challenges for hawaii’s
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Copyright 2021
Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE
Challenges for Hawaii’s
Post-COVID Workforce
Webinar appendixes for
Hawaii Workforce
Development Council
by Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE
TZ Economics, Kailua, Hawaii
August 12, 2021
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Appendix 1: Hawaii’s official tourism strategy, Less Is More
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Challenges for the 2020s: real tourism receipts didn’t grow on Oahu
after 2012, stumble after natural disasters; HTA policy of less tourism
800
700
600
500
400
900
800
700
600
500
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Aloha Airlines
shutdown
Kilauea
East Rift
eruption*
U.S. recessions
shaded gray
Total tourism
receipts
declined after
inflation
Total tourism
receipts
declined after
inflation
Monthly, million constant 2019$, s.a. (log scale)
Oahu(left scale)
Neighbor Isles(right scale)
Sources: Hawaii Tourism Authority plan: “Reduce visitor impacts by…decreasing the level of visitors” (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf), U.S. BLS CPI-U retrieved from FRED,
FRB St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL), visitor expenditure from Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/); seasonal adjustment using Census X-13 ARIMA filter by TZE.
*May-August 2018 eruption on Kilauea volcano’s East Rift (flows to Kapoho) (https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/nature/2018-eruption.htm), preceded by Kauai flooding
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ncec/records and https://www.weather.gov/hfo/RecordKauaiandOahuRainfallAndFlooding-April2018).
Tohoku
seismic
event
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0
20
40
60
80
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Entire net increase in Hawaii’s visitor plant inventory for last 30 years
comprised vacation rentals—strategic decision: constrain capacity
Vacation rental
Hotel, condo hotel,
timeshare, apartment hotel,
B&B, hostels, other units
Thousand lodging units
Sources: Hawaii DBEDT, 2020 Visitor Plant Inventory (https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf) and prior issues
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0
10
20
30
40
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
10
20
30
40
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Hosting apps lower search + matching cost (demand), entry barriers
(supply), relieve de facto capacity constraint; ergo, “constrain VRs”
Sources: Hawaii DBEDT, 2020 Visitor Plant Inventory (https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf) and prior issues
VR
Hotel rooms, condo/hotel,
apt/hotel, timeshare units,
bed & breakfast, hostels
Hotel rooms, condo/hotel,
apt/hotel, timeshare units,
bed & breakfast, hostels
Vacation rentals
Thousand lodging units
Oahu Neighbor Islands combined
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Net of vacation rentals, Hawaii’s lodging capacity has declined for 30
years; visitor day growth enabled by VRs, yield management models
0
20
40
60
80
Thous. units
0
20
40
60
80
Mil. days
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Net of VR
SARS-CoV-2
Visitor Days (mil.)
Visitor Plant Inventory (thous.)
Gross
Days
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0
2
4
6
8
10 million
0
5
10
15
20 billion
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Real tourism
receipts (2020$)
(right scale)
Total visitor
arrivals
(left scale)
COVID-19
$18
10.2
Hawaii’s turn of the 21st century conundrum: “more visitors, not more
dollars”—velocity is increasing, but inflow of export receipts is not
WWII
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0
10
20
30
40
Thousand occupied jobs, n.s.a.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gulf
War9/11 Aloha Airlines
shutdownCOVID-19
Monthly payroll employment in the accommodation industry didn’t
change materially for 25 years; pre-Covid rise could have been VRs
c. 30k (June 2021)
Sources: Hawaii DLIR, Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/); seasonal adjustment using Census X-13 filter by TZE.
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Real tourism receipts flat since 1989, conditional volatility rising:
risk-adjusted return decreasing (sitting duck for Black Swans)
.0
.1
.2
.30
5
10
15
20
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Real tourism
receipts (2020$)
(right scale)
Conditional volatility
(left scale)
Arrivals
Receipts (n.a. 2020)
Gulf
War
9/11
Aloha Airlines
shutdown
COVID-19
Pre-
war
WWII
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Scheduled air seats to return to post-Aloha Airlines trend, but HTA* now
proposes “decreasing the level of visitors” and [hotspot] “capacity limits”
Million scheduled seats, s.a. (logs)
4.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2022
Sources: Hawaii Tourism Authority (https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/research/infrastructure-research/#air-seats), Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/air-seats/).
