climate change and human health slide presentation and advocacy kit
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Global Climate Change CampaignPhysicians for Social Responsibility
What Is Global Warming?
GHGs — Sources and SinksSources Sinks
CO2 fossil fuels, cement production ocean and land biosphere
CH4 biomass burning, rice paddies, reaction withfossil fuels hydroxyl radicals in
atmosphere
N2O fertilization, biomass burning, photolytic destruction transportation in stratosphere
CFCs refrigerants, industrial solvents, photolytic destruction fire retardants in stratosphere
H2O evaporation cloud droplets, precipitation
GHG since 1750
“The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.”
— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Earth’s average temperature has gone up between 0.5 and 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 100 years.
— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global Air Temperature
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and U.S. EPA
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
(deg
rees
C
)Annual Mean5-Year Mean
Projections fromUnited Nations IPCC 1995
� 2 to 6.5°F elevation in temperature by year 2100
� 6- to 38-inch sea level rise by year 2100
� More hydrologic cycle extremes
The 20th century has been the warmest of the last 6 centuries.
The Warming Trend
Weather vs. Climate� Weather is the temporary, day-to-day state
of the atmosphere anywhere on the Earth’s surface.
� Climate is the long-term, prevailing pattern of weather in any given place.
280300320340360380
1850 1900 1950 2000
CO2 Concentration, Last 1,000 Years
Derived from ice-core measurements (Siple and South Pole) and direct observation (Mauna Loa, Hawaii).
Source: Based on IPCC (1994)
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health
altered food and crop productivity
extreme weather events
thermal extremes
worsened air pollution
effects on vectors and infective parasites
temperature
precipitation
sea level rise
Climate affects:
regional malnutrition and hungerdeaths, injuries and psychological disorders
altered rates of heat- and cold-related illness and death
acute and chronic respiratory disorders
infectious diseases, waterborne diseases
Source: “Human Population Health,” IPCC, 1995
Heat mortality across the U.S.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Deaths from Heat in Chicago July 1995
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
No.
of D
eath
s
Date in July 1995
Due to heat and cardiovascular diseaseDue to cardiovascular disease aloneDue to heat alone
Deaths among case subjects
Source: New England Journal of Medicine, 7/11/96
Heat Index
Heat Index
Total deaths in Chicago in all
three categories
Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
Hantavirus
DengueLeptospirosis
Yellow FeverCholera
Rift Valley FeverMeningitis Yellow Fever
Ebola
Plague
Morbillivirus
Dengue
Diphtheria
Lassa Fever
Bolivian Hemorrhagic Fever
V. Cholerae O139
AnthraxDengue
Source: World Health Organization, 1996
Status of Major Vector-borne Diseases and Predicted Sensitivity to Climate Change
Possible ChangePopulations Prevalence of Distribution
at Risk, of Infection, Present as a Result of Disease Millions Millions Distribution Climatic ChangeMalaria 2100 270 tropics, subtropics highly likelyLymphatic filariases 900 90.2 tropics, subtropics likelyOnchocerciasis 90 17.8 Africa, Latin America likelySchistosomiasis 600 200 tropics, subtropics very likelyAfrican trypanosomiasis 50 25,000 tropical Africa likely
new cases per yearLeishmaniasis 350 12 million Asia, southern Europe,
infected Africa, South America not known + 400,000 new cases per year
Dracunculiasis 63 1 tropics (Africa, Asia) unlikelyArboviral diseases
Dengue … … tropics, subtropics very likelyYellow Fever … … Africa, Latin America likelyJapanese encephalitis … … East and Southeast Asia likelyOther arboviral diseases … … tropical to temperate zones likely
Source: World Health Organization, 1994, 1995Based on world population estimate of 4.8 billion (1989)
Mosquitoes on the Move
Source: World Wildlife Fund, 1996
Warmer temperatures encourage northward migration of malaria-carrying mosquitoes
Dengue Map
Vector sensitivity to temp
Encephalitis� Correlated to sustained temperatures over
86°F � Occurs primarily in southern U.S.� Conditions range from headache to aseptic
meningitis and death
Other Vector-Borne Diseases Likely To Be Affected
Schistosomiasis water snail
Onchocerciasis black fly(river blindness)
Trypanosomiasis tsetse fly(sleeping sickness)
VectorDisease
Additional Health Threats
Changes in surface temperatures of the sea could increase cholera, shellfish poisoning, water-borne infections and toxin-related illnesses.
Potential Rise in Cholera� Cholera killed 120,000 people worldwide
in 1995 — most of them children
� Global warming could significantly increase the number of cholera cases worldwide
Reported Cases of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome
1
3
11
18
3
3
2 1
2
1
5 1
3 1Source: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report; 11/15/96, vol. 45 (45)
Climate Change and Health in the Media
David Humber, DOE, NREL
Data Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Ozone Action, 1997
David Humber, DOE, NREL
Renewable energy sources
Austin Randall Photography, DOE, NRELWarren Gretz, DOE, NREL
Alternate transportation
“The greatest risk lies
with inaction.”
economic interests
health consequence
s
Health Threats Outweigh Potential Economic Gain
Other Answers Include:Recycling used materials
More efficient use of agricultural chemicals
Better insulation
Energy-efficient lighting and production equipment
Solutions #2 (earth)
U.N. Addresses Climate Change
1992
150 countries sign the
U.N. Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
First Conference of
the Parties (COP-1) to
design negotiation process for
binding agreement
Second Conference
of the Parties
(COP-2) to negotiate voluntary
agreements
Kyoto conference to sign legally binding
agreements among nations
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997 (Dec.)
UNFCCC enacted
Nations Report Progress in Reducing CO2 Emissions
Source: UN Framework Convention for Climate Change
SomeOppose Action on Climate Change
� Drive a more fuel-efficient car, carpool or use mass transit� Walk or bicycle� Insulate your home and office� Lower your thermostat� Use energy-efficient lighting and other equipment in your home
and office� Recycle� Reduce unnecessary packaging
•What You Can Do•. . . at Home
What You Can Do
� Educate people about global warming� Support “weather-watch warning systems”� Research health trends related to global
warming� Discuss climate change with your
colleagues
. . . at Work
What You Can Do
� Publish articles� Green your workplace� Join a task force� Participate in public dialogue about the
problems associated with global warming
. . . at Work
What You Can Do
� Write to policymakers� Draft a petition� Support stronger regulatory emissions
standards� Write to the editor of your local newspaper or
professional magazine� Join Physicians for Social Responsibility
. . . to Voice Your Concern
PSR is the U.S. affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Physicians for Social Responsibility1101 14th Street, NW, Suite 700
Washington, DC 20005(202) 898-0150psrnatl@psr.org
Visit our Web site!http://www.psr.org
For More Information . . .
Our thanks tothe W. Alton Jones Foundation, Inc.
for making this presentation possible.
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