chapter 6 every macroeconomic word you ever heard: gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment,...

Chapter 6Every Macroeconomic Word You Ever Heard:

Gross Domestic Product, Inflation,

Unemployment, Recession, and

Depression

Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin

6-2

Chapter Outline

• Measuring the Economy• Real Gross Domestic Product

and Why it is Not Synonymous with Social Welfare

• Measuring and Describing Unemployment

• Business Cycles

6-3

You Are Here

6-4

Microeconomics vs. Macroeconomics

• Microeconomics: that part of the discipline of economics that deals with individual markets and firms

• Macroeconomics: that part of the discipline of economics that deals with the economy as a whole

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Gross Domestic Product

• Gross Domestic Product: the dollar value of all of the goods and services produced for final sale in the United States in a year– “Final Sale” avoids double counting of

intermediate production– “Sale” implies exclusively market activities– “produced..in the United States” implies

that Hondas produced in the US count but Fords produced in Mexico do not.

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Measuring Prices

• Market Basket: what average people buy and in what quantities they buy it

• Base Year: year in which the market basket is established and year to which all other prices are compared

• Price of the Market Basket in the Base Year: (PBY

MB) national average of the total cost of the market basket for the first month in the first year.

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Price Index• Price Index: a device that centers the

price of the market basket around 100• Consumer Price Index: the price index

based on what average consumers buy

1001998ofYearBasetheinBasketMarkettheofPrice

2008inBasketMarkettheofPrice2008inCPI x

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Measuring Inflation

• Inflation Rate: the percentage increase in the consumer price index

%10020081,JanuaryonCPI

20081,JanuaryonCPI20091,JanuaryonCPI2008duringInflation x

6-9

Problems Measuring Inflation

• Changes in the Market Basket occur every two years which is too infrequent for some goods (like consumer electronics).

• The treatment of improvements in the quality of goods is inadequate.

• People change the places they buy frequently.

• No accounting for substitutions

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Bureau of Labor Statistics Adjustments

• The BLS is dealing with– Consumer electronics issues by pricing

an index of quality rather than a specific item.

– The “infrequent updates problem” by moving to a two-year chain-based index, a price index that is based on an biannually adjusted market basket.

• The CPI still overstates the cost-of-living by 0.8%.

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Alternative Measures of Inflation

• Core CPI: The consumer price index that has had the impact of food and energy costs removed.

• Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator: A chain-based price index that adjusts for the substitution problem.

• Core PCE: The Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator that has had the impact of food and energy costs removed.

• Producer Price Index: A price index based on what firms buy.

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Alternative Measures of Inflation

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The CPI and Inflation in Selected Year Base Years

(1982-1984)Year CPI Inflation Rate

1930 16.1

1950 25.0

1970 39.8

1990 133.8 6.1

1995 153.5 2.5

2000 174.0 3.4

2005 196.8 3.4

2006 201.8 2.5

2007 210.0 4.1

2008 210.2 0.1

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Cost of Living Adjustments

• Cost of Living Adjustment or COLA: a device that compensates people for the fact that inflation makes the spending power of their income less

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Inflation’s Winners and Losers

•Losers– People on fixed incomes– Lenders

•Winners– Borrowers

6-16

Interest and Expected Inflation

• If inflation exceeds expectations then borrowers win and lenders lose

• If inflation is less expectations then borrowers lose and lenders win

6-17

Real Gross Domestic Product

• Real Gross Domestic Product: an inflation adjusted measure of GDP

• GDP Deflator: the price index used to adjust GDP for inflation, including all goods rather than a market basketRGDP= *100

GDP

GDP Deflator

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Post WWII RGDP 2000 in billions

6-19

Problems With RGDP

• GDP only counts market sales so it ignores home production.

• GDP ignores the value of leisure• GDP ignores the composition of output• GDP should be a per capita measure• GDP ignores environmental measures• GDP ignores the “underground

economy”

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Measuring Unemployment

• Work Force: all those non-military personnel who are over 16 and are employed or are unemployed and actively seeking employment

• Unemployment Rate: the percentage of people in the work force who do not have jobs and are actively seeking them

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Problems Measuring Unemployment

• Underemployed : the state of working significantly below skill level or working fewer hours than desired

• Discouraged worker effect: when bad news induces people to stop looking for work causing the unemployment rate to fall

• Encouraged worker effect: when good news induces people to start looking for work causing the unemployment rate to rise (until they succeed in finding work)

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Annual Unemployment Rates

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Types of Unemployment• Cyclically Unemployed: people lose their jobs

because of a temporary downturn in the economy

• Seasonally Unemployed: (a subset of the cyclically unemployed) people who lose their jobs predictably every year at the same time

• Structurally Unemployed : people who lose their jobs because of a change in the economy that makes their particular skill obsolete

• Frictionally Unemployed: people who are unemployed for a short time in the transition to an equal or better job

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The Business Cycle• Business Cycle: regular pattern of ups and downs

in the economy• Trough: the lowest point in the business cycle• Recovery: the part of the growth period of the

business cycle from the trough to the previous peak

• Expansion: the part of the growth period of the business cycle from the previous peak to the new peak

• Peak: the highest point in the business cycle• Recession: the declining period of at least two

consecutive quarters in the business cycle

6-25

The Business Cycle

RGDP

time

Trough

Peak

Recession

Recovery

Expansion

Peak

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The Business Cycle 1981 to 2009

6-27

If Inflation is Bad How can Deflation be Worse?

With deflation• People delay buying big ticket items when they

are certain it will be cheaper if they are patient.• If they delay buying

– then demand for those goods will fall. – firms will cut costs by cutting wages and

benefits, or by laying people off. – when profits decline, the value of stocks decline.

With less wealth, stockholders spend less on consumer goods.

– housing prices may decline. Purchases that are made using home equity decline.

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Depression

• Depression: There is no generally accepted standard but most are characterized by a severe recession that results in a financial panic and bank closures, unemployment rates exceeding 20%, prolonged retrenchment in RGDP on the magnitude of ten percent or more, and significant deflation.

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Kick It Up A Notch:

RGDP Accounting

6-30

Alternative Approaches to GDP Calculations

Expenditures Approach Amount Income Approach Amount

Personal Consumption $9,710.2 Employee Compensation

$7,819.4

Gross Private Investment $2,130.4 All Profits $3,386.0

Government Consumption and Investment Expenditures

$2,674.8 Net Property Income $109.4

Net Exports -$707.8 Indirect Business Taxes $1,105.5

Depreciation $1,720.5

Minus Income Earned Abroad

-$102.4

Statistical Discrepancy $81.4

Gross Domestic Product $13,807.6 Gross Domestic Product

$13,807.6