chelsey clarke - in · all 5 individuals obtain a medical recommendation to grow 99 plants • now...
TRANSCRIPT
Chelsey Clarke
Strategic Intelligence Analyst
Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (RMHIDTA)
Outline
Drug Policy 101
Arguments For and Against Legalization
Marijuana Impact: Collateral Damages
Has the “War” on Drugs Been
a Failure?
Drug Policy 101
• Purpose of Drug Policy• Limit the number of people using drugs
• Victims of crime1. User2. Family/Friends3. Victim of Crime4. Taxpayers
Marijuana Related Deaths
Levy Thamba Pongi(Denver, CO)
Luke Goodman (Keystone, CO)
SOURCE: Open Source
Kristine Kirk(Denver, CO)
What are the factors that affect the rate of drug use?
1. Price2. Availability3. Perception of Risk4. Public Attitude
What is success?
2013 and 2014 National Survey on Drug Use
• Americans age 12 and older (past month):
10% used illegal drugs
25% used tobacco
52% used alcohol
SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014
Alcohol and Tobacco
Heroin, Meth, Crack, Hallucinogens,
Cocaine, Tranquilizers, Pain Relievers and
Marijuana
HelloG
Eliminate arrests for possession and sale
Free up law enforcement resources
Reduce traffic fatalities
No increase in use, even among youth
Added revenue generated through taxation
Reduce profits for the drug cartels trafficking marijuana
Increases in:
Marijuana related traffic fatalities
Use among youth and adults
People in drug treatment
Diversion for unintended purposes
Impacts and costs for public health and safety
Impact
What Does the Data Say?
Comparison Dates 2006 – 2008: Early Medical Marijuana Era
1,000 – 4,800 cardholders and 0 known dispensaries
2009 – 2012: Medical Marijuana Commercialization and Expansion Era 108,000 cardholders and 532 licensed
dispensaries
2013 – Present: Medical MarijuanaCommercialization and Recreational Marijuana Era
535 554 548
465 450 447 472 481 488
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
Total Number of Statewide Traffic Deaths
Commercialization Legalization
SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)
Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana
37 3943
47 49
63
7871
94
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Num
ber o
f Fat
aliti
es
Commercialization
Legalization
SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Commercialization
Legalization
Total Traffic Deaths vs Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana
SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA
Operators Positive for Marijuana
Marijuana ONLY33%
Marijuana and Other Drugs (No Alcohol)
15%
Marijuana and Alcohol
37%
Marijuana, Other Drugs and Alcohol
15%
SOURCE: Colorado Department of Transportation/RMHIDTA 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
DUIDs Marijuana Only DUIDs InvolvingMarijuana
Total Number of DUIDs
347
665
862
Num
ber o
f DU
IDs
Number of DUIDs, 2015
SOURCE: Colorado State Patrol
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
2013 2014 2015
55%
60%
63%
Perc
ent P
ositi
vePercent of DUIDs Involving
Marijuana
SOURCE: Larimer County Sherriff ’s Office
Marijuana Use in Youth
Youth (12-17 yrs)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014
Colorado average for youth = 12.56 percent National average for youth = 7.22 percent
Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among youth 74 percent higher than the national average
Colorado youth use increased 20 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally youth use declined 4 percent
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014
Colorado Average
National Average
Legalized Recreational/Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)Non-Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014)
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014
Past Month Usage by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014
Average Past Month Use by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Non-Medical MarijuanaStates
Medical MarijuanaStates
Recreational/MedicalMarijuana States
5.99%
8.52%
11.31%
Ave
rage
Per
cent
Colorado Average Past Month Use of Marijuana Ages 12 to 17 Years
SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
2006-2008(Pre-Commercialization)
2009-2012(Post-Commercialization)
2013/2014 (Legalization)
8.64%
10.37%
12.56%
Ave
rage
Per
cent
20% Increase
21% Increase
Percent of Total Suspensions in Colorado, 2004-2014
3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1
4.45.0 5.1
5.4
6.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al S
uspe
nsio
ns
DrugViolations
AlcoholViolations
Legalization
Commercialization
SOURCE: Colorado Department of Education
Predominant Marijuana Violations
SOURCE: Colorado Association School Resource Officers (CASRO) and RMHIDTA, 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Student inpossession of
marijuanainfused edibles
Student sharingmarijuana withother students
Student sellingmarijuana to
other students
Student underthe influenceduring school
hours
Student inpossession of
marijuana
1% 2% 4%
42%
51%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pons
es
Student Marijuana Source
SOURCE: Colorado School Counselor Association (CSCA) and RMHIDTA, 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
MedicalMarijuana
Cardholders
MedicalMarijuanaCaregivers
MedicalMarijuana
Dispensaries
RetailMarijuana
Stores
Black Market Parents Siblings/OtherFamily
Members
Friend whoobtained it
legally
1% 1%2% 3%
18%
21%
25%
29%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pons
es
College-Age Marijuana Use
Colorado average = 31.24 percent National average = 19.32 percent
Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among college-age adults 62 percent higher than the national average
Colorado college age use increased 17 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally there was a 2 percent increase
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014
College-Age Adults (18-25yr)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014
College Age, 18 to 25 Years-Old, Past Month Marijuana Use
