Dane CountyClimate Adaptation Planning

David S. LieblUW-Cooperative Extension

April 18, 2013

WICCI Climate AnalysisChris Kucharik - UW Agronomy

Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research

Dane County Climate PlanningThe TeamResource and infrastructure managers, public health and safety

The Process1) Understand climate impacts (today)

2) Assess vulnerability3) Identify adaptation opportunities4) Plan for adaptation:

– Range of strategies– Implementation plan– Public review and input

Humans experience climate as weather…

…and weather can take a human toll!

What about climate concerns us?

High WaterStorms of June 1-15, 2008

38 River gauges broke records810 Square miles of land flooded161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage

2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated

$34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM

DNR

Your most notable extreme weather event

- You were in it- You responded- You will always remember- You worry about

June 8, 1953Cleveland, OhioF-4 TornadoPath 118 milesWidth 100 yardsInjuries 379Dead 17

Scientific consensus on climate change

“There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities.”

— US National Research Council, 2010

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

- Understanding ways we can adapt to the consequences of climate change.

www.wicci.wisc.edu

Historic Temperature Change

Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-1.5°F since 1950

Daytime High Temperature Change

SpringWinter

Winter

Nighttime Low Temperature Change

Spring

Temperature Extremes

Sub-zero nightsmuch less frequent

Very hot dayslittle change

Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze

Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950

Annual Average Precipitation Change

Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑7” - ↓4” since 1950

Statistical downscaling of climate projections across the East and Central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)

Objective: To statistically downscale global climate model simulations to scales relevant for decision makers (around 10 km resolution)

WICCI Climate Assessments and ProjectionsUW-Center for Climatic Research

DownscalingRegion

• More frequent hot days

• Significant increase in heat waves

• Warmer nighttime and winter temperatures

• Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation

• Significant increase in rain during winter

Impact on short term variability (weather)Not projected

Summary of Wisconsin’s projected climate

10 ⁰F

8 ⁰F

6 ⁰F

Co2 Emission Scenarios

Using: A1B as mid-range(not more likely)

Selecting Climate Data

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

+6 ⁰F

+8 ⁰F

Mid 21st

Late 21st

Planning Horizons

Budget 1-2 years

Staffing 3-5 years

Buildings 25-50 years

Roads, Sewers, etc. >50 years

How far do we need to look ahead?

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

Comparing: Late 20th to mid-21st

T annual+6 ⁰F

Mid-21st Temperature (A1B)

T max+6 ⁰F

+20 Days >90⁰F

+500CDD

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

Vulnerability to Heat

Since 1982, heat waves have caused more deaths (216) than all other natural disasters combined - NWS

Likelihood of the Warmest Day of the YearMadison, WI

1976, 2012 record

Projected(A1B)

Increase in Heat Wave Number and Duration1981-2000 vs. 2046-2065

More frequent and longer

Six 5-day events

One 9-day event

Latest freeze2 weeks earlier

Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)Seasonal shift

Suggests: More spring snow stormsMore icingMore groundwater recharge

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

Spring+1”

Groundwater flooding from increased recharge

Madeline Gotkowitz

The community has built a diversion channel to carry water from future flooding.

This Spring Green subdivision has been razed, with FEMA reimbursement.

Spring+1”

Summer+6 ⁰F

Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)Seasonal shift

Suggests: More spring, less summer rainfallIncreased droughtIncreased irrigation demand

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

Mid-21st Precipitation (A1B)

Annual+2”

2” rainfall+4/10yr

Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/

Climatologist's “extreme rainfall” = 2” in 24 hours(frequency = 1.3/ year)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 year 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years

Historical

NARCCAP

Inch

Return Period

Storm Intensity1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070

Storm Intensity

-Vavrus and Behnke

Both are projected to increase

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1.0" 2.5" 3.0" 3.5" 4.0" 5.0"

Historical

NARCCAP

Projected Return Period1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070

Storm Intensity

Year

Rainfall Frequency

-Vavrus and Behnke

Record 24-hour RainfallsWorld-wide: 72″ in 24 hours La Reunion, Indian Ocean (1966)

