryautomatesapproximately80percentoitsassemblyprocesses,whichconsistomanyrepeatableactions.Incontrast,onlyaroundtenpercentotheassemblyprocessesforelectronics,suchascellphones,areautomated,becausesuchproductschangefrequentlyandarehighlycustomized.Tailormaderobotscouldhelpclosethisgapbyreducingsetuptimesforautomationinindustriesthatrelyoncustomizationandwhoseproductshaveshortlifecycles.Specializedrobotswouldknowwherethingsarestored,howtoputthingstogether,howtointeractwithpeople,howtotransportpartsfromoneplacetoanother,howtopackthings,andhowtorecongureanassemblyline.Inafactoryequippedwithsuchrobots,humanworkerswouldstillbeincontrol,androbotswouldassistthem.

DOESNOTCOMPUTE

Asecondchallengeinvolvedinintegratingrobotsintoeverydaylifeistheneedtoincreasetheirreasoningabilities.Todaysrobotscanperformonlylimitedreasoningduetothefactthattheircomputationsarecarefullyspecied.Everythingarobotdoesisspelledoutwithsimpleinstructions,andthescopeotherobotsreasoningisentirelycontainedinitsprogram.Furthermore,arobotsperceptionoitsenvironmentthroughitssensorsisquitelimited.Tasksthathumanstakeforgrantedforexample,answeringthequestion,HaveIbeenherebefore?areextremelydicultforrobots.Robotsusesensorssuchascamerasandscannerstorecordthefeaturesotheplacestheyvisit.Butitishardforamachinetodierentiatebetweenfeaturesthatbelongtoasceneithasalreadyobservedandfeaturesoanewscenethathappenstocontainsomeothesameobjects.Ingeneral,robotscollecttoomuchlowleveldata.Currentresearchonmachinelearningisfocusedondevelopingalgorithmsthatcanhelpextracttheinformationthatwillbeusefultoarobotfromlargedatasets.Suchalgorithmswillhelparobotsummarizeitshistoryandthussignicantlyreduce,forexample,thenumberoimagesitrequirestoanswerthatquestion,HaveIbeenherebefore?

Bipedalhumanoidrobot"Atlas",primarilydevelopedbytheAmericanroboticscompanyBostonDynamics,ispresentedtothemediainHongKong,October2

Robotsalsocannotcopewithunexpectedsituations.Ifarobotencounterscircumstancesthatithasnotbeenprogrammedtohandleorthatfalloutsidethescopeofitscapabilities,itentersanerrorstateandstopsoperating.Often,therobotcannotcommunicatethecauseoftheerror.Robotsneedtolearnhowtoadjusttheirprogramssoastoadapttotheirsurroundingsandinteractmoreeasilywithpeople,theirenvironments,andothermachines.

NICKYLOH/COURTESYREUTERS

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 6/9

Today,everyonewithInternetaccessincludingrobotscaneasilyobtainincredibleamountsoinformation.Robotscouldtakeadvantageothisinformationtomakebetterdecisions.Forexample,adogwalkingrobotcouldndweatherreportsonlineandthenconsultitsownstoreddatatodeterminetheideallengthoawalkandtheoptimalroute:perhapsashortwalkiitshotorraining,oralongwalktoanearbyparkwhereotherdogwalkerstendtocongregateifitspleasantout.

ROBOTSLITTLEHELPER

Theintegrationorobotsintoeverydaylifewillalsorequiremorereliablecommunicationbetweenrobotsandbetweenrobotsandhumans.Despiteadvancesinwirelesstechnology,impedimentsstillhamperrobottorobotcommunication.Itremainsdiculttomodelorpredicthowwellrobotswillbeabletocommunicateinanygivenenvironment.Moreover,methodsocontrollingrobotsthatrelyoncurrentcommunicationstechnologiesarehinderedbynoiseextraneoussignalsanddatathatmakeithardtosendandreceivecommands.Robotsneedmorereliableapproachestocommunicationthatwouldguaranteethebandwidththeyneed,whentheyneedit.Onepromisingnewapproachtothisprobleminvolvesmeasuringthequalityocommunicationaroundarobotlocallyinsteadotryingtopredictitusingmodels.

Communicationbetweenrobotsandpeopleisalsocurrentlyquitelimited.Althoughaudiosensorsandspeechrecognitionsoftwareallowrobotstounderstandandrespondtobasicspokencommands(Movetothedoor),suchinteractionsarebothnarrowandshallowintermsoscopeandvocabulary.Moreextensivehumanrobotcommunicationwouldenablerobotstoaskhumansforhelp.Itturnsoutthatwhenarobotisperformingatask,evenatinyamountohumaninterventioncompletelychangesthewaytherobotdealswithaproblemandgreatlyempowersthemachinetodomore.MyresearchgroupatMITsComputerScienceandArticialIntelligenceLaboratoryrecentlydevelopedasystemthatallowedgroupsorobotstoassembleIKEAfurniture.Therobotsworkedtogetheraslongasthepartsneededfortheassemblywerewithinreach.Whenapart,suchasatableleg,wasoutoreach,arobotcouldrecognizetheproblemandaskhumanstohanditthepartusingEnglishlanguagesentences.Afterreceivingthepart,therobotswereabletoresumetheassemblytask.Arobotsabilitytounderstanderrorandenlisthumanhelprepresentsasteptowardmoresynergisticcollaborationsbetweenhumansandrobots.

NICKYLOH/COURTESYREUTERS

HumanoidcommunicationrobotKiroboshakeshandswithTomotakaTakahashi,CEOofRoboGarageCo,June26,2013.

18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 7/9

DOMOARIGATO,MR.ROBOTO

Personalcomputers,wirelesstechnology,smartphones,andeasytodownloadappshavealreadydemocratizedaccesstoinformationandcomputationandtransformedthewaypeopleliveandwork.Intheyearstocome,robotswillextendthisdigitalrevolutionfurtherintothephysicalrealmanddeeperintoeverydaylife,withconsequencesthatwillbeequallyprofound.

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18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 8/9

Inarobotrichworld,peoplemaywakeupinthemorningandsendpersonalshoppingrobotstothesupermarkettobringbackfruitandmilkforbreakfast.Oncethere,therobotsmayencounterpeoplewhoaretheretodotheirownshoppingbutwhotraveledtothestoreinselfdrivingcarsandwhoareusingselfdrivingshoppingcartsthattakethemdirectlytotheitemstheywantandthenprovideinformationonthefreshness,provenance,andnutritionalvalueothegoodsandthatcanalsohelpvisuallyimpairedshoppersnavigatethestoresafely.Inaretailenvironmentshapedbypervasiverobotics,peoplewillsuperviseandsupportrobotswhileoeringcustomersadviceandservicewithahumantouch.Inturn,robotswillsupportpeoplebyautomatingsomephysicallydicultortediousjobs:stockingshelves,cleaningwindows,sweepingsidewalks,deliveringorderstocustomers.

Personalcomputers,wirelesstechnology,smartphones,andeasytodownloadappshavealreadydemocratizedaccesstoinformationandcomputationandtransformedthewaypeopleliveandwork.Intheyearstocome,robotswillextendthisdigitalrevolutionfurtherintothephysicalrealmanddeeperintoeverydaylife,withconsequencesthatwillbeequallyprofound.

COMMENTJUN 16, 2015

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