daniela rus _ rise of the robots.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 1/9
COMMENT July/August 2015 Issue
TheRobotsAreComingHowTechnologicalBreakthroughsWillTransformEverydayLife
22 9
R obotshavethepotentialtogreatlyimprovethequalityoourlivesathome,atwork,andatplay.Customizedrobotsworkingalongsidepeoplewillcreatenewjobs,improvethequalityoexistingjobs,andgivepeoplemoretimetofocusonwhattheyndinteresting,important,andexciting.Commutingtoworkindriverlesscarswillallowpeopletoread,replytoemails,watchvideos,andevennap.Afterdroppingoonepassenger,adriverlesscarwillpickupitsnextrider,coordinatingwiththeotherselfdrivingcarsinasystemdesignedtominimizetracandwaittimesandallthewhiledrivingmoresafelyandecientlythanhumans.
Yettheobjectiveoroboticsisnottoreplacehumansbymechanizingandautomatingtasks;itistondwaysformachinestoassistandcollaboratewithhumansmoreeectively.Robotsarebetterthanhumansatcrunchingnumbers,liftingheavyobjects,and,incertaincontexts,movingwithprecision.Humansarebetterthanrobotsatabstraction,generalization,andcreativethinking,thankstotheirabilitytoreason,drawfrompriorexperience,andimagine.Byworkingtogether,robotsandhumanscanaugmentandcomplementeachothersskills.
YUYASHINO/REUTERS
Ahundredhumanoidcommunicationrobotscalled
ByDanielaRus
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 2/9
Still,therearesignicantgapsbetweenwhererobotsaretodayandthepromiseoafutureeraopervasiverobotics,whenrobotswillbeintegratedintothefabricodailylife,becomingascommonascomputersandsmartphonesaretoday,performingmanyspecializedtasks,andoftenoperatingsidebysidewithhumans.Currentresearchaimstoimprovethewayrobotsaremade,howtheymovethemselvesandmanipulateobjects,howtheyreason,howtheyperceivetheirenvironments,andhowtheycooperatewithoneanotherandwithhumans.
Creatingaworldopervasive,customizedrobotsisamajorchallenge,butitsscopeisnotunlikethatotheproblemcomputerscientistsfacednearlythreedecadesago,whentheydreamedoaworldwherecomputerswouldbecomeintegralpartsohumansocieties.InthewordsoMarkWeiser,achiescientistatXeroxsPaloAltoResearchCenterinthe1990s,whoisconsideredthefatherosocalledubiquitouscomputing:Themostprofoundtechnologiesarethosethatdisappear.Theyweavethemselvesintothefabricoeverydaylifeuntiltheyareindistinguishablefromit.Computershavealreadyachievedthatkindoubiquity.Inthefuture,robotswill,too.
YOUROWNPERSONALROBOT
Arobotscapabilitiesaredenedbywhatitsbodycandoandwhatitsbraincancomputeandcontrol.Todaysrobotscanperformbasiclocomotionontheground,intheair,andinthewater.Theycanrecognizeobjects,mapnewenvironments,performpickandplaceoperationsonanassemblyline,imitatesimplehumanmotions,acquiresimpleskills,andevenactincoordinationwithotherrobotsandhumanpartners.OneplacewheretheseskillsareondisplayisattheannualRoboCup,arobotsoccerWorldCup,duringwhichteamsorobotscoordinatetodribble,pass,shoot,andscoregoals.
ArobotintheRoboticKitchenprototypecreatedbyMoleyRoboticscooksacrabsoupatthecompany'sboothattheworld'slargestindustrialtechnologyfair,the
Computershavealreadyachievedubiquityineverydaylife.Inthefuture,robotswill,too.
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 3/9
Thisrangeofunctionalityhasbeenmadepossiblebyinnovationsinrobotdesignandadvancesinthealgorithmsthatguiderobotperception,reasoning,control,andcoordination.Roboticshasbenetedenormouslyfromprogressinmanyareas:computation,datastorage,thescaleandperformanceotheInternet,wirelesscommunication,electronics,anddesignandmanufacturingtools.ThecostsohardwarehavedroppedevenastheelectromechanicalcomponentsusedinroboticdeviceshavebecomemorereliableandtheknowledgebaseavailabletointelligentmachineshasgrownthankstotheInternet.Ithasbecomepossibletoimaginetheleapfromthepersonalcomputertothepersonalrobot.
