critical thinking about risk
DESCRIPTION
CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK. Keep an open mind Give yourself time Get more information Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias Fight cultural cognition Be a smarter news consumer Think about trade-offs. HAZARD. A RISK?. A RISK?. EXPOSURE. (non-poisonous) A RISK?. (non-poisonous) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CRITICAL THINKING CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISKABOUT RISK
• Keep an open mindKeep an open mind• Give yourself timeGive yourself time• Get more information Get more information • Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation biasNeutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias• Fight cultural cognitionFight cultural cognition• Be a smarter news consumerBe a smarter news consumer• Think about trade-offsThink about trade-offs
HAZARDHAZARD
A RISK?A RISK? A RISK?A RISK?
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
(non-poisonous)(non-poisonous)
A RISK?A RISK?(non-poisonous)(non-poisonous)
A RISK?A RISK?
HAZARD AND EXPOSUREHAZARD AND EXPOSURE
DEFINITELY A RISK!!!!DEFINITELY A RISK!!!!
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD
• IS IT A HAZARDIS IT A HAZARD? (And at what dose?)? (And at what dose?)
PesticidesPesticides
Nanotechnology Nanotechnology
Pharmaceuticals in drinking waterPharmaceuticals in drinking water
PCBs in window caulk of buildings built orPCBs in window caulk of buildings built or
renovated 1950 – 1978renovated 1950 – 1978
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD
• WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCESWHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES??
-- DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD. DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD.
- WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer)- WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer)
- DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal- DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal
skin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatalskin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatal
(melanoma)(melanoma)
- FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term – sunburn), or - FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term – sunburn), or Chronic (longer lasting – lifelong risk of skin cancer.)Chronic (longer lasting – lifelong risk of skin cancer.)
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD
• HOW HAZARDOUSHOW HAZARDOUS??
H1N1H1N1 Mercury Mercury (Philippe Grandjean et al., “Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children (Philippe Grandjean et al., “Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children
with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury,” with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury,” Neurotoxicology and TeratologyNeurotoxicology and Teratology
19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417–428) 19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417–428)
Nuclear radiation Nuclear radiation (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII,(Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII,
Phase 2,” National Research Council of the National Academies of Science,Phase 2,” National Research Council of the National Academies of Science,
www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=030909156X) www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=030909156X)
Solar radiationSolar radiation
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARDHAZARD
• HAZARDOUS TO WHOMHAZARDOUS TO WHOM? (? (SUBGROUPSSUBGROUPS!)!)
CRIMECRIME
MERCURYMERCURY
DRIVINGDRIVING
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, LOCATION. LOCATION.
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• DOSEDOSE
• BY WHAT ROUTEBY WHAT ROUTE??
INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMALINHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL
• OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIMEOVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME??
SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?
• AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE?
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• DOSEDOSE
• BY WHAT ROUTEBY WHAT ROUTE??
INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMALINHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL
• OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIMEOVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME??
SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?SHORT TERM? LIFETIME?
• AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE?
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL
• TRADE OFFSTRADE OFFS
Energy Choices, Air Bags, PharmaceuticalsEnergy Choices, Air Bags, Pharmaceuticals
Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v. Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v.
negative effects of mercury from fish for negative effects of mercury from fish for developing fetal health) developing fetal health) Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, “Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's “Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's
Development,” Development,” LancetLancet 369, no. 369, no. 9561 (2007), pp. 537–538.9561 (2007), pp. 537–538.
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL
• VARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOODVARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOOD
Risk of dying in a plane crash Risk of dying in a plane crash
Per mile? Per flight? Per average American?Per mile? Per flight? Per average American?
Per average flier? Per frequent flier?Per average flier? Per frequent flier?
Averages over what period? Averages over what period?
(10 yr. avg. includes 9/11)(10 yr. avg. includes 9/11)
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL
Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!
PROBABILITIESPROBABILITIES
GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC?GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC?
• Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America. (America. (EPA)EPA)
• It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year.It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year.• 85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL
Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!
PROBABILITIESPROBABILITIES
ANNUAL OR LIFETIME?ANNUAL OR LIFETIME? The average American’s chance of getting The average American’s chance of getting
cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225. cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225.
The average American woman’s lifetime risk of The average American woman’s lifetime risk of getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, it’s 1 in 2.getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, it’s 1 in 2.
KEY ELEMENTS OF KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALRISK IN GENERAL
Fun With Numbers!Fun With Numbers!
ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE?ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE?
A risk that is one in a million for the average A risk that is one in a million for the average person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute
deathsdeaths
ABSOLUTEABSOLUTE RELATIVERELATIVE How many? How Many COMPAREDHow many? How Many COMPARED
to something else to something else
RISK NUMBERSRELATIVE VS. ABSOLUTE
Relative annual risk of dying on the job rose 65%. (Subhead, lead)
Absolute annual risk of dying on the job went from 15 in a million to 25 in a million. (not mentioned anywhere in the story)