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Dane CountyClimate Adaptation Planning
David S. LieblUW-Cooperative Extension
April 18, 2013
WICCI Climate AnalysisChris Kucharik - UW Agronomy
Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research
Dane County Climate PlanningThe TeamResource and infrastructure managers, public health and safety
The Process1) Understand climate impacts (today)
2) Assess vulnerability3) Identify adaptation opportunities4) Plan for adaptation:
– Range of strategies– Implementation plan– Public review and input
Humans experience climate as weather…
…and weather can take a human toll!
What about climate concerns us?
High WaterStorms of June 1-15, 2008
38 River gauges broke records810 Square miles of land flooded161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage
2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated
$34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
DNR
Your most notable extreme weather event
- You were in it- You responded- You will always remember- You worry about
June 8, 1953Cleveland, OhioF-4 TornadoPath 118 milesWidth 100 yardsInjuries 379Dead 17
Scientific consensus on climate change
“There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities.”
— US National Research Council, 2010
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
- Understanding ways we can adapt to the consequences of climate change.
www.wicci.wisc.edu
Historic Temperature Change
Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-1.5°F since 1950
Daytime High Temperature Change
SpringWinter
Winter
Nighttime Low Temperature Change
Spring
Temperature Extremes
Sub-zero nightsmuch less frequent
Very hot dayslittle change
Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze
Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950
Annual Average Precipitation Change
Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑7” - ↓4” since 1950
Statistical downscaling of climate projections across the East and Central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
Objective: To statistically downscale global climate model simulations to scales relevant for decision makers (around 10 km resolution)
WICCI Climate Assessments and ProjectionsUW-Center for Climatic Research
DownscalingRegion
• More frequent hot days
• Significant increase in heat waves
• Warmer nighttime and winter temperatures
• Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation
• Significant increase in rain during winter
Impact on short term variability (weather)Not projected
Summary of Wisconsin’s projected climate
10 ⁰F
8 ⁰F
6 ⁰F
Co2 Emission Scenarios
Using: A1B as mid-range(not more likely)
Selecting Climate Data
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
+6 ⁰F
+8 ⁰F
Mid 21st
Late 21st
Planning Horizons
Budget 1-2 years
Staffing 3-5 years
Buildings 25-50 years
Roads, Sewers, etc. >50 years
How far do we need to look ahead?
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Comparing: Late 20th to mid-21st
T annual+6 ⁰F
Mid-21st Temperature (A1B)
T max+6 ⁰F
+20 Days >90⁰F
+500CDD
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Vulnerability to Heat
Since 1982, heat waves have caused more deaths (216) than all other natural disasters combined - NWS
Likelihood of the Warmest Day of the YearMadison, WI
1976, 2012 record
Projected(A1B)
Increase in Heat Wave Number and Duration1981-2000 vs. 2046-2065
More frequent and longer
Six 5-day events
One 9-day event
Latest freeze2 weeks earlier
Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)Seasonal shift
Suggests: More spring snow stormsMore icingMore groundwater recharge
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Spring+1”
Groundwater flooding from increased recharge
Madeline Gotkowitz
The community has built a diversion channel to carry water from future flooding.
This Spring Green subdivision has been razed, with FEMA reimbursement.
Spring+1”
Summer+6 ⁰F
Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)Seasonal shift
Suggests: More spring, less summer rainfallIncreased droughtIncreased irrigation demand
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)
Annual+2”
2” rainfall+4/10yr
Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Climatologist's “extreme rainfall” = 2” in 24 hours(frequency = 1.3/ year)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 year 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years
Historical
NARCCAP
Inch
Return Period
Storm Intensity1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070
Storm Intensity
-Vavrus and Behnke
Both are projected to increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1.0" 2.5" 3.0" 3.5" 4.0" 5.0"
Historical
NARCCAP
Projected Return Period1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070
Storm Intensity
Year
Rainfall Frequency
-Vavrus and Behnke
Record 24-hour RainfallsWorld-wide: 72″ in 24 hours La Reunion, Indian Ocean (1966)
Wisconsin :11.75″ in 24 hours Stoddard, Vernon County (August 18, 2007)
4.05” La Crosse (same storm)
NOAA 100-year(1%) rainfall = 7″
Record Rainfall (MSN)4.5″ 19964.1″ 20083.9″ 19953.7″ 19933.6″ 2004, 20093.5″ 2010
Adapting to Extreme Rainfall
ResiliencyToday’s extreme events are consistent with projected precipitation trends
If a system is prepared for current variability, it’s likely to be prepared for future trends
Liebl and Schuster11.75”
We can learn from the experience of communities around us
“Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities…..”