Inrecentyears,thepromiseoroboticshasbeenparticularlyvisibleinthetransportationsector.Manymajorcarmanufacturershaveannouncedplanstobuildselfdrivingcarsandpredictthattheywillbeabletosellthemtoconsumersby2020.Googlesselfdrivingcarshavenowdrivenclosetotwomillionmileswithonly11minoraccidents,mostothemcausedbyhumanerror;thecompanywillbegintestingthecarsonpublicroadsthissummer.Severaluniversitiesaroundtheworldhavealsolaunchedselfdrivingcarprojects.Meanwhile,California,Florida,Michigan,andNevadahaveallpassedlegislationtoallowautonomouscarsontheirroads,andmanyotherstatelegislaturesintheUnitedStatesareconsideringsuchmeasures.Recently,anannualreportbySingaporesLandTransportationAuthoritypredictedthatsharedautonomousdrivingeetsoselfdrivingcarsprovidingcustomizedtransportationcouldreducethenumberocarsontheroadbyaround80percent,decreasingtraveltimesandpollution.
Selfdrivingcarscouldreducethenumberofautomobilesontheroadbyaround80percent,decreasingtraveltimesandpollution.
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 4/9
Selfdrivingcarswouldnotmerelyrepresentaprivateluxury:asthecostoproducingandmaintainingthemfalls,theirspreadcouldgreatlyimprovepublictransportation.Imagineamasstransitsystemwithtwolayers:anetworkoflargevehicles,suchastrainsandbuses,thatwouldhandlelongdistancetripsandcomplementaryeetsosmallselfdrivingcarsthatwouldoershort,customizedrides,pickinguppassengersatmajorhubsandalsorespondingtoindividualrequestsforridesfromalmostanywhere.In2014,theFutureUrbanMobilityproject,whichispartotheSingaporeMITAllianceforResearchandTechnology,invitedthepublictorideonselfdrivingbuggiesthatresembledgolcartsattheChineseGardeninSingapore,aparkwithwindingalleyssurroundedbytrees,benches,andstrollingpeople.Morethan500peopletookpart.Theroboticvehiclesstayedonthepaths,avoidedpedestrians,andbroughttheirpassengerstotheirselecteddestinations.
Sofar,thatleveloautonomousdrivingperformancehasbeenpossibleonlyinlowspeed,lowcomplexityenvironments.Roboticvehiclescannotyethandleallthecomplexitiesodrivinginthewild,suchasinclementweatherandcomplextracsituations.Theseissuesarethefocusoongoingresearch.
ASYOULIKEIT
Thebroadadoptionorobotswillrequireanaturalintegrationointelligentmachinesintothehumanworldratherthananintegrationohumansintothemachinesworld.Despiterecentsignicantprogresstowardthatgoal,problemsremaininthreeimportantareas.Itstilltakestoomuchtimetomakenewrobots,todaysrobotsarestillquitelimitedintheirabilitytoperceiveandreasonabouttheirsurroundings,androboticcommunicationisstillquitebrittle.
Manydierenttypesorobotsareavailabletoday,buttheyalltakeagreatdealotimetoproduce.Todaysrobotbodiesarediculttoadaptorextend,andthusrobotsstillhavelimitedcapabilitiesandlimitedapplications.Rapidlyfabricatingnewrobots,addonmodules,xtures,andspecializedtoolsisnotarealoption,astheprocessodesign,assembly,andprogrammingislongandcumbersome.Whatsneededaredesignandfabricationtoolsthatwillspeedupthecustomizedmanufacturingorobots.IbelongtoateamoresearchersfromHarvard,MIT,andtheUniversityofPennsylvaniacurrentlyworkingtocreatearobotcompilerthatcouldtakeaparticularspecicationforexample,Iwantarobottotidyuptheroomandcomputearobotdesign,afabricationplan,andacustomprogrammingenvironmentforusingtherobot.
Robot,youcandrivemycar:Googlesselfdrivingcars,May2014.
