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Predicting the MarketsChapter 16 Charts:
Predicting the FutureYardeni Research, Inc.
February 1, 2021
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
info@yardenibook.com
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting the Future 1-23
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670
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CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale) 2/1
* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22165
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yardeni.com
Source: MSCI.
ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX(ratio scale)
Local currency
US$
Figure 2.
Predicting the Future
Page 1 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
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* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and IMF.
ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency)(analysts’ average forecasts)
Consensus ForecastsForward Revenues*
World Exports: Value(trillion dollars, sa, 12-month sum)
Figure 3.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: PTMMSCIWLTRN1_BB-LOCAL
Invalid calculation element [CY]
02-01-2021 - 01:57:36
Figure 4.
Predicting the Future
Page 2 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
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WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME(2010=100, sa, ratio scale)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
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WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME(yearly percent change)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
Predicting the Future
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
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WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD(percent of total world exports using 12-month averages)
Rest of WorldG7
Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
2016 2017 2018 2019 202030
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58PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES
Composite IndexManufacturingNon-Manufacturing
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Emerging Economies
Figure 8.
Predicting the Future
Page 4 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$)(analysts’ average forecasts)
Forward revenues*
Emerging Markets: Value of Exports**(trillion dollars, sa)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year.** Value of global exports minus value of G7 exports.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and IMF.
Figure 9.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: PTMMSCIEMGLTRN1_BB-LOCAL
Invalid calculation element [CY]
02-01-2021 - 01:57:34
Figure 10.
Predicting the Future
Page 5 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0
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5.5WORLD: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 002
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12WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(billions)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Predicting the Future
Page 6 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
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50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0
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2.5WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(yearly percent change)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5025
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70WORLD: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2050)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 14.
Predicting the Future
Page 7 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00-1
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2
-1
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2JAPAN: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS (yearly percent change)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0
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3.0JAPAN: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Predicting the Future
Page 8 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440000
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JAPAN: MARRIAGES(cases, 12-month average)
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
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JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS(12-month sum, millions)
Live BirthsDeaths
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Predicting the Future
Page 9 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 0030
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100JAPAN: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 19.
55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 990
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14JAPAN: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
Predicting the Future
Page 10 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0
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OCP
TCP
CHINA: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Note: OCP = China officially adopts one-child policy in 1979. TCP = China officially adopts two-child policy in 2016.Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
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40
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80CHINA: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2050)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 22.
Predicting the Future
Page 11 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-20-15-10-505101520253035
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101520253035
2019
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-20-15-10-505101520253035
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2019
CHINA: URBAN POPULATION(yearly change, millions)
RURAL POPULATION
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 99.2
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1.2CHINA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 24.
Predicting the Future
Page 12 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 9950
55
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Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 25.
55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 990
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18CHINA: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Predicting the Future
Page 13 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0
1.5
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3.0EUROPE: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00325
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525EUROPE: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
yard
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Figure 28.
Predicting the Future
Page 14 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.5
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4.0UNITED STATES: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25.0
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CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE(120-month percent change, annual rate)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
Predicting the Future
Page 15 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0
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LATIN AMERICA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 31.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 0060
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110RUSSIAN FEDERATION: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 32.
Predicting the Future
Page 16 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.2
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1.2INDIA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 33.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 000
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AFRICA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.
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Figure 34.
Predicting the Future
Page 17 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20505
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20WORLD: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS(percent of country or regional population*)
AgeUnder 565 & Older
* Estimates through 2019, then projections through 2050.Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 992
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Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
Predicting the Future
Page 18 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(yearly percent change)
Emerging EconomiesAdvanced Economies
yardeni.com
Source: IMF.
Figure 37.
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: WORLD(yearly percent change)
yardeni.com
Source: IMF.
Figure 38.
Predicting the Future
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2490
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REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(indexed 1987=100, ratio scale)
Nonfarm BusinessManufacturingNonfinancial Corporations
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 39.
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2435
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Q3Q3REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
& NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY
Real Average Hourly Earnings*(dollars per hour)
NFB Productivity(2012=100)
* Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees divided by nonfarm business price deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
Predicting the Future
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221
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WAGE INFLATION & JOB OPENINGS
Small Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent)
Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)
* Production & nonsupervisory workersSource: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241
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WAGE INFLATION & JOBS HARD TO GET
Jobs Hard to Get(percent)
Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)
* Production & nonsupervisory workersSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
Predicting the Future
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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BITCOIN PRICE INDEX: US DOLLAR EXCHANGE VALUATION(US$/Bitcoin, closing price)
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Source: CoinDesk and Haver Analytics.
Figure 43.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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BITCOIN PRICE INDEX: US DOLLAR EXCHANGE VALUATION / GOLD CASH PRICE(ratio)
yardeni.com
Source: CoinDesk and Haver Analytics.
Figure 44.
Predicting the Future
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
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Jan
TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars)
BOJECBFed
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150
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MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS & MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
Total ofFed, ECB, BOJ(trillion dollars, nsa) (22.6)
All Country WorldMSCI Stock Price Index(dollars) (652.5)
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Predicting the Future
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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