california housing market forecast april 2015. california housing market outlook series: ca housing...

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

April 2015

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015f

SFH Resales (000s) 474.9 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 398.4

% Change 24.5% -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 3.9%

Median Price ($000s) $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $473.1

% Change -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 5.8%Housing Affordability Index 51% 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 29%

30-Yr FRM 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.1%

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

SALES DOWN FOR 2014 BUT WILL IMPROVE IN 2015; PRICE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THIS

YEAR

Units (Thousand)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015f

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

383,320398,360

Sales of Existing Detached Homes

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015f

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$447,010

$473,100

Median PricePrice

(Thousand)

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA: DOLLAR VOLUME UP 1.4% IN 2014, UP 10.0% IN 2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

$301

$244

$164 $133 $131 $127 $121

$140 $169 $171

$188

$ Volume of Sales Percent Change

% Change$ in Billion

-60%

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

US GDP -3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%

Nonfarm Job Growth -4.4% -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%

Unemployment 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4%

CPI -0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.6%Real Disposable Income, % Change -0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -0.2% 2.5% 3.3%

SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015f

Nonfarm Job Growth -6.0% -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4%

Unemployment Rate 11.3% 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.6%

Population Growth 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.3% 0.9% 3.4% 4.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.3%

SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®