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Climate Science and Uncertainty: Improving Assessments and Decision Support
and an Overview of the
IPCC Special Report on Extremes
Dr. Richard H. Moss Joint Global Change Research Institute
Pacific Northwest Nat'l Lab/University of Maryland For
Rutgers University Initiative on Climate and Society Extreme Weather and Climate Change:
How Can We Address Uncertainty?
3/30/12 1 PNNL-SA-86838
Acknowledgements
! Numerous colleagues including Jae Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Allison Thomson, Jennie Rice, Stephen Unwin, Michael Scott, Anthony Janetos, Elizabeth Malone, John Weyant, Tom Wilbanks, Ken Kunkel, Adam Parris, Holly Hartman, Kathy Jacobs, Gary Yohe, Kris Ebi, Tom Kram, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Elmar Kriegler, Tim Carter
! DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program, Bob Vallario ! NASA, Jack Kaye
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 2
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 3
How can we inform decisions that need to be made under deep uncertainty?
Assessments
Selected past and ongoing assessments: ! A series of international Stratospheric Ozone Assessments (started
in 1980s) ! Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) periodic
comprehensive assessments (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007) plus numerous special reports
! National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000, 2009, 2013)
! U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Products (21 reports, 2006-2009)
! Global Biodiversity Assessment (GBA) (1995) ! Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2004) ! Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2005) ! Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity & Ecosystem
Services (IPBES) proposed IPCC-like assessment (2011-12)
Source: NRC (2007), Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned 3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 4
Uncertainty language for assessments
! Purpose: inform users of confidence levels and uncertainties
! IPCC (Moss and Schneider, 2001) 3rd assessment, with revisions for 4th and 5th assessments
! US National Climate Assessment ! Confidence assessment
process and language ! Progress, but consistent
failure to perform serious evaluations
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 5
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National climate assessment confidence terms
Issues and questions
! The rate at which new knowledge becomes available? ! The burden on the scientific community? ! Participation from industry? ! Role of an authorizing environment or mandate from governments? ! Adequacy of budgets? ! Communications strategy? ! Link to decision making? ! Analysis and communication of uncertainty?
Source: NRC (2007), Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned 3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 7
Theme and topics
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 8
! Theme: Communication requires more engagement with users – there is some progress to report
1. Scenarios ! New international scenario process ! US National Climate Change
Assessment scenarios 2. Integrated regional modeling for
adaptation and mitigation ! Stakeholder driven uncertainty
characterization ! IPCC Special Report on Extremes
What are scenarios and why use them?
! Scenarios are plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold ! Used to gain insight into the
future, not to "predict" it ! Encourage creative thinking ! Inform decisions
! Scenarios in climate research: ! Establish consistent inputs to
modeling ! Frame uncertainty (including
risks) ! Communicate
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Time Today Future Horizon
Alt. Futures
Why we can't predict climate change (and why scenarios are important)
! Human choices are driving change and aren't predictable
! Scenarios provide "if-then" insights and a basis for projecting change given assumptions
! Projecting climate change is difficult due to ! Natural variability ! Numerous processes ! Many parameterizations
! Climate process research and modeling are the foundation for climate projections
! Social science research provides foundation for emissions scenarios