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 5/9
Bettercustomizedrobotswouldhelpautomateawiderangeotasks.Considermanufacturing.Currently,theuseofautomationinfactoriesisnotuniformacrossallindustries.Thecarindustryautomatesapproximately80percentoitsassemblyprocesses,whichconsistomanyrepeatableactions.Incontrast,onlyaroundtenpercentotheassemblyprocessesforelectronics,suchascellphones,areautomated,becausesuchproductschangefrequentlyandarehighlycustomized.Tailormaderobotscouldhelpclosethisgapbyreducingsetuptimesforautomationinindustriesthatrelyoncustomizationandwhoseproductshaveshortlifecycles.Specializedrobotswouldknowwherethingsarestored,howtoputthingstogether,howtointeractwithpeople,howtotransportpartsfromoneplacetoanother,howtopackthings,andhowtorecongureanassemblyline.Inafactoryequippedwithsuchrobots,humanworkerswouldstillbeincontrol,androbotswouldassistthem.
DOESNOTCOMPUTE
Asecondchallengeinvolvedinintegratingrobotsintoeverydaylifeistheneedtoincreasetheirreasoningabilities.Todaysrobotscanperformonlylimitedreasoningduetothefactthattheircomputationsarecarefullyspecied.Everythingarobotdoesisspelledoutwithsimpleinstructions,andthescopeotherobotsreasoningisentirelycontainedinitsprogram.Furthermore,arobotsperceptionoitsenvironmentthroughitssensorsisquitelimited.Tasksthathumanstakeforgrantedforexample,answeringthequestion,HaveIbeenherebefore?areextremelydicultforrobots.Robotsusesensorssuchascamerasandscannerstorecordthefeaturesotheplacestheyvisit.Butitishardforamachinetodierentiatebetweenfeaturesthatbelongtoasceneithasalreadyobservedandfeaturesoanewscenethathappenstocontainsomeothesameobjects.Ingeneral,robotscollecttoomuchlowleveldata.Currentresearchonmachinelearningisfocusedondevelopingalgorithmsthatcanhelpextracttheinformationthatwillbeusefultoarobotfromlargedatasets.Suchalgorithmswillhelparobotsummarizeitshistoryandthussignicantlyreduce,forexample,thenumberoimagesitrequirestoanswerthatquestion,HaveIbeenherebefore?
Bipedalhumanoidrobot"Atlas",primarilydevelopedbytheAmericanroboticscompanyBostonDynamics,ispresentedtothemediainHongKong,October2
Robotsalsocannotcopewithunexpectedsituations.Ifarobotencounterscircumstancesthatithasnotbeenprogrammedtohandleorthatfalloutsidethescopeofitscapabilities,itentersanerrorstateandstopsoperating.Often,therobotcannotcommunicatethecauseoftheerror.Robotsneedtolearnhowtoadjusttheirprogramssoastoadapttotheirsurroundingsandinteractmoreeasilywithpeople,theirenvironments,andothermachines.
NICKYLOH/COURTESYREUTERS
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 6/9
Today,everyonewithInternetaccessincludingrobotscaneasilyobtainincredibleamountsoinformation.Robotscouldtakeadvantageothisinformationtomakebetterdecisions.Forexample,adogwalkingrobotcouldndweatherreportsonlineandthenconsultitsownstoreddatatodeterminetheideallengthoawalkandtheoptimalroute:perhapsashortwalkiitshotorraining,oralongwalktoanearbyparkwhereotherdogwalkerstendtocongregateifitspleasantout.
ROBOTSLITTLEHELPER
Theintegrationorobotsintoeverydaylifewillalsorequiremorereliablecommunicationbetweenrobotsandbetweenrobotsandhumans.Despiteadvancesinwirelesstechnology,impedimentsstillhamperrobottorobotcommunication.Itremainsdiculttomodelorpredicthowwellrobotswillbeabletocommunicateinanygivenenvironment.Moreover,methodsocontrollingrobotsthatrelyoncurrentcommunicationstechnologiesarehinderedbynoiseextraneoussignalsanddatathatmakeithardtosendandreceivecommands.Robotsneedmorereliableapproachestocommunicationthatwouldguaranteethebandwidththeyneed,whentheyneedit.Onepromisingnewapproachtothisprobleminvolvesmeasuringthequalityocommunicationaroundarobotlocallyinsteadotryingtopredictitusingmodels.
