collaborative observations to search 1968-081e fragments uetsuhara masahiko 1, yanagisawa toshifumi...

Collaborative observations to search 1968-081E fragments

UETSUHARA Masahiko1, YANAGISAWA Toshifumi2, KINOSHITA Daisuke3,HANADA Toshiya1, KITAZAWA Yukihito4

1 Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan2 Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan3 National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan4 IHI Corporation, Tokyo, Japan

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12 1

Overview of the collaborative observations

40 uncataloged objects are detected to be identified with the 1968-081E fragments

2

TAOS (Φ50cm)FOV: 1.74°×1.78° CCD: 2k2k

LOT (Φ1m)FOV: 26.4’×13.2’ CCD: 4k2k

JNO (Φ35cm)FOV: 1.27°×1.27°CCD: 2k2k

Nyukasaobservatory

Lulin observatory

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Search target 1968-081E (Titan IIIC Transtage) fragmentsObservation period 20 – 22 Oct. 2011 (3 nights)Observation mode Survey (6 hours / night)

Breakup fragments

3

Properties of breakup fragmentsSmall size (<1m) = Faint objects

Large part remains lost = Uncertainties in states

Necessity of predictive analyses16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

BREAKUP

Transtage (ref. U.S. Air Force website)

The search strategy

416 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Observation planning (1)

5

Predicted population of 1968-081E fragments as 6 hours time-integrated distribution (Bin size = 1°×1°)

Geocentric right ascension [°]

Geo

cent

ric

decl

inat

ion

[°]

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Observation planning (2)

6

Geocentric right ascension [°]

Tra

veli

ng s

peed

at p

eak

bin

[“/s

ec]

Traveling speed of 1968-081E fragments in the peak population bins seen from the Lulin Observatory

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Geocentric right ascension [°]

Geo

cent

ric

decl

inat

ion

[°]

AB

Observation planning (3)

716 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Sensor Name

Population (6 hrs.) [#] Traveling speed [“/sec]

A B A B

TAOS 56.47 ± 1.09 39.95 ± 1.80 2.01 ± 0.55 0.87 ± 0.61LOT 27.56 ± 2.04 14.82 ± 1.77 1.96 ± 0.43 0.74 ± 0.42JNO 53.16 ± 1.32 33.21 ± 2.01 1.94 ± 0.49 0.80 ± 0.53

Earth Shadow

Nyukasa

LulinInvisible region

Origin identification (1)

8

Separation angle (φ) between 2 observed points (α1, δ1) and (α2, δ2)

Mean motion (n) is approximated from φ and observation interval (Δt) between the 2 observations

Semi-major axis (a), inclination (i), and right ascension of ascending node (Ω) can be recovered from φ and n

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

• Demonstrating the origin identification by estimating the orbits as circular ones

Correlations in the icos(Ω)-isin(Ω) plane (Hanada et al., 2005)

Origin identification (2)• 1968-081E fragments (generated by the breakup model)

in the icos(Ω)–isin(Ω) plane at the breakup epoch

916 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Origin identification (3)Probability distribution of 1968-081E fragments, applied a threshold

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Origin identification (3)40 UCTs are correlated with the 1968-081E fragments in total

1116 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Validation of observation planning

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• Traveling speed of correlated objects – 1.25 ± 0.76 “/sec

• Prediction results – 0.87 ± 0.61 “/sec

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

• Qualitative features of measured motions and predicted ones are in good correspondence

Conclusions• Collaborative observations with the search strategy

successfully demonstrated the detections of 1968-081E fragments– Observation planning with a consideration of

traveling speed of the fragments in a sensor’s FOV– Origin identification of UCTs by the circular obit

estimation

• 40 objects were correlated with 1968-081E fragments, which will be evaluated to characterize the breakup event… stay tuned!