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 10
Cred
it: USG
CRP
Climate change research depends as much on social science as natural science
! Drivers ! Resource use and
scarcity ! Exposure ! Sensitivity ! Adaptive capacity ! Capacity for
mitigation ! Decision making
under uncertainty and risk management
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 11
Historical perspective on emissions scenarios for climate research
! Early period: instantaneous 2x (or 4x) increases in CO2 concentrations
! Early 1990s: transient increase (1%/yr) in CO2 ! 1990s: increasing complexity of gases and particles
! SA90 (included policy cases) ! IS92 (multiple realizations of "business as usual")
! 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) ! Narratives of socioeconomic futures drive emissions
! 2009: "Parallel" scenario process ! Shorter development time ! Socioeconomic futures explore vulnerability as well as emissions
4/1/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 12
Scenario types and sequencing in climate change research
Source: Moss et al. 2010
SOCIO-‐
ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
• PopulaJon • GDP • Energy • Industry • TransportaJon • Agriculture • …
EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, …) • ParJcles and chemically acJve gases (SO2, BC, OC, CO, NOx, VOCs, NH30) • Land use & land cover
RADIATIVE FORCING SCENARIOS
• Atmospheric concentraJons • Carbon cycle – including ocean and terrestrial fluxes • Atmospheric chemistry
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
• Temperature • PrecipitaJon • Humidity • Soil moisture • Extreme events • …
IMPACT,
ADAPTATION, VULNERABILITY
STUDIES • Coastal zones • Hydrology and water resources • Ecosystems • Food security • Infrastructure • Human health • …
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Schematic illustration of SRES logic
Source: IPCC
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 14
Source: IPCC
Socioeconomic narratives to radiative forcing
3/30/12 15
Radiative forcing to impacts and responses
Source: IPCC 3/30/12 16
Motivations for a new process • Address critiques
– Overconfidence in scenario details – Long lead times – Misperceived one-to-one correspondence between
socioeconomic scenarios and climate futures
• Evolving information needs – Increasing focus on
adaptation • Scientific requirements
– Improve coordination to manage model overlaps
• IPCC’s new role
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 17
Socioeconomic pathways
Vulnerability: exposure, sensiJvity, adapJve
capacity
Emissions drivers, miJgaJve capacity
Radia8ve Forcing:
Representa8ve Concentra8on Pathways
GHGs, other gases, and parJcle concentraJons over Jme; land cover
W/m2 in 2100
Earth System Model Simula8ons
Climate change, climate
variability
Integrated Analyses
MiJgaJon, adaptaJon, impacts
Current task Ongoing (CMIP5)
New scenarios: "Parallel Process"
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
FOUR RCPs
Source: Moss et al., 2010
Content of RCP Database
! Data for climate modelers or atmospheric chemists hap://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-‐apps/tnt/RcpDb/
GHG Emissions and Concentrations from IAMs
! Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFC s, PFCs, SF6 ! Emissions of chemically active gases: CO, NOx, NH4, VOCs ! Derived GHG’s: tropospheric O3
! Emissions of aerosols: SO2, BC, OC ! Land use and land cover [NEW]
! Extension of scenarios to 2300—ECPs.
FORCING AGENTS
EXTENSIONS
! You will not find an integrated set of detailed socioeconomic storylines and scenarios (e.g., no common reference scenario)
WHAT YOU WON’T FIND
Framing: challenge to adaptation and mitigation in "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs)
3/30/12 21 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Mi8ga8on challenges Adapta8on challenges
Baseline(no-‐policy) emissions MiJgaJon capacity
Exposure SensiJvity
AdapJve capacity
PopulaJon Carbon intensity
Agricultural producJvity Energy intensity
Energy-‐related tech. change CCS availability
… EffecJveness of policy insJtuJons
Energy tech. transfer Diet
Average wealth Extreme poverty Governance
Water availability InnovaJon capacity Coastal populaJon
EducaJonal aaainment UrbanizaJon
… Quality of healthcare
Availability of insurance
Schweizer & O’Neill, in prep.