Communicationbetweenrobotsandpeopleisalsocurrentlyquitelimited.Althoughaudiosensorsandspeechrecognitionsoftwareallowrobotstounderstandandrespondtobasicspokencommands(Movetothedoor),suchinteractionsarebothnarrowandshallowintermsoscopeandvocabulary.Moreextensivehumanrobotcommunicationwouldenablerobotstoaskhumansforhelp.Itturnsoutthatwhenarobotisperformingatask,evenatinyamountohumaninterventioncompletelychangesthewaytherobotdealswithaproblemandgreatlyempowersthemachinetodomore.MyresearchgroupatMITsComputerScienceandArticialIntelligenceLaboratoryrecentlydevelopedasystemthatallowedgroupsorobotstoassembleIKEAfurniture.Therobotsworkedtogetheraslongasthepartsneededfortheassemblywerewithinreach.Whenapart,suchasatableleg,wasoutoreach,arobotcouldrecognizetheproblemandaskhumanstohanditthepartusingEnglishlanguagesentences.Afterreceivingthepart,therobotswereabletoresumetheassemblytask.Arobotsabilitytounderstanderrorandenlisthumanhelprepresentsasteptowardmoresynergisticcollaborationsbetweenhumansandrobots.
NICKYLOH/COURTESYREUTERS
HumanoidcommunicationrobotKiroboshakeshandswithTomotakaTakahashi,CEOofRoboGarageCo,June26,2013.
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 7/9
DOMOARIGATO,MR.ROBOTO
Personalcomputers,wirelesstechnology,smartphones,andeasytodownloadappshavealreadydemocratizedaccesstoinformationandcomputationandtransformedthewaypeopleliveandwork.Intheyearstocome,robotswillextendthisdigitalrevolutionfurtherintothephysicalrealmanddeeperintoeverydaylife,withconsequencesthatwillbeequallyprofound.
You have read 2 of 2 of your free articles this month
Get full access and save 55%subscribe now!
SUBSCRIBENOW
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 8/9
Inarobotrichworld,peoplemaywakeupinthemorningandsendpersonalshoppingrobotstothesupermarkettobringbackfruitandmilkforbreakfast.Oncethere,therobotsmayencounterpeoplewhoaretheretodotheirownshoppingbutwhotraveledtothestoreinselfdrivingcarsandwhoareusingselfdrivingshoppingcartsthattakethemdirectlytotheitemstheywantandthenprovideinformationonthefreshness,provenance,andnutritionalvalueothegoodsandthatcanalsohelpvisuallyimpairedshoppersnavigatethestoresafely.Inaretailenvironmentshapedbypervasiverobotics,peoplewillsuperviseandsupportrobotswhileoeringcustomersadviceandservicewithahumantouch.Inturn,robotswillsupportpeoplebyautomatingsomephysicallydicultortediousjobs:stockingshelves,cleaningwindows,sweepingsidewalks,deliveringorderstocustomers.
Personalcomputers,wirelesstechnology,smartphones,andeasytodownloadappshavealreadydemocratizedaccesstoinformationandcomputationandtransformedthewaypeopleliveandwork.Intheyearstocome,robotswillextendthisdigitalrevolutionfurtherintothephysicalrealmanddeeperintoeverydaylife,withconsequencesthatwillbeequallyprofound.
COMMENTJUN 16, 2015
Browse Related Articles on Science & Technology
1922 2015
THE ROBOTS ARE COMINGDaniela Rus
Ashis ++++++++++++++++++++Dash SUBSCRIBE
-
18/06/2015 DanielaRus|RiseoftheRobots
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20150616/robotsarecoming 9/9
Published by the Council on Foreign Relations
THE MAGAZINE
REGIONS
TOPICS
FEATURES
Recent Shared ViewedThe Most:
Global Conict Tracker
The Time of the Kurds
The Sunni-Shia Divide
A Conversation With Nicola Sturgeon
SUBSCRIBE
2015 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use
Same as It Ever WasWhytheTechnooptimistsAreWrong
MartinWolf
Search 92 years of Foreign Affairs SEARCH
From thepublishers ofForeign Aairs