by kimball brace, president election data services, inc. february, 2011 common data format : data...

By Kimball Brace, President

Election Data Services, Inc. February, 2011

Common Data Format:Data Usage in Election

Administration

Election Data Services, Inc.

• Been collecting and analyzing election returns since 1977

• Kept track of voting equipment usage for nation since 1980

• Compiled extensive databases of election results and census demographics for redistricting in more than half the nation over past 4 apportionments

• Testified in more than 75 court cases, many concerning racial analysis of data

• Maintains County level database of election returns for nation

• Contractor for EAC for their 2004 & 2006 Election Day Survey, subcontractor for 2008 & 2010

2010

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?Since 1986, we’ve been on your wall.

In 2010/11 you’ll need a larger wall

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?

If it concerns elections,

And it deals with data …

We’re probably involved

Overview

• Diversity in Elections – Basic Facts

• Data Elements

• Remaining Problems

Basic Election Administration Facts

• Diversity is the underpinning of Elections.

50 States3,140 Counties1,620 NE Townships5,312 Midwest Townships

10,072 Election Jurisdictions

Basic Election Administration Facts

• Size is important to remember− Question: What is the mean size of jurisdictions

in nation in terms of registration? • 1,492 registered voters

− Over 1/3rd of nations’ counties have fewer than 10,000 registered voters in them

− Half of the nation’s counties have less than 16,000 registered voters

− Only 343 jurisdictions have more than 100,000 registered voters

− Only 14 counties have more than 1 million voters• Smallest County: Loving County, Texas: 136 voters• Largest County: Los Angeles, CA: 3.9 million voters

−Take 930 smallest counties to reach LA’s total.

Basic Election Administration Facts

Basic Election Administration Facts

Basic Election Administration Facts

• Elections are run in small jurisdictions− With small staff− Many of which are part-time or performing

other functions

• Reliance upon vendors for help− Observation on data elements

The Election Process – From a data prospective

Total Population

Voting Age Population

Citizen Voting Age Population

Registration

TurnoutVotes for President

Other Statewide OfficesCongressional

StateLegislature

Census Political

TIGER/Line® Files

Other Boundaries

Precinct and

Electoral District

Boundaries

Redistricting Summary

(PL 94-171). ACS Files, Citizenship

Data

Election Returns

and Voting Statistics

Tabular

Spatial

Redistricting Data Cube

© Election Data Services, Inc.

Source of data

Typ

e o

f D

ata

20102000

1990 ?

20102008

20062004

2002

EARLIER?

Turn-out

• Still don’t know total number of people who participated in the last presidential general election.−Definitions of turn-out,

ballots cast, ballots counted.

903 Jurisdictions in 21 states

have same number of people turning out,

as that voted for President of the US

Drop – off (or Residual Votes)

• 2004 was lowest rate in post WWII history.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

Dro

p-O

ff R

ate

Residual Votes or Drop-off• Difference between Total Turnout and

Total Votes for an office = − Overvotes +− Undervotes

• Normal elections− Overvotes = 10% of residual vote− Undervotes = 90% of residual vote

• Florida 2000 – opposite of above− Problem of ballot design

• Problem is getting overs & unders− Need for every office on ballot

2000 Presidential General Election

Type of Device Percent of

Counties

Percent of

Registered Voters

Punch card 16.8 28.2

Datavote 1.4 2.7

Lever 14.3 16.7

Paper Ballots 11.8 1.4

Optical Scan 41.9 30.3

Electronic 9.3 12.0

Mixed 4.4 8.7

Unrecorded Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election by Voting Equipment

Voting Technology Unrecorded Votes

Punch Card – Votomatic (28% of ballots)

2.8%

Optical Scan – Central Count (15% of ballots)

1.8%

DRE (11% of ballots) 1.7%

Lever Machine (15% of ballots)

1.6%

Paper Ballot (1% of ballots) 1.6%

Punch Card – Datavote (3% of ballots)

1.2%

Mixed (6% of ballots) 1.1%

Optical Scan – Precinct Count (20% of ballots)

0.9%

Current Problems

• Besides getting data & data elements

• Voting Equipment Change & Diversity− Over 74% of jurisdictions changed VE since 2000− Formerly, all voters in jurisdiction used same VE

• Analysis was easier, all voting patterns attributed to type of machine in use.

− Now most jurisdictions have multiple voting systems

• In-precinct system different than absentee, early• Unless votes are attributed to different voting

processes, analyzing voting equipment problems now harder to do cleanly.

Registration

• Not all states report registration the same− 24 states & DC: “Active” voters only− 25 states: Combine “Active” & “In-actives”− 1 state (CA): Different determination in each

county

2004

2006 survey findings -- Registration

Registration of Voting Age Population

Turn-out

Conclusion

• We do not do a good job of collecting data.

• The value of data is not well explained− Election administrators don’t always see the

value− Result – data not collected or retained.

• Essential data items not defined− “Steps of data” not comprehended− Auditing concepts not incorporated in data− Counts of persons who participated in

election (turnout) should be stipulated.− Overs & Under votes should be required for

each office on the ballot

• Benefits & uses of data should be studied

Thank you

Kimball Brace

President

Election Data Services, Inc.

6171 Emerywood Court

Manassas, VA 20112

(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)

KBrace@electiondataservices.com or KBrace@aol.com

www.electiondataservices.com