chapter 16 charts: predicting the future · purchasing managers indexes: emerging economies...

Predicting the MarketsChapter 16 Charts:

Predicting the FutureYardeni Research, Inc.

February 1, 2021

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Predicting the Future 1-23

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670

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670

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale) 2/1

* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

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Figure 1.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22165

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715765815

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2/1

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Source: MSCI.

ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX(ratio scale)

Local currency

US$

Figure 2.

Predicting the Future

Page 1 / February 1, 2021 / Chapter 16 Charts: Predicting the Future www.yardeni.com


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226

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* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and IMF.

ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency)(analysts’ average forecasts)

Consensus ForecastsForward Revenues*

World Exports: Value(trillion dollars, sa, 12-month sum)

Figure 3.

***** Chart Not Available *****

Task: PTMMSCIWLTRN1_BB-LOCAL

Invalid calculation element [CY]

02-01-2021 - 01:57:36

Figure 4.




91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230

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Nov

WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME(2010=100, sa, ratio scale)

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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Figure 5.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

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Nov

WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME(yearly percent change)

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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Figure 6.




94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225

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Jul

Jul

WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD(percent of total world exports using 12-month averages)

Rest of WorldG7

Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 7.

2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

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58PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES

Composite IndexManufacturingNon-Manufacturing

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

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Emerging Economies

Figure 8.




95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$)(analysts’ average forecasts)

Forward revenues*

Emerging Markets: Value of Exports**(trillion dollars, sa)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year.** Value of global exports minus value of G7 exports.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and IMF.

Figure 9.

***** Chart Not Available *****

Task: PTMMSCIEMGLTRN1_BB-LOCAL

Invalid calculation element [CY]

02-01-2021 - 01:57:34

Figure 10.




1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0

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5.5WORLD: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)

Estimates (through 2019)

Projections (2020 through 2095)

Source: United Nations.

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Figure 11.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 002

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12WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(billions)




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Figure 12.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0

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2.0

2.5WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(yearly percent change)




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Figure 13.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5025

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70WORLD: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)




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Figure 14.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00-1

0

1

2

-1

0

1

2JAPAN: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS (yearly percent change)




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Figure 15.

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

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2.0

2.5

3.0JAPAN: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)




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Figure 16.




66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440000

60000

80000

100000

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60000

80000

100000

Aug

JAPAN: MARRIAGES(cases, 12-month average)

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

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Figure 17.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26.4

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Aug

JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS(12-month sum, millions)

Live BirthsDeaths

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

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Figure 18.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 0030

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100JAPAN: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)



* Persons 15-64 years old.Source: United Nations.

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Figure 19.

55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 990

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14JAPAN: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)




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Figure 20.




1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0

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OCP

TCP

CHINA: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)



Note: OCP = China officially adopts one-child policy in 1979. TCP = China officially adopts two-child policy in 2016.Source: United Nations.

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Figure 21.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500

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80CHINA: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)




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Figure 22.




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101520253035

2019

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-20-15-10-505101520253035

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101520253035

2019

CHINA: URBAN POPULATION(yearly change, millions)

RURAL POPULATION


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Figure 23.

55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 99.2

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1.2CHINA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)




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Figure 24.




55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 9950

55

60

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75

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80CHINA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION(as a percent of total population & projections)




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Figure 25.

55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 990

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18CHINA: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)




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Figure 26.




1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0

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3.0EUROPE: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)




yardeni.com

Figure 27.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00325

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525EUROPE: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)




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Figure 28.




1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.5

2.0

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4.0UNITED STATES: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)




yardeni.com

Figure 29.

57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25.0

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CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE(120-month percent change, annual rate)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 30.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0

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LATIN AMERICA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)




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Figure 31.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 0060

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110RUSSIAN FEDERATION: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(millions of persons)




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Figure 32.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.2

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1.2INDIA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)




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Figure 33.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 000

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AFRICA: WORKING-AGE POPULATION & PROJECTIONS*(billions of persons)




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Figure 34.




1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20505

10

15

20

5

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20WORLD: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS(percent of country or regional population*)

AgeUnder 565 & Older

* Estimates through 2019, then projections through 2050.Source: United Nations.

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Figure 35.

55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 03 09 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63 69 75 81 87 93 992

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14WORLD: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)




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Figure 36.




1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(yearly percent change)

Emerging EconomiesAdvanced Economies

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Source: IMF.

Figure 37.

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: WORLD(yearly percent change)

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Source: IMF.

Figure 38.




87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2490

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REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(indexed 1987=100, ratio scale)

Nonfarm BusinessManufacturingNonfinancial Corporations

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 39.

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2435

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Q3Q3REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS

& NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY

Real Average Hourly Earnings*(dollars per hour)

NFB Productivity(2012=100)

* Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees divided by nonfarm business price deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 40.




87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221

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Dec

WAGE INFLATION & JOB OPENINGS

Small Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent)

Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)

* Production & nonsupervisory workersSource: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 41.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241

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WAGE INFLATION & JOBS HARD TO GET

Jobs Hard to Get(percent)

Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)

* Production & nonsupervisory workersSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.




2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

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BITCOIN PRICE INDEX: US DOLLAR EXCHANGE VALUATION(US$/Bitcoin, closing price)

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Source: CoinDesk and Haver Analytics.

Figure 43.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

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BITCOIN PRICE INDEX: US DOLLAR EXCHANGE VALUATION / GOLD CASH PRICE(ratio)

yardeni.com

Source: CoinDesk and Haver Analytics.

Figure 44.




2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5

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TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars)

BOJECBFed

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150

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MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS & MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX

Total ofFed, ECB, BOJ(trillion dollars, nsa) (22.6)

All Country WorldMSCI Stock Price Index(dollars) (652.5)

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.




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chapter 16 charts: predicting the future · purchasing managers indexes: emerging economies...

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