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14National Average 16.42 16.34 16.45 17.42 18.39 18.78 18.89 18.91 19.32Colorado Average 21.43 22.21 23.44 24.28 26.35 27.26 26.81 29.05 31.24
Ave
rage
Per
cent
age
Annual Averages of Data Collection
CommercializationLegalization
Adult Marijuana Use
Adults (26+ yrs)Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014
Colorado average = 12.45 percent National average = 6.11 percent
Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among adults 104 percent higher than the national average
Adult use increased 63 percent compared to pre-legalization years 2011/2012 Nationally an increase of 21 percent
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
Adult, Ages 26+,Past Month Marijuana Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14National Average 4.1 4.02 4.06 4.42 4.68 4.8 5.05 5.45 6.11Colorado Average 5.32 5.88 6.88 7.31 8.86 8.19 7.63 10.13 12.45
Ave
rage
Per
cent
age
Annual Averages of Data Collection
Commercialization
Legalization
Emergency Room Visits and Hospitalizations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014
313 358
443
554
Rat
es P
er 1
00,0
00
Legalization
13% Increase
25% Increase
19% Increase
SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
Colorado Emergency Department Rates Likely Related to Marijuana
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
267 236
290 255
330 340 387
438
524
Rat
es P
er 1
00,0
00
Legalization
Commercialization
SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
Colorado Hospitalization Rates Likely Related to Marijuana
Marijuana and Poison Control Cases
Adolescents, Ages 6 to 17, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures
SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006-2008Pre-Commercialization
2009-2012Post-Commercialization
2013-2015Legalization
15
25
53
Ave
rage
Num
ber
67% Increase
112% Increase
Children, Ages 0 to 5, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures
SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006-2008Pre-Commercialization
2009-2012Post-Commercialization
2013-2015Legalization
4
13
35
Ave
rage
Num
ber
225% Increase
169% Increase
Diversion by Highway
Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Incidents)
SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System
54 41 57 5892
281
321
274 288
360 *358
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Num
ber o
f Sei
zure
s
Commercialization
Legalization
SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005-2008Pre-Commercialization
2009-2015Post-Commercialization
2,763
*3,506
Ave
rage
Num
ber o
f Pou
nds
27% Increase
Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Pounds)
Colorado Marijuana Destination States (*2015)(Total Reported Incidents Per State)
SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System *38 interdictions, destination: UNKNOWN
Diversion by Postal
Parcels Containing Marijuana from CO Destined for Another State
SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0 15 36
158207
320
581
Num
ber o
f Par
cels Legalization
Commercialization
Pounds of CO Marijuana Seized
SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0 57.20 68.20
262.00
493.05 469.91
1,246.00
Num
ber o
f Pou
nds
Commercialization
Legalization
Colorado Marijuana Destined for Other Countries (2014)
SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection
CO Marijuana Parcels Destined for Outside the Continental U.S.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006-2008Pre-Commercialization
2009-2012Post-Commercialization
2013-2014Legalization
8
72
210
Ave
rage
Num
ber o
f Sei
zure
s
192% Increase
800%Increase
SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection
Live Resin Wax $60/g
SOURCE: Mindful
THC Extraction Labs
SOURCE: RMHIDTA Investigative Support Center
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20 0 0
12
32
Num
ber o
f Exp
losi
ons
Explosions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
30 0 0
18
30
Num
ber o
f Inj
urie
s
Injuries
Collateral Damages
Chemicals Electrical/Water Federal lands Money laundering Prostitution Transients Home grows
SOURCE: RMHIDTA
SOURCE: DEA
Home Grows
If 8,200 patients each grow 50 plants = 410,000 marijuana plants
*The state-licensed medical/recreational industry currently has 758,000 plants in its inventory tracking system
As of January 2016:• 107,798 medical marijuana patients
• 8,210 patients with recommendations for 50-99 plants (8% of all patients)
SOURCE: DEA
If 8,200 patients harvest one pound per plant every 90 days = 1,640,000 pounds of marijuana per year
Scenario 1
SOURCE: DEA
Scenario 2• 5 people from FL move to CO and rent 3 houses• All 5 individuals obtain a medical recommendation to
grow 99 plants • Now they can “legally” grow up to 495 plants
At least 1 lb per plant per cycle • 495 lbs every 90 days = 1,980 lbs per year
CO = $2,000 per lb $3.9 million per year
East Coast = $4,000 per lb$7.9 million per year
SOURCE: DEA
All Reported Crimes in Denver
Source: National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) definitions in the City and County of Denver, January 9, 2015
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
2013 2014 2015
55,115
61,276
63,816
4% Increase
11%Increase
CO’s Total General Fund Revenue, FY 2015
Marijuana Tax Revenue= 0.7%(Medical and Recreational)
SOURCE: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, June 2015 Forecast (eleven months of data)
SOURCE: Open Source
SOURCE: Open Source
SOURCE: Open Source
Remember
SOURCE: Open Source
Topic StatusPublic Safety
Fatal Accidents
Impaired Driving Incidents
Youth (12 – 17 yrs)Past Month Use
Suspension/Expulsion
SOURCE: RMHIDTA
Topic Status
College Age (18 -25 yrs)
Past Month Use
Adults (26+ yrs)
Past Month Use
SOURCE: RMHIDTA
Topic StatusPublic Health Impact
Emergency Room Admissions
Exposures
Exposures 0-5 yr olds
SOURCE: RMHIDTA
Topic Status
THC Extraction Labs
Explosions
Injuries
Criminal Activity
Diversion by Motor Vehicle
Diversion by Parcel
SOURCE: RMHIDTA
To get a copy of theentire report:
www.rmhidta.org
“Reports” Tab
Chelsey [email protected]
303-671-2180