Aloha Airlines
shutdown
COVID-19
U.S. recessions shaded
*Hawaii Tourism Authority (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf)
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Just to be clear about the first action proposed in the HTA Oahu
Destination Management Plan*: passenger arrivals should decrease
Monthly, thousand Hawaii arriving air passengers, s.a. (log scale)
1,000
700
500
300
200
100
70
50
30
20
102009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
COVID-19
*Hawaii Tourism Authority first action priority is to “Reduce visitor impacts by improving infrastructure, actively managing sites, and decreasing the level of visitors
[emphasis added].” (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf)
Sources: Airports Division, Hawaii DOT, Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily-passenger-counts/ and http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/special/daily-pax-update.xls), monthly totals of daily
data through July 31, 2021, seasonally-adjusted by TZE using Census X-13 filter through December 2019, remaining monthly data not seasonally-adjusted through July 2021 .
U.S. recessions shaded
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Challenge to 2020s workforce development strategy: Less Is Not More
Policy of less tourism* implies lower exports, lower output, less employment, income reduction
• No growth tourism 1989-2019 did not mitigate risk (denominator of risk-adjusted returns)
• Negative growth is negative (numerator of risk-adjusted returns)
• Negative externalities remain unattended: congestion, resource degradation, cultural erosion
• De-industrialization policy posture (HTA) mixes messages
• Alternative industries—biotech since 1967 (maize genetics), astronomy since 1965 (TMT)—were
not previously pre-empted by growth of tourism, why are they all being cancelled now?
• One answer, dominant coalition: Politics of NIMBY, eco-pious denialism, global lodging brands
(protectionism), latent bigotry and xenophobia (“it changes the character of the neighborhood”)
*Hawaii Tourism Authority draft Oahu Destination Management Plan, first bullet point on its list of priority action items: “Reduce visitor impacts by…decreasing the level of visitors”
(https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf).
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Appendix 2: demographic trends
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Oahu net domestic migration has been negative for decades: more
residents leaving from than moving to Oahu; “voting with their feet”
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Hawaii DBEDT (May 2021) Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
and Their Geographic Components: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx).
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Change in persons per year
Net change
Net int’l
migration
Births
Deaths
Net
domestic
11,190 10,785 8,199 1,508 3,753 1,289 −6,071 −5,897 −7,585 −9,665
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Neighbor Island 2010s population change: more net out-migration,
save on Big Island, lower fertility, aging; slow to no population growth
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Change in persons
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Change in persons
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Change in persons
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Int’l
Dom
Births
Deaths
KilaueaBig Island
Maui
Kauai
• Net domestic migration negative on Maui for since 2015;
Kauai in 2019-2020; on Big Island after volcanic eruption
• Kauai population decline in 2019 and 2020 (−440)
• July 2010 – July 2020 cumulative percent changes:
9.7% Big Island (17,979 persons)
4.6% Kauai (4,643 persons)
8.3% Maui (12,877 persons)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Hawaii DBEDT (May 2021) Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
and Their Geographic Components: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx).
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Thousand residents (log scale)
500
400
300
200
100
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
346
993964443Oahu (right scale)
Neighbor Isles (left scale)
130
Oahu’s population has declined by almost 30,000 2016-2020, N. Isle
population flat since 2018; fluke or future? 10,000 surplus houses?
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx), Hawaii DBEDT (http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).
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Thousand persons, log scale
50
40
30
20
15
10
5
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
71.85kU.S.-Hawaii
Free Trade AgreementHawaii
Statehood
+2𝜎
−2𝜎
Iniki
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx), Hawaii DBEDT (http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).
Those who forget the past are condemned to retweet it: pre-Covid
Kauai population decline suggests possible repeat of mid-20th century
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Thousand persons, log scale
200
100
80
60
40
30
20
10
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
203.3k
U.S.-Hawaii
Free Trade AgreementHawaii
Statehood
+2𝜎
−2𝜎
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx), Hawaii DBEDT (http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).
Big Island population stagnation after 1930 (mechanization, Honolulu
urbanization) is a reminder that room to grow is not the determinant
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Thousand persons, log scale
100
80
60
40
30
20
10
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
U.S.-Hawaii
Free Trade AgreementHawaii
Statehood
+2𝜎
−2𝜎
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx), Hawaii DBEDT (http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).
