cowra water supply development plan - mustang · 3/6/2018 · 50 years. short term alternatives....
TRANSCRIPT
COWRA Water Supply Development Plan
Mustang City CouncilMarch 6, 2018
MARY ELIZABETH MACH, PE
Agenda
• Project Overview
• Baseline Development and Existing Assessment
• Alternatives
• Capital Improvements Phasing Plan
• Questions
IntroductionStrategic Water Supply Development Plan
Baseline Development
Baseline Development
Baseline Development
Baseline Development
Existing System Assessment
Existing System Assessment
Existing System Assessment
Alternatives Evaluation
Alternatives Evaluation
Plan Development
Task #1 Task #2 Task #3 Task #4
Work
sh
op
Work
sh
op
Work
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op
A 50-year Water Solution 2017 - 2067
Task #1: Baseline Development
Baseline Development Approach
Population Projections
Estimate Current Demand
Project Future
Demands
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2067
Se
rvic
e P
op
ula
tio
n
Historical Yukon Projected Mustang Projected
Okarche Projected Calumet Projected Canadian Co RWDs
Population Projections
64,044
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2067
Se
rvic
e P
op
ula
tio
n
Historical Yukon Projected Mustang Projected
Okarche Projected Calumet Projected Canadian Co RWDs
Population Projections
64,044
Mustang 2067 Population ≈ 24,256
Water Demand Projection Procedure
Projected Population
Per Capita Demand
Avg. Future
Demand
Avg. Future
Demand
Peaking Factor
Max Future
Demand
9.0
21.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067
Wa
ter
De
ma
nd
(M
GD
)
Projected Average Daily Demand Projected Maximum Day Demand
Avg. Peaking Factor = 2.5
COWRA Demand Summary
19.6
8.2
2042
Task #2: Existing System Assessment
Existing System Assessment
Source Water Evaluation
Infrastructure Assessment and Capacity
Regulatory Compliance
Source Water Evaluation:
Mustang
Mustang’s Demand vs. Allocation
2.91
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
De
ma
nd
(M
GD
)
Year
Projected Average Day Demand
Allocated Water Rights – 3.4 MGD
Well Field Production Capacities
Firm Well Production - Mustang
• Mustang’s max day demand is currently greater than the FIRM well production capacity
8.15
2.91
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
De
ma
nd
(M
GD
)
Year
Projected Max Day Demand Projected Average Day Demand
Firm Capacity – 2.5 MGD
Raw Water Conveyance Capacity
Raw Water Conveyance Capacities
ProviderMain
Length (ft)
Main
Diameter (in)
2067 Max
Day Demand
(MGD)
Velocity
(fps)
Calumet 25,000 6 0.29 2.3
Mustang 52,250 16 8.15 9.0
Okarche 70,500 10 0.96 2.7
Yukon 47,750 24 7.60 3.7
Canadian Co Water
AUTH16,750 6 0.85 6.7
Canadian Co RWD #145,000 6 0.54 4.3
14,250 8 0.54 2.4
Canadian Co RWD #4 15,750 6 0.56 4.4
Canadian Co RWD #5 19,600 6 0.28 2.2
Assumes 100% of Max Day flow routed through water main.
Peak velocity of 9 fps means water main likely needs to be upsized in the future.
Regulatory Compliance
Assessment
Mustang – Quality Concerns
Increased OKC purchase to dilute Arsenic concentration
Provider Analyte Group Name
Mustang Arsenic
Existing System Assessment Discussion
Okarche
COWRA Primary Concerns
• Groundwater Allocation
• Arsenic and Nitrates
• Increased OKC
Purchase for Blending
Task #3: Alternatives Evaluation
Plan Alternatives
Short-Term Alternative
Implementation Window
1-3 years
Individual demands
2-10 years
Long-Term Alternative
Implementation Window >3 years
Meet COWRA demands 50 years
Short Term Alternatives
Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment
ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment
ST3 – Combined Arsenic Treatment
ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment
ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse
ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse
ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network
ST8 – New well field for non-pot
ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.
ST1 – Mustang Treatment
ST2 – Yukon Treatment
ST3 – Combined Treatment
Recommended Alternative
Non-Monetary vs. Monetary Eval.
