cowra water supply development plan - mustang · 3/6/2018  · 50 years. short term alternatives....

COWRA Water Supply Development Plan

Mustang City CouncilMarch 6, 2018

MARY ELIZABETH MACH, PE

Agenda

• Project Overview

• Baseline Development and Existing Assessment

• Alternatives

• Capital Improvements Phasing Plan

• Questions

IntroductionStrategic Water Supply Development Plan

Baseline Development

Baseline Development

Baseline Development

Baseline Development

Existing System Assessment

Existing System Assessment

Existing System Assessment

Alternatives Evaluation

Alternatives Evaluation

Plan Development

Task #1 Task #2 Task #3 Task #4

Work

sh

op

Work

sh

op

Work

sh

op

A 50-year Water Solution 2017 - 2067

Task #1: Baseline Development

Baseline Development Approach

Population Projections

Estimate Current Demand

Project Future

Demands

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2067

Se

rvic

e P

op

ula

tio

n

Historical Yukon Projected Mustang Projected

Okarche Projected Calumet Projected Canadian Co RWDs

Population Projections

64,044

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2067

Se

rvic

e P

op

ula

tio

n

Historical Yukon Projected Mustang Projected

Okarche Projected Calumet Projected Canadian Co RWDs

Population Projections

64,044

Mustang 2067 Population ≈ 24,256

Water Demand Projection Procedure

Projected Population

Per Capita Demand

Avg. Future

Demand

Avg. Future

Demand

Peaking Factor

Max Future

Demand

9.0

21.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067

Wa

ter

De

ma

nd

(M

GD

)

Projected Average Daily Demand Projected Maximum Day Demand

Avg. Peaking Factor = 2.5

COWRA Demand Summary

19.6

8.2

2042

Task #2: Existing System Assessment

Existing System Assessment

Source Water Evaluation

Infrastructure Assessment and Capacity

Regulatory Compliance

Source Water Evaluation:

Mustang

Mustang’s Demand vs. Allocation

2.91

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

De

ma

nd

(M

GD

)

Year

Projected Average Day Demand

Allocated Water Rights – 3.4 MGD

Well Field Production Capacities

Firm Well Production - Mustang

• Mustang’s max day demand is currently greater than the FIRM well production capacity

8.15

2.91

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

De

ma

nd

(M

GD

)

Year

Projected Max Day Demand Projected Average Day Demand

Firm Capacity – 2.5 MGD

Raw Water Conveyance Capacity

Raw Water Conveyance Capacities

ProviderMain

Length (ft)

Main

Diameter (in)

2067 Max

Day Demand

(MGD)

Velocity

(fps)

Calumet 25,000 6 0.29 2.3

Mustang 52,250 16 8.15 9.0

Okarche 70,500 10 0.96 2.7

Yukon 47,750 24 7.60 3.7

Canadian Co Water

AUTH16,750 6 0.85 6.7

Canadian Co RWD #145,000 6 0.54 4.3

14,250 8 0.54 2.4

Canadian Co RWD #4 15,750 6 0.56 4.4

Canadian Co RWD #5 19,600 6 0.28 2.2

Assumes 100% of Max Day flow routed through water main.

Peak velocity of 9 fps means water main likely needs to be upsized in the future.

Regulatory Compliance

Assessment

Mustang – Quality Concerns

Increased OKC purchase to dilute Arsenic concentration

Provider Analyte Group Name

Mustang Arsenic

Existing System Assessment Discussion

Okarche

COWRA Primary Concerns

• Groundwater Allocation

• Arsenic and Nitrates

• Increased OKC

Purchase for Blending

Task #3: Alternatives Evaluation

Plan Alternatives

Short-Term Alternative

Implementation Window

1-3 years

Individual demands

2-10 years

Long-Term Alternative

Implementation Window >3 years

Meet COWRA demands 50 years

Short Term Alternatives

Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment

ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment

ST3 – Combined Arsenic Treatment

ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment

ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse

ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse

ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network

ST8 – New well field for non-pot

ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.

