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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
CWIEME Chicago 2016Electric Motor Market Update
Presented by:
Preston Reine, Senior Analyst & Manager
IHS Markit Industrial Automation
1
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
• Economic update
• Motor market statistics
• Key trends and challenges for suppliers
• Conclusion
2
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Industrial Automation research areas
CAPTIAL EQUIPMENT & MACHINERY
3D PrintingGeneratorsMachineryMotor Driven EquipmentSwitchgearTurbines
DrivesMechanical Power TransmissionMotors
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMSDISCRETE & PROCESS
AUTOMATION
ControllersIndustrial CommunicationsProcess InstrumentationVisualizationSmart Manufacturing
© 2016 IHS 4
Global economic outlook
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.5
The key top-level numbers for 2015…..
Total industrial capital expenditure spend
-5.3%
Growth
$199.3 billion spend on automation products
Machinery production (MP)
Automation products significant part of MP
Automation direct to end-users
Building, land, services and
other
3%of spend
63%of spend
34%of spend
$3.2Trillion
A huge amount of money goes into industrial capital expenditure projects each year.
Here we show how that spend is allocated, and how much of it is directed towards Automation products.
© 2016 IHS
Industrial capital expenditures by major region
6
Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure – Q3 2016/ Aug 2016
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
20
15
$738 billion $635 billion
20
20
$879 billion $793 billion $2,134 billion
$1,941 billion
22.3%58.6%
% of 2015 global industrial capital expenditure
19.2%
© 2016 IHS
Relative size of automation expenditures by industry within each region
7
Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure – Q3 2016/ Aug 2016
Region
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
Automotive
Cement and glass
Chemicals
Food and beverage
Metal processing
Oil and gas
Pharmaceuticals
Power
Pulp and paper
Refining and petrochemicals
Water and wastewater
Ind
us
try
© 2016 IHS
Machinery production by country - 2015
8
World machinery
market $1.3tn
$257bn $113bn $458bn $123bn $440.7bn
Rest of the world
© 2016 IHS 9
Key industry sector weight and performance in 2016
3.7%
4.9%
3.6%
6.0%
3.4%
4.4%
6.2%
6.8%
8.4%
7.6%
45%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Percentage of 2015 Industrial automation equipment 2015 growth 2016 - growth - Q2 update
Industrial automation equipment market by industry
© 2016 IHS
Pro
po
rtio
no
f to
tal in
du
str
ial
au
tom
ati
on
eq
uip
men
t m
ark
et
(%)
Secto
r gro
wth
© 2016 IHS 10
Breakdown of automation capital expenditures by industry and region - 2015
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Au
tom
otiv
e
Cem
ent and g
lass
Chem
icals
Fo
od a
nd b
eve
rage
Me
tal p
roce
ssin
g
Oil
and g
as
Ph
arm
ace
utic
als
Po
wer
Pu
lp a
nd p
aper
Refin
ing a
nd p
etr
och
em
icals
Wate
r an
d w
ast
ew
ate
r
EMEA Asia AmericasSource: IHS © 2016 IHS
Automation capital expenditures by industry
In m
illio
ns
© 2016 IHS 11
Industrial automation equipment market leaders
© 2016 IHS 12
Short term factors affecting the world economy
Systematic factors
• Withdrawal of policy stimulus
• Over capacity after investment booms
• Sluggish export markets
• Increased risk aversion
Structural factors
• Growing labor force and wages
• Continuance of globalization
• Falling commodity prices
• Lack of market reforms
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Impact of Brexit not a long-term concern
13
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Americas Sep '16 EMEA Sep '16 APAC Sep '16
Americas June '16 EMEA June '16 APAC June '16
GDP Forecast Post Brexit
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Perc
en
t G
row
th(%
)
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Machinery production lag in China a slight concern
14
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Real GDP Industrial production Machinery production
China economic figures
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Perc
en
t G
row
th(%
)
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
USGermanyChinaJapan
Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $
Machinery production growth profiles
15-50%
-25%
0%
25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Europe (€)Europe ($)
Percentage growth rates of European machinery production. Comparison of $ against €
