changing demographics and workforce trends€¦ · changing demographics and workforce trends...

Changing Demographics

and Workforce TrendsStatewide Census Analysis

Phil Wheeler, AICP

Planning DirectorRochester Olmsted Planning

Department

2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Cities

City 2000 2010

Change 2000-2010

% Change 2000-2010

2010 Minority

Population%

Minority

Minneapolis city 382,747 382,578 -169 0.00% 151,928 39.70%

St. Paul city 286,840 285,068 -1,772 -0.60% 125,631 44.10%

Rochester city 85,806 106,769 20,963 24.40% 22,161 20.80%

Duluth city 86,319 86,265 -54 -0.10% 9,081 10.50%

Bloomington city 85,172 82,893 -2,279 -2.70% 18,919 22.80%

Brooklyn Park city 67,388 75,781 8,393 12.50% 37,833 49.90%

Plymouth city 65,894 70,576 4,682 7.10% 12,336 17.50%

St. Cloud city 59,111 65,842 6,731 11.40% 10,988 16.70%

Eagan city 63,557 64,206 649 1.00% 13,340 20.80%

Woodbury city 46,463 61,961 15,498 33.40% 12,945 20.90%

2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Counties

County 2000 2010

Change 2000-2010

% Change 2000-2010

2010 Minority

Population%

Minority

Hennepin County 1,116,039 1,152,425 36,386 3.30% 325,755 28.30%

Ramsey County 511,202 508,640 -2,562 -0.50% 168,446 33.10%

Dakota County 355,904 398,552 42,648 12.00% 70,590 17.70%

Anoka County 298,084 330,844 32,760 11.00% 48,915 14.80%

Washington County 201,130 238,136 37,006 18.40% 34,025 14.30%

St. Louis County 200,528 200,226 -302 -0.20% 15,457 7.70%

Stearns County 133,167 150,642 17,475 13.10% 14,228 9.40%

Olmsted County 124,277 144,248 19,971 16.10% 23,900 16.60%

Scott County 89,498 129,928 40,430 45.20% 20,112 15.50%

Wright County 89,993 124,700 34,707 38.60% 7,914 6.30%

Total

Population

by County

2010

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Minority

Percentage

by County

2010

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Total

Change in

Population

by County

201037 counties lost

population; 50 gained.

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Change in Majority & Minority

Population by County 2010

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Hispanic/Latino

Black (alone)

Asian

American Indian

Minority

Percentage

by County

2010

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Population

Change by

County 2010

lost populationWhite non-Hispanic 50Hispanic Latino 0Black – non Hispanic 4Asian – non Hispanic 10

American Indian – 34

gained populationWhite non-Hispanic 37Hispanic Latino 86Black – non Hispanic 83

Asian – non Hispanic 77American Indian – 53

Hispanic/Latino

Black alone

Asian alone

American Indian

Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/

Total

Enrollment

by County

2009-10Four Twin Cities metro

counties account for

45% of all enrollment.

The next three largest

counties in enrollment

(Washington, Sibley, and

Wright) account for 11%

of all students.

Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html

Total Low SES

Enrollment by

County

2009-10Four Twin Cities metro

counties account for 49%

of low SES enrollment.

The next four largest

counties in SES enrollment

(Sibley, Stearns, Olmsted,

and Washington) account

for 10% of low SES students.

Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html

Total Enrollment and Low SES* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10

*Defined as eligibility for free or reduced price meals.

Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html

Total Enrollment and LEP* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10

*Limited English proficiency.

Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html

Total 1st

Quarter

Employment

by County

2010Four Twin Cities metro

counties account for 56%

of all jobs.

The next three largest

counties in employment

(Olmsted, St. Louis, and

Stearns) account for 10%

of all jobs.

Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx

Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota – 2000 to 2010

Employment Sector 2010 2000 Change % Change

Total, All Industries (000000) 2,489,629 2,539,462 -49,833 -2.00%

Natural Resources and Mining (1011) 20,050 19,452 598 2.98%

Construction (1012) 77,987 106,138 -28,151 -36.10%

Manufacturing (1013) 283,941 390,345 -106,404 -37.47%

Trade, Transportation and Utilities (1021) 495,779 549,117 -53,338 -10.76%

Information (1022) 58,054 71,157 -13,103 -22.57%

Financial Activities (1023) 169,250 161,442 7,808 4.61%

Professional and Business Services (1024) 303,389 319,201 -15,812 -5.21%

Education and Health Services (1025) 644,238 506,016 138,222 21.46%

Leisure and Hospitality (1026) 235,845 221,452 14,393 6.10%

Other Services (1027) 81,052 86,787 -5,735 -7.08%

Public Administration (1028) 119,857 108,355 11,502 9.60%

Unclassified (1029) 182

Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx

• The total job loss for industries that lost

jobs was 220,000

– 120,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing

and information (both basic sector

industries)

• Losses were partly offset by gains of

138,000 in education and health care

(partly basic sector jobs)

Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota

Total

Employment

Change by

County

2000-2010Net loss of ~50,000 jobs

over the decade (1st

quarter 2000 to 1st

quarter 2010.)

47 counties lost jobs, 40

gained jobs.

Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx

Where Workers Live Who Work in Rochester Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)

Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

Where Workers Live Who Work in MinneapolisCensus LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)

Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75%of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

Where Workers Live Who Work in St. Louis County Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)

Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

2000 MN Population by Age and Sex

-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

Male

Female

Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167

Minnesota Population 2030

-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

0 to 4

10 to 14

20 to 24

30 to 34

40 to 44

50 to 54

60 to 64

70 to 74

80 to 84Male

Female

Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167

Population Change by Age2000 - 2030

Age

Group

2000

population

2030

population Change

%

Change

under 55 3,920,344 4,304,400 384,056 10%

55+ 999,135 1,964,000 964,865 97%

65+ 594,266 1,290,800 696,534 117%

75+ 298,441 602,100 303,659 102%

85+ 85,601 163,300 77,699 91%Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167

Minnesota 2000-2030 Change by Age

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,0000

to

4

5 t

o 9

10

to

14

15

to

19

20

to

24

25

to

29

30

to

34

35

to

39

40

to

44

45

to

49

50

to

54

55

to

59

60

to

64

65

to

69

70

to

74

75

to

79

80

to

84

85

+

Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167

Implications of Aging Boom

• The population over 65 years of age will increase by 117% from 2000 to 2030.

• In 2000, ~ 20% of the 65+ population had at least one disability. If this proportion stays constant, the population over 65 with a disability will increase from 119,000 to 260,000.

• The workforce will change dramatically as boomers retire.

Where will the workers come from?

• In-migration

• Commuting (minor at the state level)

• Transfer to service sector from other sectors, as with farming in the early 20th

century

• Not females – labor force participation increased from ~50% in 1970 to ~85% now.

Sources of Population Change

Components of Change 2000-2009 Minnesota

Births 654,294

Deaths 348,464

Natural Increase 305,830

International net migration 106,388

Domestic net migration -43,962

Total Net Migration 62,426

Counties with more deaths than births 25

Counties with more out- than in- migration 52

Counties with positive domestic net migration 34

Counties with positive international net migration 79

Source: Census Estimates, 2009; http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-04.html

Citizenship and Year of Entry for Foreign Born (Census ACS, 2005-9)

Source: Census American Community Survey 2005-9 Table B05005; http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/aff_transition.html

Foreign Born

Naturalized U.S. citizen

Not a U.S. citizen

% Citizens

Total 339,119 144,347 194,772 43%

Entered 2000 or later 124,771 16,804 107,967 13%

Entered 1990 to 1999 110,689 49,815 60,874 45%

Entered 1980 to 1989 55,674 38,330 17,344 69%

Entered before 1980 47,985 39,398 8,587 82%

Implications

• Most in-migrants are persons of color

and/or foreign-born; many foreign-born

immigrants will need training and language

skills.

• The number and proportion of low income

children, concentrated in single-parent

households, is rising. We will need to

improve on how we educate this group.

• Whatever compounding factors influence

minority low income students must be

addressed and remedied.