ST1 – Mustang Treatment

ST2 – Yukon Treatment

ST3 – Combined Treatment

Recommended Alternative

Non-Monetary vs. Monetary Eval.

Alternatives with the highest non-monetary score

Alt. No. DescriptionFlow Contribution

(MGD)

ROM Capital

Cost Estimate

ST1 Mustang Garber-Wellington Treatment 3.4* $7,120,000

ST2 Yukon Garber-Wellington Treatment 4.3* $7,120,000

ST3 Mustang/Yukon Combined Groundwater Treatment 7.7* $21,830,000

ST4 Nitrate Treatment of Existing North Canadian River

Alluvium Groundwater0.36 $8,820,000

ST5 Non-Potable Reuse (Mustang) 0.37 $3,510,000

ST6 Non-Potable Reuse (Yukon) 0.22 $3,980,000

ST7-AExisting Groundwater for Non-Potable Applications

(Mustang)0.37 $930,000

ST7-B Existing Groundwater for Non-Potable Applications (Yukon) 0.22 $840,000

ST8 New Well Field with Non-Potable Distribution Network - -

ST9 Purchase Agreement with the City of Piedmont - $10,120,000

Short-Term Alternatives

* Assumes 2.0 EPS of the Garber Wellington Aquifer

Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment

ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment

ST3 – Combined Arsenic Treatment

ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment

ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse

ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse

ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network

ST8 – New well field for non-pot

ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.

ST1 – Mustang Treatment

ST2 – Yukon Treatment

ST3 – Combined Treatment

Recommended Alternative

Short-Term Alternatives

Alternative DescriptionFlow

(MGD)

Capital Cost

($)

25-Year NPV

Cost

($)

O&M Cost

($/kgal)*

25-Year

NPV Cost*

($/kgal)

ST1 Mustang GWA Treatment 3.4 $7.1 M $24.9 M $0.68 $1.06

ST2 Yukon GWA Treatment 4.3 $7.1 M $31.9 M $0.75 $1.04

ST3Mustang/Yukon Combined

Treatment7.7 $21.8 M $63.9 M $0.68 $1.18

*Includes 30% Contingency

Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment

ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment

ST3 – Combine Arsenic Treatment

ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment

ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse

ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse

ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network

ST8 – New well field for non-pot

ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.

ST1 – Mustang Treatment

ST2 – Yukon Treatment

ST3 – Combined Treatment

Mustang and/or Yukon

• Makes use of existing infrastructure

• Easily implementable • Maximizes water rights

Long Term Alternatives

Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North

LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington

LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74

LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81

LT4 – Canadian River

LT5 – North Canadian River

LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer

LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse

LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse

LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells

LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells

LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Shortlist 1

Shortlist 2

Shortlist 3

Recommended Alternative

Monetary vs. Non-Monetary Eval.

Alternatives with the highest non-monetary score

Long-Term Alternatives

Alt. No. DescriptionROM Capital

Cost Estimate

LT1-A1 Rush Springs Aquifer – Southern Alignment $294 M

LT1-A2 Rush Springs Aquifer – Southern Alignment (Horizontal) $286-$314 M

LT1-B1 Rush Springs Aquifer – Northern Alignment $219 M

LT1-B2 Rush Springs Aquifer – Northern Alignment (Horizontal) $211-$239 M

LT2-A Eastern Garber-Wellington Aquifer $252 M

LT2-B Eastern Garber-Wellington Aquifer (Horizontal) $224-$255 M

LT3-A Kaw Lake – Highway 74 Alignment $847 M

LT3-B Kaw Lake – Highway 81 Alignment $835 M

LT4 Canadian River Alluvial Aquifer $335 M

LT5 North Canadian River Alluvial Aquifer $294 M

LT6 Ogallala Aquifer $427 M

LT7 Indirect Potable Reuse – Riverbank Filtration $282 M

LT8 Direct Potable Reuse $306 M

LT9-A

Utilization of Nearby Community’s Groundwater Resources with Vertical

Wells$130 M

LT9-B

Utilization of Nearby Community’s Groundwater Resources with

Horizontal Wells$118-$136 M

Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North

LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington

LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74

LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81

LT4 – Canadian River

LT5 – North Canadian River

LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer

LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse

LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse

LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells

LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells

LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Rush Springs

Eastern Garber-Wellington

New Community

Long-Term Alternatives

Alternatives DescriptionCapital

Cost

25-Year

NPV Cost

O&M Cost

($/kgal)