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AmericasEuropeAsia Pacific
Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $
Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates
% Growth of machinery production measured in US $
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CAGR
13 - 20
US 9.4% 0.5% -1.8% 1.4% -0.7% 1.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.6%
Germany -4.7% 4.1% 1.6% -19.2% -0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% -1.7%
China 5.7% 7.5% 6.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.0%
Japan 1.4% -13.1% 1.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4%
Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016
Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates
% Growth of machinery production measured in US $
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CAGR
13 - 20
Americas 1.4% -2.4% -0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 1.2%
Europe 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9%Asia
Pacific 11.0% -5.1% 5.3% 0.5% -1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 6.4% 1.4%
Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016
Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates
% Growth of machinery production measured $ and €
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CAGR
13 - 20
Europe (€) -1.8% 1.9% -2.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.4%
Europe ($) 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9%
Source: IHS; Industry Publications © IHS 2016
© 2016 IHS 16
Industrial motor market insights
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Overview of industrial motor market (Low-voltage AC & DC, integral horsepower)
$10.7B
Siemens
WEG
ABB
Asia0.2%
EMEA-1.0%
Americas-0.1%
Top-3 Leading Suppliers Americas
27%
EMEA30%
Asia43%
17
2016 forecast revenue
World revenue by region (%)
Revenue CAGR (2015-2020)
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
WORLD (major players)• ABB (inc. Baldor)
• Siemens
• WEG
• Regal Beloit
• TECO E&M/TECO-Westinghouse
• Leroy Somer
• Toshiba
• Shandong Huali
• Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal
• Hyosung Corporation
• NIDEC (US Motors)
Next-tier Competitors
• Toshiba
• Shandong Huali
• Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal
• Hyosung Corporation
• NIDEC (US Emerson)
• LEZ Ruselprom
• Gamak
• GE Industrial
• Tech Full Simo
• Cantoni Motor
• Fuji Electric
• Hengshui (OX)
• Crompton Greaves
• Tatung Corporation
• ATB Group (Wolong)
• VEM Group
• Luan JiangHuai
• Anhui Wannan
Low Voltage Motor Suppliers in the World
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global MEPS Timeline
Source: IHS; IE4 Low-Voltage Motors - 2015 © 2015 IHS
1997 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011
IE2: US & Canada
IE1: China
IE2: Australia
IE2: Mexico
IE2: S. Korea, Φ1
IE2: Brazil
IE2: S. Korea, Φ2
IE3/NEMA Premium : US
IE2: European Union, Φ1
2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2020
IE2: Turkey
IE3/NEMA Premium : Canada
IE2/GB3: China
European Union, Φ27.5kW - 375kWIE2+VFD or IE3
*Lot #30 Proposal*European Union0.75kW - 375kW
Exclusively IE3
European Union, Φ30.75kW - 7.5kWIE2+VFD or IE3
World - Legislative Timeline: 1997-2020
Japan 'Top Runner' IE3 or better
IE3/GB2: China
US: earliest for IE2 US: Earliest for IE3/NEMA
Europe
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Rapid efficiency class transitions across all regions
20
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IE1 - Standard Efficiency IE2 - High Efficiency IE3 - Premium EfficiencySource: IHS © 2015 IHS
Un
its (
k)
Brazil starts IE2
EU starts IE2 shift
China starts IE2
shift
US starts IE3/NEMA
Premium shift
Canada starts IE3/NEMA
Premium shift
EU (Phase 2) and Japan
start IE3 shift
EU (Phase 3) and China
start IE3 shift
2016 and beyond are estimated
The world market for low-voltage motors - unit shipments from 2010 to 2020
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.21
Slow unit growth doesn’t alter efficiency transition
EFFICIENCY CLASS TRANSITIONS (UNITS)
Average Annual Unit Growth ≈ 0.5%
Global Low Voltage Motors - Efficiency Class Transition: 2015 to 2020
2020 Market Size (Units)
41.7 Million
2015 Market Size (Units)
40.1 Million
IE140%
IE234%
IE317%
IE4<1%
DC<1%
Others8%
IE127%
IE241%
IE323%
IE42%
DC<1%
Others7%
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Major motor applications
22
-20.0%
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2015 Revenues Growth 2016 Growth 2017Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Reven
ues (
$M
)
Gro
wth
(%
)
