christchurch transportation planning post feb 2011 earthquake
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Christchurch Transportation Planning Post Feb 2011 Earthquake
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Presented by Andrew Metherell
Contents
Introduction Land Use
Available Data Estimating Changes
Modelling The CTM Application and Results
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Where is Christchurch?
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Christchurch Statistics
Population: 415,000 Households: 150,000 Total Area: 1,425 km2
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
The Earthquakes
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
~1,200 road surface defects >50,000 road surface defects
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
The Effects
Roads closed, CBD shut Households, business, schools
and shops re-located Traffic increases on key routes Increased travel time Reduced trip reliability
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
The Responses
“Get Christchurch Moving” – Emergency Response “Keep Christchurch Moving” Review of Forward Capital Works Programme
Utilise Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
The Model
Land use based, various forecast years Person-based travel Strategic network representation Wide geographic area Daily travel calculations
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Christchurch Transportation Model
Land Use Data
Results
Network Data
Policy Assumptions
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Modelling Plan Immediate effects covered by emergency response
6 month post EQ (2011) Compare pre and post EQ travel demand changes Confirm observed change in travel patterns
5 years hence, 2016 various rates of recovery to CBD Identify recovery travel demand changes Test forward work programme effects
Long term, 2026 and 2041, assume full recovery (for now)
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Land Use – Available Data
Post Redirections
Residential “stickers” (red/yellow/green)
Local knowledge Transport planners Real estate experts
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Household Postal Redirections
As of 12 April 2011 64% redirects
remain with City
• FROM• TO
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Net Postal Redirections
3,700 redirects from (red)
2,400 redirects to (green)
Excludes PO boxes
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“Stickers”/Placards
What do the three colours mean? RED – Do not enter a red placarded building
because it is unsafe YELLOW – Buildings suitable for restricted access
until issues are resolved GREEN – Building accessed and no structural
hazards apparent
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Residential “Sticker” Status Red or yellow stickers 5,750 households “lost”
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Land Use – Estimating Changes
Determine overall net loss (pop/HHs) Determine geographic distribution
Reductions But increases in some areas
With CBD closed, where will business (& jobs) be?
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Net Loss – Population / HHs
Population loss 10,000 Christchurch
Estimate household reduction from population (2.6 ppl/hh)
3,800 less households
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Geographic Distribution
Household loss areas Residential sticker status Postal redirection
Vacant residential land Where will people move to? Zoned “vacant” residential land Some in damaged areas
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CBD Job Loss
Main job loss in CBD Unemployment likely
to rise (so fewer jobs overall)
Pre-quake 55,900 Post-quake 30,900
CBD Fringe-50%*
Pre=8,100Post=4,900
CBD Outer-10%
Pre=25,100Post=24,400
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Job changes around the city
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AIRPORTAIRPORT
CBDCBD
PORTPORT
Existing Major Business Areas
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Roads of National Significance
Modelling – Scenarios EvaluatedLA
ND
US
E
2011 2016 Onwards
Pre Post Initial RoNS Full RoNS
Pre
Post
2011
Post
Pre2016
Pre2026
Pre2041
4 Stage Model Run
Assignment only, fixed demands
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Forecast Post-Quake Changes
2011 Daily DemandINCREASE
DECREASE
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Future Network Implementation – Initial RoNS 2016 Daily Demand
Change with Initial Road of National Significance (CSM1 and Western Corridor)
INCREASEDECREASE
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Initial RoNS – Congestion Relief
Land use: 2016 Post-QuakeNetwork: 2011 Post-Quake
Land use: 2016 Post-QuakeNetwork: 2011 Initial RoNS
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
Outcomes
CTM useful in post earthquake planning
Traffic forecasts consistent with post quake counts
Able to demonstrate initial RoNs required
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Acknowledgements
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Questions?
Oceania Cube User Conference 2011
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