- WICCI Stormwater Working Group
Vulnerability assessment
Rainfall: • Floodplains and surface flooding• At-risk road-crossings• Stormwater BMPs• Hazardous materials storage• Emergency response capacity• Wells and septic systems• Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
-NOAA Milwaukee Regional Climate Center
Reedsburg, WISewage Treatment Plant
Extreme Storm Transposition Study
NOAA CSI-SARPNA12OAR4310098
Rainfall Rise Stage* Outflow
2008storm 10.7″ 2.3 ′ 852 ′ 632 cfs
Transposedstorm 13.6″ 2.9 ′ 853 ′ 752 cfs
100yrflood 852 ′
- Doug Brugger
*from 850.1
Impact downstreamunder analysis
“What would happen if the 2008 rainfall was centered over the Yahara Lakes?”
Lake Mendota
Long planning horizon - Climate change occurs over decades, what planning and management strategies are on the same time scale?
Predictive uncertainty - Are management strategies flexible enough to respond to the range of climate impacts and uncertainty ?
Sustainable alternatives – More of the same may not be the best long term solution?
Win-Win strategies both protect society and reduce carbon
Challenges of Climate Adaptation
Climate Ready Communities
Climate Awareness
Vulnerability Assessment :Extreme heatDroughtHeavy rainfallWarm wintersWindstorms
Adaptation Capacity: PlanningResiliency
Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI
Dane County Next StepsIdentifying climate vulnerabilities
How will projected changes in climate affect your work?
e.g. More de-icing - MSNProlonged heat waves – County HealthHigh water – Lakes and Watershed
Next steps:1) Identify climate vulnerabilities in the systems you manage2) Assess the feasibility of adaptation strategies3) Look for commonalities4) Prioritize5) Draft a plan of public review and input6) Implement adaptation strategies
Vulnerability WorksheetMSN
Changing Climate Conditions+A1:O17 Area of Responsibility or Activity Anticipated Impact Scope of Impact Time Frame of Change Consequence of Impact Vulnerability of Systems
Use the following (WICCI A1B) scenarios for mid-21st century
Name of department or other What exactly do you think will happen
How widely will it affect your operations
Immediate or deferred Why is the impact a problem
How will you recognize failure of the system
Temperature
Annual Average Temperature + 6⁰F
Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F
Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F
Twenty more Days over 90⁰F
Five hundred more cooling degree days
More frequent-longer heat waves
Precipitation
Annual Precipitation +2"
Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing
Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)
Increased rainfall in winter and spring Dane County Regional Airport Increasing amount of winter rainfall
Planes, runways, sidewalks, parking
Immediate Safety of passengers; ability to operate
Inability of existing de-icing systems to cope with
Increased groundwater recharge
Vulnerability WorksheetMSN (pg2)
Estimated Risk to System Adaptation Opportunity Adaptation Goals Feasibility of Options Required Authority Potential Internal Partners Potential External Partners Time Frame of Implementation
High - Medium - Low Anything that can be done in anticipation of the impact
Objectives / Milestones Cost, physically possible, socially acceptable
Who can make the decision to implement
Who in County government should be involved
Who else should be involved When should it begin (or when can it begin)
Medium Upgrade de-icing systems; improve icing forecasting
Maintain operations during icing events
Feasible with current technology
Director and FAA Lakes and Watershed City of Madison Begin analysis and planning now
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