critical thinking about risk

CRITICAL THINKING CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISKABOUT RISK

• Keep an open mindKeep an open mind• Give yourself timeGive yourself time• Get more information Get more information • Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation biasNeutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias• Fight cultural cognitionFight cultural cognition• Be a smarter news consumerBe a smarter news consumer• Think about trade-offsThink about trade-offs

HAZARDHAZARD

A RISK?A RISK? A RISK?A RISK?

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

(non-poisonous)(non-poisonous)

A RISK?A RISK?(non-poisonous)(non-poisonous)

A RISK?A RISK?

HAZARD AND EXPOSUREHAZARD AND EXPOSURE

DEFINITELY A RISK!!!!DEFINITELY A RISK!!!!

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD

• IS IT A HAZARDIS IT A HAZARD? (And at what dose?)? (And at what dose?)

PesticidesPesticides

Nanotechnology Nanotechnology

Pharmaceuticals in drinking waterPharmaceuticals in drinking water

PCBs in window caulk of buildings built orPCBs in window caulk of buildings built or

renovated 1950 – 1978renovated 1950 – 1978

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD

• WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCESWHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES??

-- DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD. DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD.

- WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer)- WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer)

- DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal- DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal

skin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatalskin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatal

(melanoma)(melanoma)

- FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term – sunburn), or - FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term – sunburn), or Chronic (longer lasting – lifelong risk of skin cancer.)Chronic (longer lasting – lifelong risk of skin cancer.)

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD

• HOW HAZARDOUSHOW HAZARDOUS??

H1N1H1N1 Mercury Mercury (Philippe Grandjean et al., “Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children (Philippe Grandjean et al., “Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children

with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury,” with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury,” Neurotoxicology and TeratologyNeurotoxicology and Teratology

19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417–428) 19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417–428)

Nuclear radiation Nuclear radiation (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII,(Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII,

Phase 2,” National Research Council of the National Academies of Science,Phase 2,” National Research Council of the National Academies of Science,

www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=030909156X) www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=030909156X)

Solar radiationSolar radiation

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD

• HAZARDOUS TO WHOMHAZARDOUS TO WHOM? (? (SUBGROUPSSUBGROUPS!)!)

CRIMECRIME

MERCURYMERCURY

DRIVINGDRIVING

KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, LOCATION. LOCATION.

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• DOSEDOSE

• BY WHAT ROUTEBY WHAT ROUTE??

INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMALINHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL

• OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIMEOVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME??

SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?

• AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE?

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• DOSEDOSE

• BY WHAT ROUTEBY WHAT ROUTE??

INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMALINHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL

• OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIMEOVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME??

SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?

• AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE?

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL

• TRADE OFFSTRADE OFFS

Energy Choices, Air Bags, PharmaceuticalsEnergy Choices, Air Bags, Pharmaceuticals

Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v. Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v.

negative effects of mercury from fish for negative effects of mercury from fish for developing fetal health) developing fetal health) Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, “Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's “Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's

Development,” Development,” LancetLancet 369, no. 369, no. 9561 (2007), pp. 537–538.9561 (2007), pp. 537–538.

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL

• VARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOODVARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOOD

Risk of dying in a plane crash Risk of dying in a plane crash

Per mile? Per flight? Per average American?Per mile? Per flight? Per average American?

Per average flier? Per frequent flier?Per average flier? Per frequent flier?

Averages over what period? Averages over what period?

(10 yr. avg. includes 9/11)(10 yr. avg. includes 9/11)

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL

Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!

PROBABILITIESPROBABILITIES

GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC?GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC?

• Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America. (America. (EPA)EPA)

• It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year.It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year.• 85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL

Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!

PROBABILITIESPROBABILITIES

ANNUAL OR LIFETIME?ANNUAL OR LIFETIME? The average American’s chance of getting The average American’s chance of getting

cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225. cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225.

The average American woman’s lifetime risk of The average American woman’s lifetime risk of getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, it’s 1 in 2.getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, it’s 1 in 2.

KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL

Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!

ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE?ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE?

A risk that is one in a million for the average A risk that is one in a million for the average person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute

deathsdeaths

ABSOLUTEABSOLUTE RELATIVERELATIVE How many? How Many COMPAREDHow many? How Many COMPARED

to something else to something else

RISK NUMBERSRELATIVE VS. ABSOLUTE

Relative annual risk of dying on the job rose 65%. (Subhead, lead)

Absolute annual risk of dying on the job went from 15 in a million to 25 in a million. (not mentioned anywhere in the story)