Alternatives with the highest non-monetary score
Alt. No. DescriptionFlow Contribution
(MGD)
ROM Capital
Cost Estimate
ST1 Mustang Garber-Wellington Treatment 3.4* $7,120,000
ST2 Yukon Garber-Wellington Treatment 4.3* $7,120,000
ST3 Mustang/Yukon Combined Groundwater Treatment 7.7* $21,830,000
ST4 Nitrate Treatment of Existing North Canadian River
Alluvium Groundwater0.36 $8,820,000
ST5 Non-Potable Reuse (Mustang) 0.37 $3,510,000
ST6 Non-Potable Reuse (Yukon) 0.22 $3,980,000
ST7-AExisting Groundwater for Non-Potable Applications
(Mustang)0.37 $930,000
ST7-B Existing Groundwater for Non-Potable Applications (Yukon) 0.22 $840,000
ST8 New Well Field with Non-Potable Distribution Network - -
ST9 Purchase Agreement with the City of Piedmont - $10,120,000
Short-Term Alternatives
* Assumes 2.0 EPS of the Garber Wellington Aquifer
Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment
ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment
ST3 – Combined Arsenic Treatment
ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment
ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse
ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse
ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network
ST8 – New well field for non-pot
ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.
ST1 – Mustang Treatment
ST2 – Yukon Treatment
ST3 – Combined Treatment
Recommended Alternative
Short-Term Alternatives
Alternative DescriptionFlow
(MGD)
Capital Cost
($)
25-Year NPV
Cost
($)
O&M Cost
($/kgal)*
25-Year
NPV Cost*
($/kgal)
ST1 Mustang GWA Treatment 3.4 $7.1 M $24.9 M $0.68 $1.06
ST2 Yukon GWA Treatment 4.3 $7.1 M $31.9 M $0.75 $1.04
ST3Mustang/Yukon Combined
Treatment7.7 $21.8 M $63.9 M $0.68 $1.18
*Includes 30% Contingency
Short-Term AlternativesST1 – Mustang Arsenic treatment
ST2 – Yukon Arsenic Treatment
ST3 – Combine Arsenic Treatment
ST4 – Okarche Nitrate Treatment
ST5 – Mustang Non-pot Reuse
ST6 – Yukon Non-pot Reuse
ST7 – Existing groundwater for Non-pot network
ST8 – New well field for non-pot
ST9 – Okarche purchase from the City of Piedmont.
ST1 – Mustang Treatment
ST2 – Yukon Treatment
ST3 – Combined Treatment
Mustang and/or Yukon
• Makes use of existing infrastructure
• Easily implementable • Maximizes water rights
Long Term Alternatives
Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North
LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington
LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74
LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81
LT4 – Canadian River
LT5 – North Canadian River
LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer
LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse
LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse
LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells
LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells
LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Shortlist 1
Shortlist 2
Shortlist 3
Recommended Alternative
Monetary vs. Non-Monetary Eval.
Alternatives with the highest non-monetary score
Long-Term Alternatives
Alt. No. DescriptionROM Capital
Cost Estimate
LT1-A1 Rush Springs Aquifer – Southern Alignment $294 M
LT1-A2 Rush Springs Aquifer – Southern Alignment (Horizontal) $286-$314 M
LT1-B1 Rush Springs Aquifer – Northern Alignment $219 M
LT1-B2 Rush Springs Aquifer – Northern Alignment (Horizontal) $211-$239 M
LT2-A Eastern Garber-Wellington Aquifer $252 M
LT2-B Eastern Garber-Wellington Aquifer (Horizontal) $224-$255 M
LT3-A Kaw Lake – Highway 74 Alignment $847 M
LT3-B Kaw Lake – Highway 81 Alignment $835 M
LT4 Canadian River Alluvial Aquifer $335 M
LT5 North Canadian River Alluvial Aquifer $294 M
LT6 Ogallala Aquifer $427 M
LT7 Indirect Potable Reuse – Riverbank Filtration $282 M
LT8 Direct Potable Reuse $306 M
LT9-A
Utilization of Nearby Community’s Groundwater Resources with Vertical
Wells$130 M
LT9-B
Utilization of Nearby Community’s Groundwater Resources with
Horizontal Wells$118-$136 M
Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North
LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington
LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74
LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81
LT4 – Canadian River
LT5 – North Canadian River
LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer
LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse
LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse
LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells
LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells
LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Rush Springs
Eastern Garber-Wellington
New Community
Long-Term Alternatives
Alternatives DescriptionCapital
Cost
25-Year
NPV Cost
O&M Cost
($/kgal)
25-Year NPV
Cost ($/kgal)
Rush Springs
LT1-A1Southern Alignment with
Vertical Wells$293.8 M $475.0 M $1.50 $6.34
LT1-B1Northern Alignment with
Vertical Wells$218.7 M $347.8 M $1.04 $4.64
Eastern Garber-
WellingtonLT2-A
Eastern Garber-Wellington
with Vertical Wells$252.2 M $414.5 M $1.37 $5.53
Nearby
Community’s Water
with Treatment
LT9-A
Utilization of Nearby
Community's Groundwater
with Vertical Wells
$129.9 M $241.2 M $1.17 $3.35
*Includes contingency and raw water purchase from nearby community
Long-Term AlternativesLT1-A(1) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(1) – Rush Springs – North
LT2 – Eastern Garber-Wellington
LT3-A – Kaw Lake – HW 74
LT3-B – Kaw Lake – HW 81
LT4 – Canadian River
LT5 – North Canadian River
LT6 – Ogallala Aquifer
LT8 – Direct Potable Reuse
LT7 – Indirect Potable Reuse
LT9-A – New Community – Vert wells
LT9-B – New Community – Horiz wells
LT1-A(2) – Rush Springs - South
LT1-B(2) – Rush Springs – North Rush Springs
Eastern Garber-Wellington
New Community
New Community
• Builds on short term alternative
• Utilizes nearby water source
• Makes use of existing infrastructure
• Easily implementable
Implementation Plans for Short-term and Long-term Alternatives
Short-Term Alternatives
Water Supply Development Plan – ST1 or ST2
Capital Project 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
Water Treatment
Design and Professional Services
$828,000 $216,000 $1,044,000
Land/Easement Acquisition $56,000 $56,000
New Arsenic Treatment Facility $6,020,000 $6,020,000
Total Capital $0 $884,000 $6,236,000 $0 $0 $7,120,000
Short-Term Alternative Phasing
$0 M
$1 M
$2 M
$3 M
$4 M
$5 M
$6 M
$7 M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ca
pita
l Ou
tla
y ($
M)
Construction
Easement
Professional Services
Capital Improvements Plan
Phase 5 (2038-2042)
No major capital improvements
Phase 4 (2033-2037)
Complete wellfield for max day capacity Add 4 wells
Phase 3 (2028-2032)
Conveyance to Okarche Mustang Transmission Main Add 4 wells
Phase 2 (2023-2027)
Conveyance to Calumet Add 19 wells
Phase 1 (2018-2022)
Construct arsenic treatment Conveyance to Mustang and Yukon Add 12 wells
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042
Capacity
(MG
D)
Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand
Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage
Capital Improvements Plan
Current Max Day Production Gap ≈ 10 MGD
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042
Capacity
(MG
D)
Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand
Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage
Capital Improvements Plan
Gradually increase wellfield capacity. Meet COWRA max
day demand around 2032
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042
Capacity
(MG
D)
Existing Mustang/Yukon Firm Capacity COWRA Projected Max Day Demand
Proposed Total Capacity OKC Usage
Capital Improvements Plan
Retain OKC connection, gradually reduce
purchase
$0 M
$5 M
$10 M
$15 M
$20 M
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042
Water Supply
Water Treatment
Conveyance
Capital Improvements Plan
Short-Term Plan
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Capital Improvements Plan
$0 M
$5 M
$10 M
$15 M
$20 M
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042
Professional Services
Easement
Construction
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
2018 2028 2038 2048 2058
Wa
ter
De
ma
nd
(M
GD
)
Projected Average Daily Demand Mustang and Yukon Groundwater Rights
Water Rights
Mustang/Yukon combined existing groundwater rights are sufficient for
COWRA demands until 2030
2030
Negotiation Window
Phasing plan balances capital with
actual demands
• As demands increase, add wells
• If demands slow, decrease or delay wellfield expansion
• Maintain OKC Connection
• Begin Water Rights Negotiation
COWRA Water Supply Development Plan
Mustang City CouncilMarch 6, 2018
MARY ELIZABETH MACH, PE