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Current State of the Science in Integrated
Assessment
Key Bridge MarriottArlington, VA
Jae Edmonds November 13, 2008
Science Challenges and Future Directions for Integrated Assessment Research
2
OVERVIEW
What is Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM)?
How is the IAM community interacting with the Climate Modeling (CM) and Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV)?
What might the future hold for IAMs?
3
What is integrated assessment modeling?
4
Integrated assessment modeling describes the interactions between human and natural earth systems
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
IAMs conduct human systems research, historically focused on the energy-emissions interface.
IAMs integrate human and natural Earth systems to provide insights that are unavailable through traditional disciplinary research.
5
We are not alone
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
6
USA: MIT Integrated Global System ModelIntegrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
7
USA: MiniCAM and MERGE
Aggregated land-use and land-cover to 14-region scale
GHG Emissions
Carbon Dioxide Sulfur DioxideMethaneNitrous OxideOthers….
Energy Prices
MAGIC
SCENGEN
Climate Change Patterns
Temp Change SLR
Energy Supply
Primary Production CoalOilGasBiomassNuclear
SecondaryFuelsSolids, LiquidsGasesElectricityHydrogen
Primary Production CoalOilGasBiomassNuclear
SecondaryFuelsSolids, LiquidsGasesElectricityHydrogen
Ag Land-Use
Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price
Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood
Ag Land-Use
Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price
Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood
Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price
Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood
Bio
mass
P
rice
Bio
mass
P
rod
uct
ion
Energy Demand
Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)
Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)
Energy Demand
Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)
Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)
Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)
Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)
Emissions
MiniCAM
Geospacially explicit land use data
Geospacially energy supply data
14-region MiniCAM aggregations
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
8
EU: The IMAGE model
http://www.mnp.nl/image
Socio-economic system: 24 / 26 world regions
Environmental system: 0.5 x 0.5 degree
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
9
Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007
EU: The IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework
GHG EmissionsIndustry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation
Deforestation & Afforestation(modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
10
Japan: The Asia Integrated Model (AIM)
2000
2050
2100
structure of AIM/CGE
production factormarket
capital
laborland
Final demand sector
resource
Production sectors
produced commoditymarket
food
serviceenergy
...
tradeJapan
China...
Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity
...
Annual parameter change
GHGsemissions
GHGsemissions
climatechange
feedbackeg. land productivity change due to climate changescenarios: population, GDP, ...
AIM land-use (Cropland) downscaling
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
11
BERAC Program Review
The DOE/SC Integrated Assessment Research Program has been highly successful
“It is hard to understate the influence of IARP on current scientific and policy thinking.”“The IARP funded work has been widely cited in these assessments, and participation by IARP researchers as IPCC authors has improved the quality of the assessments and their scientific rigor.”
“A recent trend, however, is that national government financial support for these non-U.S. models has grown to the point that it is now, even taken on a country by country basis, considerably larger than the entire IARP budget.”“…it is a troubling possibility that non-U.S. models may well dominate future discussions of climate change mitigation and adaptation, not to mention negotiations for the next round of international policy, should they surpass the policy and scientific capacity of the IARP models.”
http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/berac/IARP_Report_Final.pdf
12
IAMs Provide Anthropogenic Drivers of Natural Systems
13
Integrated assessment modeling has four roles in climate change research
1. IAMs historical role has been to provide data and models, grounded in human systems research, relevant to understanding the scale and timing of the drivers of climate change over decades to century time scales. (A major interface with the climate modeling community CMC.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
GTC
/Yea
r
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
14
Work Plan for an Anticipated Major Assessments in the 2013-14 Time Frame
FOUR PHASES
The Preparatory Phase and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)Parallel Phase: Prepare climate and socio-economic scenarios in parallel
Product 5: Integration of CMC Ensembles
with New IAM Scenarios AvailableProduct 3: New IAM
Scenarios
Product 2: RCP-based CMC ensembles &
pattern scaling
Product 4: Story Lines
Product 1: RCPs
delivered to CMC
12 monthsFall 2007
24 months 18 months 12 monthFall 2008
Fall 2010
Spring 2012
Spring 2013
Parallel Phase Integration Phase
Preparatory
Phase
Publication Lag
Integration Phase:“Pair up” climate scenarios with new socio-economic scenarios; and scaling for IAV research; IAV-IAM “teaming to more fully integrate representation of impacts in IAMs and IAV research.
