chelsey clarke - in · all 5 individuals obtain a medical recommendation to grow 99 plants • now...

Chelsey Clarke

Strategic Intelligence Analyst

Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (RMHIDTA)

Outline

Drug Policy 101

Arguments For and Against Legalization

Marijuana Impact: Collateral Damages

Has the “War” on Drugs Been

a Failure?

Drug Policy 101

• Purpose of Drug Policy• Limit the number of people using drugs

• Victims of crime1. User2. Family/Friends3. Victim of Crime4. Taxpayers

Marijuana Related Deaths

Levy Thamba Pongi(Denver, CO)

Luke Goodman (Keystone, CO)

SOURCE: Open Source

Kristine Kirk(Denver, CO)

What are the factors that affect the rate of drug use?

1. Price2. Availability3. Perception of Risk4. Public Attitude

What is success?

2013 and 2014 National Survey on Drug Use

• Americans age 12 and older (past month):

10% used illegal drugs

25% used tobacco

52% used alcohol

SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014

Alcohol and Tobacco

Heroin, Meth, Crack, Hallucinogens,

Cocaine, Tranquilizers, Pain Relievers and

Marijuana

HelloG

Eliminate arrests for possession and sale

Free up law enforcement resources

Reduce traffic fatalities

No increase in use, even among youth

Added revenue generated through taxation

Reduce profits for the drug cartels trafficking marijuana

Increases in:

Marijuana related traffic fatalities

Use among youth and adults

People in drug treatment

Diversion for unintended purposes

Impacts and costs for public health and safety

Impact

What Does the Data Say?

Comparison Dates 2006 – 2008: Early Medical Marijuana Era

1,000 – 4,800 cardholders and 0 known dispensaries

2009 – 2012: Medical Marijuana Commercialization and Expansion Era 108,000 cardholders and 532 licensed

dispensaries

2013 – Present: Medical MarijuanaCommercialization and Recreational Marijuana Era

535 554 548

465 450 447 472 481 488

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

Total Number of Statewide Traffic Deaths

Commercialization Legalization

SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)

Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana

37 3943

47 49

63

7871

94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber o

f Fat

aliti

es

Commercialization

Legalization

SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Commercialization

Legalization

Total Traffic Deaths vs Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana

SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA

Operators Positive for Marijuana

Marijuana ONLY33%

Marijuana and Other Drugs (No Alcohol)

15%

Marijuana and Alcohol

37%

Marijuana, Other Drugs and Alcohol

15%

SOURCE: Colorado Department of Transportation/RMHIDTA 2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

DUIDs Marijuana Only DUIDs InvolvingMarijuana

Total Number of DUIDs

347

665

862

Num

ber o

f DU

IDs

Number of DUIDs, 2015

SOURCE: Colorado State Patrol

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

2013 2014 2015

55%

60%

63%

Perc

ent P

ositi

vePercent of DUIDs Involving

Marijuana

SOURCE: Larimer County Sherriff ’s Office

Marijuana Use in Youth

Youth (12-17 yrs)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014

Colorado average for youth = 12.56 percent National average for youth = 7.22 percent

Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among youth 74 percent higher than the national average

Colorado youth use increased 20 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally youth use declined 4 percent

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014

Colorado Average

National Average

Legalized Recreational/Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)Non-Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014

Past Month Usage by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014

Average Past Month Use by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Non-Medical MarijuanaStates

Medical MarijuanaStates

Recreational/MedicalMarijuana States

5.99%

8.52%

11.31%

Ave

rage

Per

cent

Colorado Average Past Month Use of Marijuana Ages 12 to 17 Years

SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

2006-2008(Pre-Commercialization)

2009-2012(Post-Commercialization)

2013/2014 (Legalization)

8.64%

10.37%

12.56%

Ave

rage

Per

cent

20% Increase

21% Increase

Percent of Total Suspensions in Colorado, 2004-2014

3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1

4.45.0 5.1

5.4

6.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al S

uspe

nsio

ns

DrugViolations

AlcoholViolations

Legalization

Commercialization

SOURCE: Colorado Department of Education

Predominant Marijuana Violations

SOURCE: Colorado Association School Resource Officers (CASRO) and RMHIDTA, 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Student inpossession of

marijuanainfused edibles

Student sharingmarijuana withother students

Student sellingmarijuana to

other students

Student underthe influenceduring school

hours

Student inpossession of

marijuana

1% 2% 4%

42%

51%

Perc

ent o

f Res

pons

es

Student Marijuana Source

SOURCE: Colorado School Counselor Association (CSCA) and RMHIDTA, 2015

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

MedicalMarijuana

Cardholders

MedicalMarijuanaCaregivers

MedicalMarijuana

Dispensaries

RetailMarijuana

Stores

Black Market Parents Siblings/OtherFamily

Members

Friend whoobtained it

legally

1% 1%2% 3%

18%

21%

25%

29%

Perc

ent o

f Res

pons

es

College-Age Marijuana Use

Colorado average = 31.24 percent National average = 19.32 percent

Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among college-age adults 62 percent higher than the national average

Colorado college age use increased 17 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally there was a 2 percent increase

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014

College-Age Adults (18-25yr)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014

College Age, 18 to 25 Years-Old, Past Month Marijuana Use

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14National Average 16.42 16.34 16.45 17.42 18.39 18.78 18.89 18.91 19.32Colorado Average 21.43 22.21 23.44 24.28 26.35 27.26 26.81 29.05 31.24