The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2019
2014
WINDSHIELD WIPER MOTOR POWER WINDOWS
POWER DOOR/TAILGATE MOTOR
ADAPTIVE HEADLIGHTSMOTORS
ENGINE COOLING SYSTEM
POWER ROOF MOTOR
E-SUSPENSION MOTORS
POWER SEATING MOTORS
POWER STEERING MOTORS
AIRFLOW SYSTEM
DOOR MIRRORS MOTORS
BRAKING MOTORS
ELECTRIC THROTTLE MOTOR
# Motors: 1.8ASP: $6
# Motors: 1.9ASP: $5.6
# Motors: 5.8ASP: $9.6
# Motors: 6.1ASP: $8.9
# Motors: 1ASP: $9.8
# Motors: 1ASP: $13.4
# Motors: 2.4ASP: $11.2
# Motors: 2.6ASP: $11.1
# Motors: 2.7ASP: $4.1
# Motors: 2.9ASP: $3.7
# Motors: 1.8ASP: $8.9
# Motors: 1.8ASP: $8.8
# Motors: 4ASP: $8.80
# Motors: 4ASP: $8.50
# Motors:13.9ASP: $7.9
# Motors:14.8ASP: $7.2
# Motors: 3.2ASP: $3.4
# Motors: 3.3ASP: $3.0
# Motors: 1ASP: $38.4
# Motors: 1ASP: $30.1
# Motors: 3ASP: $12.9
# Motors: 3ASP: $12.5
# Motors: 1ASP: $7.6
# Motors: 1ASP: $7.4
# Motors: 4.0ASP: $7.1
# Motors: 4.0ASP: $6.4
COST MANAGEMENT IN THE CARM O T O R – E L E C T R I C
© 2016 IHS 24
Technology change in manufacturing and machinery
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Internet of Things Evolution
Internet of Everything (IoE): represents the open access to data from one ormore monitoring and control systems by third-party applications to provide unique,additional value to stakeholders.
25
Connect
Devices
Collect Data
Access Data
Complex
Analytics
Unique Value
• Connectivity• Intelligence
• Sensors• Storage
• Cloud• Standards• Open APIs
• “Big Data” • Realize the true potential of a connected society….
Where we are today.
Next stage – security is key challenge!
Ideal goal – many years away…
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Sensors used for condition monitoring
26
ConditionMonitoring
Vibration sensors
Oil analysisThermography
Other machine quality parameters: temperature, pressure, speed etc
„Of all the parameters that can be measured non-intrusively in industry today, the one containing the most information is the vibration signature“, Art Crawford
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Changes in technology smart manufacturing / Industry 4.0
27
Mass Customization
Predictive Maintenance
Digitization
Demand Driven Manufacturing
Remote Diagnostics
Energy Efficiency
Mobility
Industry 4.0
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
What do machine users want?
28
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Improveproduct quality
Improveflexibility (e.g.for faster new
productintroduction, orpreparing forsmaller batch
sizes)
Improvingenergy
efficiency
Improvingsafety
Improvingcollaboration
betweendifferent teams
Efficientlymanaginginventory
Compliancewith
environmentalregulation
Improvingcybersecurity
Other than increasing production, what do you think is the main factor driving automation investment within your company?
Source: IHS
Co
un
t
Sample size = 915 Sample frame = all respondents
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Steps from reactive to predictive maintenance
29
Prescriptive maintenance
•Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, system operation can be adjusted to allow for prolonged product lifetime and alignment with convenient repair schedules
Predictive maintenance
•Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, allowing for pro-active response minimizing downtime and improving efficiency of maintenance teams
Condition monitoring
•Definition of suitable measures depending on the current condition of the system – based on diagnostic data and remote monitoring
Preventative maintenance
•Repair and maintenance work is scheduled based on pre-defined intervals
Reactive maintenance
•Response to failure or impaired performance of product
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Conclusion
Key Takeaways:
• Worldwide commitment for systems efficiency is best hope for growth in the motor market amid such difficult economic times
• Motor suppliers enduring hard times; but strong opportunities exist
Notable actions:
• With a shift towards efficiency and smart manufacturing, all industrial players need to be thinking about how to simplify things for their customers by providing a full holistic solution
• This means that motor suppliers are looking to offer more than just a motor, but services and extra components, as well, in order to fit in with the rapidly evolving “Industry 4.0”
30
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Thank you! Any questions?
Preston Reine
Senior Analyst and Group Manager,
Manufacturing Technology
+1 512 582 2059
Preston.reine@ihsmarkit.com
31
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