167.9k
Maui’s population grew steadily with sugarcane, pineapple after
reciprocity, Statehood after mechanization, stagnated in late-2010s
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Thousand persons (log scale)
1,500
1,450
1,400
1,350
1,300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Hawaii statewide population estimates including 2020 and official State
projection (2018): 20,000 surplus housing units? more remote workers?
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx): Hawaii DBEDT Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2045
(June 2018) (http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/2045-long-range-forecast/2045-long-range-forecast-appendices.xlsx and http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).
Why not?
Actual data
State projections (2018) @ 0.6% p.a.
60kU.S. recessions shaded
Like a miracle
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Population losers and gainers 2019→2020: no clear pattern (e.g. coal,
petroleum states in mid-2010s), but remote work probably one factor
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census July 1, 2020 Estimates of Population and Housing Units (December 29, 2020) (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html) and
accompanying data (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx).
% changes Persons
0.9469 North Carolina 99,439
0.9769 Montana 10,454
1.0383 Delaware 10,141
1.0453 Washington 79,588
1.1225 Florida 241,256
1.1699 South Carolina 60,338
1.2901 Texas 373,965
1.4515 Utah 46,496
1.5364 Nevada 47,488
1.7768 Arizona 129,558
2.1158 Idaho 37,853
% changes Persons
-0.6492 .New York -126,355
-0.6275 .Illinois -79,487
.
-0.5835 .West Virginia -10,476
-0.3842 .Mississippi -11,441
-0.3333 .Alaska -2,445
-0.2784 .Louisiana -12,967
-0.2528 .Connecticut -9,016
-0.1827 .Michigan -18,240
-0.1763 .California -69,532
-0.1221 .Pennsylvania -15,629
-0.1120 .Vermont -699
-0.1000 .New Jersey -8,887
-0.0976 .Rhode Island -1,033
-0.0281 .Ohio -3,290
-0.0190 .Massachusetts -1,309
-0.6081 Hawaii -8,609
Population losers Population gainers
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Appendix 3: Post-Covid monetary policy
▪ Monetary policy builds on Bernanke quantitative easing
1. Stabilize financial markets immediately with liquidity injection (confidence = liquidity)
2. Forward guidance so nobody can fake like they didn’t know the plan
3. Treasury yields confirm that recovery began last fall, front-run to interim term structure
▪ Inflation Mansplaining
1. Inversion of term structure of implied inflation expectations implies that it is transitory
2. Evolution of inflation targeting
a) Mishkin, Bernanke et al publish textbook Inflation Targeting (1999)
b) Ned Gramlich (in Honolulu): “you’d have to be living in a cave not to know…” (2005)
c) FRBSF Prez Janet Yellen (at BOH luncheon): “our non-target target for inflation” (2007)
d) Fed Chair Bernanke publishes a target target: 2 percent PCE deflator (Jan 2012)
e) Fed Chair Powell’s AIT elaboration: 2 percent on average over time (Aug 2020)
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The FOMC forecast for inflation this year increased by 1 percentage
point between March and June 2021, but is expected to revert to 2%
Source: Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Board (June 16, 2021) Summary of Economic Projections (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210616.pdf)
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-8
-4
0
4
8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
$0.59 tr.
Trillion $, monthly averages)
Sources: Monthly averages of weekly averages, Federal Reserve Board (Statistical Release H.4.1), compiled through week of June 30, 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/default.htm)
Assets
Liabilities and capital
U.S. Treasury securities
Mortgage-backed securities
Credit, liquidity facilities
Federal Reserve notes in circulation
Reserve deposits of depository institutions
Reverse repurchase agreements
Lehman Brothers fails
Agency debt
$5.14 tr.
$2.18 tr.
$3.84 tr.
$0.85 tr.
$0.73 tr.
$0.42 tr.
$2.29 tr.
U.S. Treasury general account
SARS-CoV-2
Monetary stabilization, accommodation of liquidity preference, fiscal
stimuli expanded Federal Reserve asset purchases, balance sheet
Other
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0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Nominal U.S. Treasury yields: overnight rates at zero lower bound, as
of June 16, 2021 FOMC projected low, inching upward through 2023
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (June 16, 2022)
(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210616.htm).