Publication Phase
AR
5 WG
I R
eport
AR
5 WG
II & III
Reports
2013
2014
15
The Noordwijkerhout Report
Available either at the IPCC web sitewww.ipcc.ch (then click on “New Scenarios”)http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session28/doc8.pdf
Or, at the AIMES web sitehttp://www.aimes.ucar.edu/DOCUMENTS/IPCC_Final _Draft_Meeting_Report_3May08.pdf
16
Scenarios by Whom?
For the first time scenarios are being organized by the modeling community and NOT the IPCC.
The IAM community has organized itself via the IAMC.
The CM community has organized it self via the WCRP/IGBP.
17
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)From the Existing Literature, Already Underway
RCPsSelection,
Extension to 2300, Downscaling
CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs
12 monthsFall 2007
18 months 12 monthFall 2008
Fall 2010
Spring 2012
Spring 2013
Integration Phase
Preparatory
Phase
Publication Lag
8.5 W/m2
6 W/m2
4.5 W/m2
<3 W/m2
RCP8.5>8.5 W/m2 in 2100, Rising
RCP6~6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target
RCP4.5~4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target
RCP3-PD<3 W/m2 in 2100peak & decline stabilization
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Rad
iativ
e Fo
rcin
g (W
/m2)
MiniCAM 4.5
IMAGE 2.6
AIM 6.0
MES-A2R 8.5
IMAGE 2.9
18
The “Handshake” Document
There is a “Handshake”document.Work plan for data exchange between the Integrated Assessment and Climate Modeling community in support of Preparatory Phase of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (Representative Community Pathways).http://www.aimes.ucar.edu/activities/AR5_Coordination/RCP%20handshake_jun07.doc
19
IAM
IAV
CMC
IAV research based on new CM and IAM scenarios
Continued Development and Application of IAM Scenarios
IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES IAM scenarios
Integration of CMC Ensembles with
IAM NEW Scenarios
RCPsSelection,
Extension to 2300, Downscaling
Story Lines
CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs
Development of New IAM Scenarios ReferenceReference
Stabilization
StabilizationTechnolog
y
Technology
PolicyPolicy
RegionalRegional
Reference Sta
bilizatio
n Technology Poli
cy
Regional
Reference Sta
bi lizatio
n Technology Poli
cy
Regional
Reference Sta
bi lization Tec
hnology Poli
cy
Regional
ReferenceReference
Stabilization
StabilizationTechnolog
y
Technology
PolicyPolicy
RegionalRegional
Reference Sta
bilization Tec
hnology Poli
cy
Regional
Reference Sta
bilization Tec
hnology Poli
cy
Regional
Reference Sta
bi lization Tec
hnology Poli
cy
Regional
Reference Sta
bi lization Tec
hnology Poli
cy
Regional
12 monthsFall 2007
24 months 18 months 12 monthFall 2008
Fall 2010
Spring 2012
Spring 2013
Parallel Phase Integration Phase Publication Lag
Beyond 2008: IAMs, CMs, and IAV
20
IAMs Represent Complex Systems and Reveal Emergent
Properties
Establishing Risk Analysis
Webster et al., Climatic Change, 2003
22
Net Land Use Change Emissions
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
TgC/
yr
550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference550 FFICT500 FFICT450 FFICT
Land Use Change EmissionsCumulative Emissions from Land-use Change
CO2 LimitTax All Carbon
Tax FF&I Only
Reference550 ppm -35 131500 ppm -36 177450 ppm -37 221
Cumulative Land Use Change Emissions
(PgC)
11
IGSM TEM has calculated net CH4 emissions and consumption in the Pan-Arctic region during the 1990s. Positive values indicate the net CH4 release to the
atmosphere, and negative values indicate the CH4 uptake from the atmosphere.
IN RESPONSETO CLIMATECHANGE,NET ANNUALEMISSIONS IN PAN-ARCTICINCREASEDBY ABOUT 8 Tg
CH4OVER 20th CENTURY TO51 Tg
IN 2000
Ref: Zhuang
et al,Global Biogeochem.Cycles, 2004
24
Corn Price When Carbon Is Valued But No Bioenergy Is Produced
Significant crop price escalation occurs if carbon is valued, even in the absence of purpose grown bioenergy production.