25-Year NPV

Cost ($/kgal)

Rush Springs

LT1-A1Southern Alignment with

Vertical Wells$293.8 M $475.0 M $1.50 $6.34

LT1-B1Northern Alignment with

Vertical Wells$218.7 M $347.8 M $1.04 $4.64

Eastern Garber-

WellingtonLT2-A

Eastern Garber-Wellington

with Vertical Wells$252.2 M $414.5 M $1.37 $5.53

Nearby

Community’s Water

with Treatment

LT9-A

Utilization of Nearby

Community's Groundwater

with Vertical Wells

$129.9 M $241.2 M $1.17 $3.35

*Includes contingency and raw water purchase from nearby community

Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North

LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington

LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74

LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81

LT4 – Canadian River

LT5 – North Canadian River

LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer

LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse

LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse

LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells

LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells

LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South

LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Rush Springs

Eastern Garber-Wellington

New Community

New Community

• Builds on short term alternative

• Utilizes nearby water source

• Makes use of existing infrastructure

• Easily implementable

Implementation Plans for Short-term and Long-term Alternatives

Short-Term Alternatives

Water Supply Development Plan – ST1 or ST2

Capital Project 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Water Treatment

Design and Professional Services

$828,000 $216,000 $1,044,000

Land/Easement Acquisition $56,000 $56,000

New Arsenic Treatment Facility $6,020,000 $6,020,000

Total Capital $0 $884,000 $6,236,000 $0 $0 $7,120,000

Short-Term Alternative Phasing

$0 M

$1 M

$2 M

$3 M

$4 M

$5 M

$6 M

$7 M

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Ca

pita

l Ou

tla

y ($

M)

Construction

Easement

Professional Services

Capital Improvements Plan

Phase 5 (2038-2042)

No major capital improvements

Phase 4 (2033-2037)

Complete wellfield for max day capacity Add 4 wells

Phase 3 (2028-2032)

Conveyance to Okarche Mustang Transmission Main Add 4 wells

Phase 2 (2023-2027)

Conveyance to Calumet Add 19 wells

Phase 1 (2018-2022)

Construct arsenic treatment Conveyance to Mustang and Yukon Add 12 wells

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042

Capacity

(MG

D)

Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand

Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage

Capital Improvements Plan

Current Max Day Production Gap ≈ 10 MGD

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042

Capacity

(MG

D)

Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand

Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage

Capital Improvements Plan

Gradually increase wellfield capacity. Meet COWRA max

day demand around 2032

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042

Capacity

(MG

D)

Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand

Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage

Capital Improvements Plan

Retain OKC connection, gradually reduce

purchase

$0 M

$5 M

$10 M

$15 M

$20 M

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042

Water Supply

Water Treatment

Conveyance

Capital Improvements Plan

Short-Term Plan

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Capital Improvements Plan

$0 M

$5 M

$10 M

$15 M

$20 M

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042

Professional Services

Easement

Construction

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2018 2028 2038 2048 2058

Wa

ter

De

ma

nd

(M

GD

)

Projected Average Daily Demand Mustang and Yukon Groundwater Rights

Water Rights

Mustang/Yukon combined existing groundwater rights are sufficient for

COWRA demands until 2030

2030

Negotiation Window

Phasing plan balances capital with

actual demands

• As demands increase, add wells

• If demands slow, decrease or delay wellfield expansion

• Maintain OKC Connection

• Begin Water Rights Negotiation

COWRA Water Supply Development Plan

Mustang City CouncilMarch 6, 2018

MARY ELIZABETH MACH, PE