COVID-19
10-yr
30-yr
2-yr
2.5%
P T P T*
Lehman
Brothers
Taper
Tantrum
Normalization
10-yr
30-yr
U.S. recessions
shaded gray
FOMC median fed funds
target rate projection
Fed
funds
*Unofficial (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions)
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Talk is cheap? If “everybody” is concerned about reviving 1980s
inflation, then why don’t mortgage rates reflect the concern?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 Percent
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield
30-year fixed rate mortgage rate
3.0%
1.6%
Sources: Federal Reserve Board (data download https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/), Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US).
Test for “Granger Causality:”
T-Note yield causes mortgage rate (F = 11.7660)
Mortgage rate causes T-Note yield (F = 6.2032)
U.S. recessions shaded
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Confidence is liquidity: Covid raised precautionary demand. Q: Why
was boosting M2 money stock not inflationary? A: Velocity collapsed
Sources: Federal Reserve Board Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [WM2NS], Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], both retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS), July 5, 2021.
Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2)
balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail
MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
$20 tril.
$16
$12
$8
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
M2 money stock, n.s.a. (trillion $)
(right scale, logs)
M2 velocity, s.a. (left scale)
Lehman
Brothers COVID-19
U.S. recessions shaded
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Appendix 4: whatchumean you not vaccinated, you bucks-for-lolo?
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Source: Johns Hopkins University (https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv), daily data through
August 9, 2021.
Daily incidence would make Louisiana the worst country worldwide
for COVID*; Florida only reports weekly to obscure rising morbidity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
New daily COVID-19 cases per million persons (7-day moving averages)
3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21
Louisiana
Florida
Arkansas
Hawaii
*Highest incidence Aug. 9: (1) Louisiana (US) (1,153); (2) Georgia (EU) (1,009); (3) Botswana (950), (4) Florida (US) (889, last Friday); (5) Cuba (797); (6) Mississippi (795); (7) Arkansas (758)
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Now the State is doing something about the Delta variant?* Only
about one month too late, eh? (MIA: City & County of Honolulu)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Oahu new COVID-19 cases/million persons
3/1/20 5/1/20 7/1/20 9/1/20 11/1/20 1/1/21 3/1/21 5/1/21 7/1/21 9/1/21
Jul. 4Jul. 4
Sources: Hawaii DOH (https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdisease2019/), Hawaii DBEDT (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/co-est2020-alldata.xlsx); all calculations by TZE
7-day MA
August 10
(Sunday tests)
*State of Hawaii Office of the Governor (August 10, 2021) EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-05 (Statewide Limits for Social Gatherings, Restaurants, Bars, and Social Establishments)
(https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2108048-ATG_Executive-Order-No.-21-05-distribution-signed.pdf)
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-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3
Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—time spent at home
relative to pre-Covid: remote work plus people act before government
Sources: Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, and the Opportunity Insights Team (November 2020) “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using
Private Sector Data” (https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf, data at
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/main/data/Google%20Mobility%20-%20State%20-%20Daily.csv)
Aug. 2State City
lockdown
Daily dwell time relative to January 2020
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Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—“park use”: public
behavior turning points lead non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
Daily dwell time relative to January 2020
2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3
Sources: Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, and the Opportunity Insights Team (November 2020) “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using
Private Sector Data” (https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf, data at
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/main/data/Google%20Mobility%20-%20State%20-%20Daily.csv)
Aug. 2
State City
lockdown
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-.30
-.25
-.20
-.15
-.10
-.05
.00
Daily dwell time relative to January 2020
2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3
Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—“time spent away
from home” (workplace, shopping, recreation, etc.) getting Delta-ed
Sources: Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, and the Opportunity Insights Team (November 2020) “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using
Private Sector Data” (https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf, data at
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/main/data/Google%20Mobility%20-%20State%20-%20Daily.csv)
Aug. 2
State City
lockdown
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Deaths per thousand Hawaii residents
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Pearl
Harbor
Spinal
meningitis
Influenza
Bubonic
plague
Measles8.6
Those who forget history are condemned to retweet it: Hawaii’s worst
year during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic was 1920; death rates
Sources: Robert C. Schmitt (1977) Historical Statistics of Hawaii, University of Hawaii Press, DBEDT (various) State of Hawaii Data Book (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/databook/).
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Pau
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