Prior to 2040 the influence of bioenergy is negligible.Prior to 2040 crop price escalation, relative to the reference scenario, is predominantly driven by the value of carbon. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ind
ex
20
00
=1
.0
FirstBest_CCS_500_No BioFirstBest_CCS_500Reference500 NoLUCO2 Price
Corn Price
Integrated Assessment Model
Human Systems
Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy
Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
Transport
Population Other
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
25
IAMs Are Decision Support Tools
26
CCSP SAP 2.1a: Reference scenario energy systems
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
MERGE
IGSM
MiniCAM
27
MERGE: The value of energy technology
30
25
20
15
10
5
2000
$US
Trill
ions
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
% G
DP Loss from
Reference
4.7 Target 3.4 Target
3B1B
3B
1B
Pessimistic
Optimistic
3B
1B3B
1B
Pessimistic
Optimistic
At 5% through 2200
28
Rest of World
Fossil w/ CCS
143
Rest of World
Nuclear
75
Rest of World
Industry
61
Keep Eye on Potential Influence of Major EmittersU
.S. C
umul
ativ
e In
vest
men
t (5
Year
Bud
get P
lan)
29
What does the future hold for Integrated Assessment Modeling?
30
Future Challenges for IAMs
Increased geographic specificity—for both land use and emissions of short-lived species.
Shorter time steps.
Longer time horizons—2300.
Closer interface with the CMs and the IAV community.
31
Two Parallel Development Directions
IAM in future ESMs.
ESMs are incorporating ever more Earth system processes.
Overlap with IAMs which produce land use and land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived species.
Obvious benefit to ESMs to incorporating the human and terrestrial systems components of IAMs.
This will require close collaboration because just as great mischief is possible when social scientists try to run ESMs, similarly great mischief is possible when natural scientists try to run the human system components of IAMs.
32
Regional Climate Models
Regional IAMs
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability Models
IAV
GlobalIAMs
ESMs
•Energy Infrastructure•Energy Demand•Water Management•Managed Land Agriculture•Economy•Health•Coastal Systems•Transportation•Manufacturing•Timber•Fisheries•Unmanaged Ecosystems•Urban air quality•Biodiversity••
Collaborations on consistent IAV component models at multiple scales
Thinking About Potential Future Directions for Integrated Assessment Modeling
33
Energy- economy
Early 1990s
Energy- economy
Late 1990s
Energy- economy
Present DayIn the Decade
Ahead
Ocean carbon cycle
Ocean carbon cycle
Ocean carbon cycle
Early 1980s
Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem.
Terr. carbon cycle
Climate model Climate model Climate model
Ag-land-use
Sulfur aerosol Sulfur aerosol
Non-sulfur aerosol
Energy technology
Energy technology
Energy- economy
A major feature of future work will be an increased emphasis on climate impacts on and adaptation by energy and other human and natural systems.
Biodiversity
Timber
Manufacturing
Transport
Health
Energy Infrastructure
Energy Demand
Water Management
Energy- economy
Ocean carbon cycle
Atmos. Chem.
Terr. carbon cycle
Ag-land-use
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Climate model
Sulfur aerosol
Non-sulfur aerosol
Hydrology
Energy technology
Fisheries
Fully closed systems
Energy impacts
Urban air quality
Ocean acidification
Coastal zones
Sea level and Ice
34
Energy- economy
Early 1990s
Energy- economy
Late 1990s
Energy- economy
Present DayIn the Decade
Ahead
Ocean carbon cycle
Ocean carbon cycle
Ocean carbon cycle
Early 1980s
Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem.
Terr. carbon cycle
Climate model Climate model Climate model
Ag-land-use
Sulfur aerosol Sulfur aerosol
Non-sulfur aerosol
Energy technology
Energy technology
Energy- economy
…while integrating with a deeper understanding of energy, technology, and economy including finer spatial resolution, longer time horizons, and closer coupling to ESMs.
Biodiversity
Timber
Manufacturing
Transport
Health
Energy Infrastructure
Energy Demand
Water Management
Energy- economy
Ocean carbon cycle
Atmos. Chem.
Terr. carbon cycle
Ag-land-use
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Climate model
Sulfur aerosol
Non-sulfur aerosol
Hydrology
Energy technology
Fisheries
Fully closed systems
Energy impacts
Urban air quality
Ocean acidification
Coastal zones
Sea level and Ice
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