Alternative futures: population, social progress, and technology uncertainties
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' Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Application in user-driven impacts research: nested scenarios – working across scales
Finer scale information needed for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research ! "Downscaling", or ! "Place-based" scenario process
! Greater credibility, legitimacy, and salience
! Incorporate local knowledge ! Degree of coupling can vary from
global to local – can be constructed consistently with global scenarios
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 24
Households
Livelihoods
Local communities
Governments
Global Markets
Scenarios in US National Climate Assessment
March 30, 2012 25 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
US National Climate Assessment and its use of scenarios
! Mandate, process, and near-term deliverable ! Long-term goal: establish an ongoing, distributed process ! Uses of scenarios:
! Provide context of range of potential future conditions ! Establish common assumptions for modeling
! Types of scenarios: ! Four sets using existing resources based on SRES A2 and B1 scenarios:
! Climate outlooks, data, and downscaling ! Sea level – core and extended "risk management" ranges ! Land use – demographic allocation using SRES logic ! Socioeconomic – existing Census and modeled data
! Participatory scenario planning: inventory and pilot studies
26 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Now for something completely different: Participatory scenario planning
! Group visioning and planning process ! Systematic and creative evaluation of objectives and implications of
uncertain forces ! Community/user driven
! Many approaches/methods, but common steps include... 1. Discuss values and objectives, prioritize issues, and select focus 2. Identify "drivers" (including uncontrollable external forces) 3. Analyze potential impacts and risks; test plausibility of ends and means 4. Assess implications for decision making
! E.g.s; National Park Service, Western Lands and Communities, Wildlife Conservation Society, Army Corps of Engineers, Tucson Water, ...
27 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
NCA participatory scenario pilot studies: integrating different types of scenarios
Bring climate change scenarios into a participatory scenario planning process ! Participants conduct planning/visioning and then consider
ability to achieve objectives under two futures ! “The Best Chance You’ll Get” – "B1 world": environmental values, rapid
socioeconomic progress, "smart growth", low climate change ! “Big Problems, Low Capacity” – "A2 world": consumerism, slow
socioeconomic progress, sprawling urban development, high climate change
! In second stage, participants explore adaptation strategies (not just technologies) for A2 conditions
3/30/12 28
NarraJves: Divergent futures -‐ Forcing -‐ Vulnerability
Scenarios: -‐ Socioeconomic -‐ Emissions -‐ Climate -‐ Environmental
Scenarios: Driving forces -‐ Socioeconomic -‐ Emissions -‐ Climate -‐ Environmental
Visioning Scenarios ("creaJng" the future): -‐ Community development -‐ Resource planning -‐ ...
Studies and scenarios: Climate & impacts
Scenarios: TesJng adaptaJon opJons -‐ QuanJtaJve planning methods
NarraJves: -‐ Strategic thinking (e.g., low pro-‐bability, high impacts outcomes) -‐ AdaptaJon planning responses
Embracing Uncertainty
Characterizing Uncertainty
Reducing Uncertainty
Conceptual relationship among different types of scenarios and their uses
Hartman and Moss, in prep.
Global Local Regional
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Stakeholder driven uncertainty characterization in regional modeling
March 30, 2012 30 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
The need for transparent evaluation of uncertainty in regional modeling
31 3/30/12 31
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
iRESM conceptual framework
32
Key Aaributes: Open source Flexible and modular Capable of simulaJng
interacJons and resolving impacts at high resoluJon
Uncertainty characterizaJon for stakeholder quesJons and issues
iESM project (PNNL, LBNL, ORNL)
iRESM Ini8a8ve
Global Earth System Model
(CESM)
Global Integrated Assessment Model
(GCAM)
• Socioeconomics • Energy-‐Economics • Agriculture & Land Use • Water
Regionalized Integrated Assessment Model
Regional Earth System Model
• Atmosphere • Land • Ocean • Biogeochemistry
• Energy Infrastructure • Building Energy Demand • Crop Produc8vity • Water Supply • Water Management • Land Use, Land Cover
Regional Sectoral Models
Climate
Boundary Condi8ons Regional Capability
Data Exchange Climate
Feedbacks
Feedbacks
Legend
Future Development
FY13-‐14 Development
FY10-‐12 Development
Detailed iRESM framework
33
Building Electricity Demands
Ag and LU
R-GCAM Regional
Integrated Assessment
Crop ProducJvity
Sub-‐basin Water Supply
