local housing market assessments - gweddill.gov.wales fileminister update may 2013 “i have...
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Local Housing Market Assessments A Local Authority Perspective
Adam Provoost, Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC
Statutory Duty
All Local Authorities have a requirement to consider the housing accommodation needs of their localities under Section 8 of the Housing Act 1985
2006 Guidance and Consultants?
New Guidance and Training 2012-13
Minister Update May 2013
“I have concluded that improving Local Housing Market Assessments is a priority…
from 1st April 2014 I will require Local Authorities to maintain and ensure that Local Housing Market Assessments are updated within a two year period…
You will need to ensure that sufficient resources are made available to produce a robust Local Housing Market Assessment”
Purpose of Today
• What data is available
• What data is required at different geographies
• Where are the data gaps
• The process and working with other local organisations
The Calculation AND the Assessment
Housing Need
Wh
ole
Ho
usi
ng
Mar
ket
Analysis
The Calculation AND the Assessment
Newly Arising Need for Intermediate Products
Newly Arising Need for Social Rent
Backlog (Waiting Lists)
Supply (New + Turnover)
New Households
Household Projections
2006 / 2008 Based
2011 / 2014 Based
Household Projections
5 Variants
High
Principal
Low
Ten Year Migration
Zero Migration
POPGROUP
HOUSEGROUP
Software
Decomposition of Change
Decomposition of Change
Land Registry Price Paid Data
• Freely Available Since March 2012
• Address Level Data
• Actual Price Paid, not Skewed by Valuations
Address/ Postcode
Date of Transfer
Price Property Type
New Build?
Freehold/ Leasehold
• Few Drawbacks; LCHO Sales and Bedrooms...
Land Registry Data: Lookup or Geocode
1.
2.
3.
House Price Statistics for Small Areas (HPSSAs)
Land Registry Data: Supplemental Data
LLPG & Turnover
Help to Buy Wales
Empty Homes
Private Rental Data
• Rent Officers Wales Data
- Aim to collect 15-20% sample across BRMAs
- BRMAs Not Representative of Local Housing Markets
- Data Unavailable at Smaller Geographies
- Reliant on Good Will – Sample Quality / Distribution?
- Advertised Rents VS Achieved Rents – Rent Inflation?
Private Rental Data: Alternatives
• Commercial Data Products
- Hometrack: Advertised Rents from Property Portals
& Assessed Rents for Buy-to-Let Mortgages
• Primary Research
- Survey of Estate and Letting Agents
- Survey of Landlords Working with the Council
Private Rents: Gaps in Data
• Need Data at Smaller Geographies (Ward, MSOA)
• Balance Existing and Advertised Rents; Rent Inflation
• Needs to be Evenly Distributed & Reflective of Markets
Household Income
- ASHE Data; Individual Earnings Only
- ONS Household Income 2014 based (MSOA)
- Gross and Net, Before and After Housing Costs
- Limitations: Timescales, Averages and Distribution
Household Income: Commercial Data
• Household Income Distribution
• Range of Geographies
Existing Households Falling into Need
Mortgage and Landlord Possession Statistics
• Ministry of Justice Data
• Available at Court or Local Authority Level
• Claims / Orders / Warrants / Repossessions
Homelessness Data
• Households found to be threatened with homelessness during the year (Section 66)
• Households found to be eligible, homeless subject to duty to help to secure during the year (Section 73)
• Households found to be eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need during the year (Section 75)
Homelessness Data
Backlog (Waiting Lists)
Housing Registers
- Property Types Selected / Bedrooms Needed
- Age Breakdown
- Household Income Data
- Current Area and First Choice Area
- Area Analysis
Housing Registers: Areas of Choice
116
54
Housing Registers: Areas of Choice
Supply
Supply
- Units Due to Come Forward Over Next Five Years
- New Build
- Empty Properties Brought Back into Use
- Turnover Within the Affordable Housing Stock
Other Context
- Ethnicity
- Growth or Decline in Households
- Car Availability by Tenure and Area
- Distance Travelled to Work
- Occupancy Rating by Tenure
- Household Information
Primary Research
- Survey of Empty Property Owners
- Focus Groups with Older People
- Survey of New Build Housing Residents
- Discussions at Forums: Landlord, Developer, RSL
All adds context to the figures...
A Never Ending Path!
Summary
• Significantly Reduced Reliance on Consultants
• Decomposition of Change; Household Projections
• Price Paid Great, Missing Number of Bedrooms
• Median Household Income Distribution at Ward/MSOA
• More Robust Private Rents Needed at Ward/MSOA