1316 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

AcknowledgementsFor dedicated assistances to the observations

Mr. Hirohisa Kurosaki, Mr. Yoshitaka Nakaniwa, Mr. Osamu Hikawa, Mr. Takenori Ohtsuka, Mr. Taku Izumiyama, Mr. Andrew Wang, Mr. Dunkan Chen, Mr. Jason Wu, Dr. Shin-ichiro Okumura, Dr. Tsuyoshi Sakamoto, and the Japan Space Guard Association

For contributions to the research

Dr. Hitoshi Yamaoka, Dr. Tomoko Fujiwara, Dr. Tetsuharu Fuse, Mrs. Kozue Hashimoto, and Mr. Aritsune Kawabe

IHI Corporation wishes to acknowledge US Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) Asian Office of Aerospace Research and Development (AOARD) to support the research under the grant No. FA2386-10-1-4136 (AOARD 104136).

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12 14

BACKUP SLIDES

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12 15

Historical breakup events in GEO

• Ekran II (1977-092A)– Breakup epoch: 1978.6.23– Explosion breakup (battery malfunction)– 4 cataloged fragments

• Titan IIIC Transtage (1968-081E)– Breakup epoch: 1992.2.21– Explosion breakup (remnant fuel)– 23 fragments have been observed in near breakup epoch

(Pensa, et al., 1996)

– 8 cataloged fragments

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12 16

• And ≥ 9 suspected (unconfirmed) events

Transtage (ref. U.S. Air Force website)

Research objective

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Final goal aims to contribute to Space Situational Awareness1. Investigation of orbital debris generation process

– Model predictions vs. Observation results

2. Evaluation of orbital debris environment– Better definition of the current situation for secure space activities

This study;• Establishment of effective search strategy applicable for

breakup fragments in the geostationary region by means of optical observations

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Modeling of breakup fragments

1816 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

The search strategy (previous)

1916 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Breakup model

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The NASA standardbreakup model

Ref. MASTER-2009 final report

Parent spacecraft fixed frame

Parent spacecraft

Breakup fragments

Δv vector

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

16 cm

100 cm

Detection resultDetection results at TAOS (φ50-cm)

by the FPGA-based stacking method (Yanagisawa et al., 2011)

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51 CTs and 96 UCTs

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Survey planning

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A keyword to develop the effective search strategy

= Identification

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12 23

Identification

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FOV

Signal

Signal identification

Tracklet identification

Physical object identification

Origin identification

Tracklet

=

Orbit

Tracklets

x1 x2 x3

xn・・・

Orbital elements space

time

Process

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Identification

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FOV

Signal

Signal identification

Tracklet identification

Physical object identification

Origin identification

Tracklet

=

Orbit

Tracklets

x1 x2 x3

xn・・・

Orbital elements space

time

Image processing

Orbit determination

Orbital debris modeling (ODM)16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Contributions of ODM (1)

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FOV

Signal

Signal identification

Tracklet identification

Physical object identification

Origin identification

Tracklet

=

Orbit

Tracklets

x1 x2 x3

xn・・・

Orbital elements space

time Predictions of population and motion

Detection of fainter fragments

Before stackingAfter stacking

32 images

…and Detect

Stack images along a

shift vector

The stacking method

α

δ

ΔX

ΔY

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Contributions of ODM (2)

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FOV

Signal

Signal identification

Tracklet identification

Physical object identification

Origin identification

Tracklet

=

Orbit

Tracklets

x1 x2 x3

xn・・・

Orbital elements space

timeIdentification of

tracklets to a right

origin

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Contributions of ODM (3)

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FOV

Signal

Signal identification

Tracklet identification

Physical object identification

Origin identification

Tracklet

=

Orbit

Tracklets

x1 x2 x3

xn・・・

Orbital elements space

time Identification of a physical object to

a right origin

16 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12

Origin identification (3)

1968-081E fragments, whose cumulative probability is 97%.

2916 July 2012 39th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, PEDAS.1-0002-12