IrrigaJon Supply/Demand
Hydropower & Cooling Water Supply/Demand
Sectoral Water
Supply/ Demand
BEND Building Energy
Demand
EPIC Crop
Productivity
DCLM Distributed Hydrology
DCLM-WM Water
Management
RESM Regional Climate
Building Stock
Climate
Crop Demand
Electric Infrastructure Supply/Demand Climate
Climate
Climate
Climate
TransportaJon & Industrial Electricity Demands
Agricultural Land Cover
Land Use/ Land Cover (All)
Building Energy Demands
REIF Energy
MELD Demand
SITE Infrastructure
EOM Operations
Land Use / Land Cover
• Wisconsin Bioenergy Initiative • Wisconsin Climate Change Initiative (represents a
wide range of stakeholders) • Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies,
University of Wisconsin • Center for Sustainability and the Global
Environment, University of Wisconsin • Center for Science, Technology and Public Policy,
Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
• Minnesota Forest Resources Council • Minnesota Pollution Control Agency • Iowa State University, Climate Science Program,
Agricultural Meteorology • University of Iowa, Center for Global and Regional
Environmental Research • Great Lakes Commission • Midwest Independent System Operators (MISO) • International Plant Nutrition Institute • U.S. Department of Agriculture, ARS • Illinois Department of Agriculture
• Chesapeake Energy • Illinois Energy Office, Illinois Department of
Commerce & Economic Opportunity • Illinois EPA • City of Chicago Department of Environment • Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative • Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater
Chicago • Pennsylvania State University, several departments
34
Stakeholder organiza8ons met with as of March 2012:
Numerical experiments – stakeholder perspectives
35
Climate Crops/Land Use Energy Water
Changes in seasonal average temperatures and precipitaJon
Increased intensity and/or frequency of extreme events (rainfall, drought, heat waves)
Crop yield Land use Water use Erosion Soil carbon
and nitrogen Climate
feedbacks Emissions Crop prices Management
costs
Energy demand by end use
Electricity demand by uJlity zone (peak and total annual energy)
Electricity reserve requirements
Electricity generaJon mix Infrastructure expansion
requirements Electricity prices Emissions Fuel prices Water use Land use
Water availability and conflicts between municipal, agricultural, hydropower, and thermo-‐electric cooling needs
Key iRESM model outputs from stakeholder perspec8ve:
Numerical experiments – stakeholder perspectives
Stakeholder-driven uncertainty analysis
3/30/12
Example of decision support process
! Select a mitigation decision
! Level/form of renewable portfolio standard? ! Select a single decision criterion
! e=Electricity price (could be grid operational reliability, ag impacts, etc.)
! Select model components; assess runtimes; develop surrogates ! Address uncertainties in relevant models contributing to calculation of
costs and grid reliability ! R-GCAM ! BEND ! REIF ! RESM
Building Electricity Demands
Ag and LU
R-GCAM Energy
Economy
BEND Building Energy
Demands
REIF Electric
Infrastructure Expansion
RESM Regional Climate
Building Stock
Climate
Climate
Other Electricity Demands
Building Energy Demands
Regional Electric Capacity Expansion
Feasibility, Cost
iRESM v 0.1
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute
Need for development of UC methods for scientific insight and decision support
! Estimated runtimes for integrated models can be long, with implications for UC
! A flexible architecture and surrogate models will need to be developed to make UC tractable ! Facilitate coupling appropriate models for the research question at hand ! Based on research question or decision needs, I-O requirements, and
uncertainty source identification ! Develop and use surrogate models as needed to address runtime issues
! This approach is reflected in the draft USGCRP strategic plan, but agency programs are still driven by a 'bigger and more detailed is better' philosophy
38
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation
sample
Impacts from weather and climate events depend on:
40
nature and severity of event
vulnerability
exposure
Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters
41
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
Effective risk management and adaptation are tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
42
Changes in climate extremes vary across regions
Each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards
Effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and vulnerability
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and also help improve people’s livelihoods and well-being
43
IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process
44
Thank you
Richard H. Moss rhm@pnnl.gov
3/30/12 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 45
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