Wisconsin :11.75″ in 24 hours Stoddard, Vernon County (August 18, 2007)

4.05” La Crosse (same storm)

NOAA 100-year(1%) rainfall = 7″

Record Rainfall (MSN)4.5″ 19964.1″ 20083.9″ 19953.7″ 19933.6″ 2004, 20093.5″ 2010

Adapting to Extreme Rainfall

ResiliencyToday’s extreme events are consistent with projected precipitation trends

If a system is prepared for current variability, it’s likely to be prepared for future trends

Liebl and Schuster11.75”

We can learn from the experience of communities around us

“Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities…..”

- WICCI Stormwater Working Group

Vulnerability assessment

Rainfall: • Floodplains and surface flooding• At-risk road-crossings• Stormwater BMPs• Hazardous materials storage• Emergency response capacity• Wells and septic systems• Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration

-NOAA Milwaukee Regional Climate Center

Reedsburg, WISewage Treatment Plant

Extreme Storm Transposition Study

NOAA CSI-SARPNA12OAR4310098

Rainfall Rise Stage* Outflow

2008storm 10.7″ 2.3 ′ 852 ′ 632 cfs

Transposedstorm 13.6″ 2.9 ′ 853 ′ 752 cfs

100yrflood 852 ′

- Doug Brugger

*from 850.1

Impact downstreamunder analysis

“What would happen if the 2008 rainfall was centered over the Yahara Lakes?”

Lake Mendota

Long planning horizon - Climate change occurs over decades, what planning and management strategies are on the same time scale?

Predictive uncertainty - Are management strategies flexible enough to respond to the range of climate impacts and uncertainty ?

Sustainable alternatives – More of the same may not be the best long term solution?

Win-Win strategies both protect society and reduce carbon

Challenges of Climate Adaptation

Climate Ready Communities

Climate Awareness

Vulnerability Assessment :Extreme heatDroughtHeavy rainfallWarm wintersWindstorms

Adaptation Capacity: PlanningResiliency

Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI

Dane County Next StepsIdentifying climate vulnerabilities

How will projected changes in climate affect your work?

e.g. More de-icing - MSNProlonged heat waves – County HealthHigh water – Lakes and Watershed

Next steps:1) Identify climate vulnerabilities in the systems you manage2) Assess the feasibility of adaptation strategies3) Look for commonalities4) Prioritize5) Draft a plan of public review and input6) Implement adaptation strategies

Vulnerability WorksheetMSN

Changing Climate Conditions+A1:O17 Area of Responsibility or Activity Anticipated Impact Scope of Impact Time Frame of Change Consequence of Impact Vulnerability of Systems

Use the following (WICCI A1B) scenarios for mid-21st century

Name of department or other What exactly do you think will happen

How widely will it affect your operations

Immediate or deferred Why is the impact a problem

How will you recognize failure of the system

Temperature

Annual Average Temperature + 6⁰F

Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F

Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F

Twenty more Days over 90⁰F

Five hundred more cooling degree days

More frequent-longer heat waves

Precipitation

Annual Precipitation +2"

Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing

Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)

Increased rainfall in winter and spring Dane County Regional Airport Increasing amount of winter rainfall

Planes, runways, sidewalks, parking

Immediate Safety of passengers; ability to operate

Inability of existing de-icing systems to cope with

Increased groundwater recharge

Vulnerability WorksheetMSN (pg2)

Estimated Risk to System Adaptation Opportunity Adaptation Goals Feasibility of Options Required Authority Potential Internal Partners Potential External Partners Time Frame of Implementation

High - Medium - Low Anything that can be done in anticipation of the impact

Objectives / Milestones Cost, physically possible, socially acceptable

Who can make the decision to implement

Who in County government should be involved

Who else should be involved When should it begin (or when can it begin)

Medium Upgrade de-icing systems; improve icing forecasting

Maintain operations during icing events

Feasible with current technology

Director and FAA Lakes and Watershed City of Madison Begin analysis and planning now