Ave

rage

Per

cent

age

Annual Averages of Data Collection

CommercializationLegalization

Adult Marijuana Use

Adults (26+ yrs)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014

Colorado average = 12.45 percent National average = 6.11 percent

Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among adults 104 percent higher than the national average

Adult use increased 63 percent compared to pre-legalization years 2011/2012 Nationally an increase of 21 percent

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014

SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014

Adult, Ages 26+,Past Month Marijuana Use

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14National Average 4.1 4.02 4.06 4.42 4.68 4.8 5.05 5.45 6.11Colorado Average 5.32 5.88 6.88 7.31 8.86 8.19 7.63 10.13 12.45

Ave

rage

Per

cent

age

Annual Averages of Data Collection

Commercialization

Legalization

Emergency Room Visits and Hospitalizations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014

313 358

443

554

Rat

es P

er 1

00,0

00

Legalization

13% Increase

25% Increase

19% Increase

SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment

Colorado Emergency Department Rates Likely Related to Marijuana

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

267 236

290 255

330 340 387

438

524

Rat

es P

er 1

00,0

00

Legalization

Commercialization

SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment

Colorado Hospitalization Rates Likely Related to Marijuana

Marijuana and Poison Control Cases

Adolescents, Ages 6 to 17, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures

SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006-2008Pre-Commercialization

2009-2012Post-Commercialization

2013-2015Legalization

15

25

53

Ave

rage

Num

ber

67% Increase

112% Increase

Children, Ages 0 to 5, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures

SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006-2008Pre-Commercialization

2009-2012Post-Commercialization

2013-2015Legalization

4

13

35

Ave

rage

Num

ber

225% Increase

169% Increase

Diversion by Highway

Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Incidents)

SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System

54 41 57 5892

281

321

274 288

360 *358

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber o

f Sei

zure

s

Commercialization

Legalization

SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2005-2008Pre-Commercialization

2009-2015Post-Commercialization

2,763

*3,506

Ave

rage

Num

ber o

f Pou

nds

27% Increase

Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Pounds)

Colorado Marijuana Destination States (*2015)(Total Reported Incidents Per State)

SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System *38 interdictions, destination: UNKNOWN

Diversion by Postal

Parcels Containing Marijuana from CO Destined for Another State

SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0 15 36

158207

320

581

Num

ber o

f Par

cels Legalization

Commercialization

Pounds of CO Marijuana Seized

SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0 57.20 68.20

262.00

493.05 469.91

1,246.00

Num

ber o

f Pou

nds

Commercialization

Legalization

Colorado Marijuana Destined for Other Countries (2014)

SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection

CO Marijuana Parcels Destined for Outside the Continental U.S.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006-2008Pre-Commercialization

2009-2012Post-Commercialization

2013-2014Legalization

8

72

210

Ave

rage

Num

ber o

f Sei

zure

s

192% Increase

800%Increase

SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection

Live Resin Wax $60/g

SOURCE: Mindful

THC Extraction Labs

SOURCE: RMHIDTA Investigative Support Center

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

20 0 0

12

32

Num

ber o

f Exp

losi

ons

Explosions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

30 0 0

18

30

Num

ber o

f Inj

urie

s

Injuries

Collateral Damages

Chemicals Electrical/Water Federal lands Money laundering Prostitution Transients Home grows

SOURCE: RMHIDTA

SOURCE: DEA

Home Grows

If 8,200 patients each grow 50 plants = 410,000 marijuana plants

*The state-licensed medical/recreational industry currently has 758,000 plants in its inventory tracking system

As of January 2016:• 107,798 medical marijuana patients

• 8,210 patients with recommendations for 50-99 plants (8% of all patients)

SOURCE: DEA

If 8,200 patients harvest one pound per plant every 90 days = 1,640,000 pounds of marijuana per year

Scenario 1

SOURCE: DEA

Scenario 2• 5 people from FL move to CO and rent 3 houses• All 5 individuals obtain a medical recommendation to

grow 99 plants • Now they can “legally” grow up to 495 plants

At least 1 lb per plant per cycle • 495 lbs every 90 days = 1,980 lbs per year

CO = $2,000 per lb $3.9 million per year

East Coast = $4,000 per lb$7.9 million per year

SOURCE: DEA

All Reported Crimes in Denver

Source: National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) definitions in the City and County of Denver, January 9, 2015

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

2013 2014 2015

55,115

61,276

63,816

4% Increase

11%Increase

CO’s Total General Fund Revenue, FY 2015

Marijuana Tax Revenue= 0.7%(Medical and Recreational)

SOURCE: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, June 2015 Forecast (eleven months of data)

SOURCE: Open Source

SOURCE: Open Source

SOURCE: Open Source

Remember

SOURCE: Open Source

Topic StatusPublic Safety

Fatal Accidents

Impaired Driving Incidents

Youth (12 – 17 yrs)Past Month Use

Suspension/Expulsion

SOURCE: RMHIDTA

Topic Status

College Age (18 -25 yrs)

Past Month Use

Adults (26+ yrs)

Past Month Use

SOURCE: RMHIDTA

Topic StatusPublic Health Impact

Emergency Room Admissions

Exposures

Exposures 0-5 yr olds

SOURCE: RMHIDTA

Topic Status

THC Extraction Labs

Explosions

Injuries

Criminal Activity

Diversion by Motor Vehicle

Diversion by Parcel

SOURCE: RMHIDTA

To get a copy of theentire report:

www.rmhidta.org

“Reports” Tab

Chelsey Clarkecclarke@rmhidta.org

303-671-2180