by kimball brace, president election data services, inc. october, 2009 election data formats : our...
TRANSCRIPT
By Kimball Brace, President
Election Data Services, Inc. October, 2009
Election Data Formats:Our Middle Name
Election Data Services, Inc.
• Been collecting and analyzing election returns since 1977
• Kept track of voting equipment usage for nation since 1980
• Compiled extensive databases of election results and census demographics for redistricting in more than half the nation over past 4 apportionments
• Testified in more than 75 court cases, many concerning racial analysis of data
• Maintains County level database of election returns for nation
• Contractor for EAC for their 2004 & 2006 Election Day Survey, subcontractor for 2008
Overview
• Diversity in Elections – Basic Facts
• Data Elements
• Remaining Problems
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Diversity is the underpinning of Elections.
50 States3,140 Counties1,620 NE Townships5,312 Midwest Townships
10,072 Election Jurisdictions
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Size is important to remember− Question: What is the mean size of jurisdictions
in nation in terms of registration? • 1,492 registered voters
− Over 1/3rd of nations’ counties have fewer than 10,000 registered voters in them
− Half of the nation’s counties have less than 16,000 registered voters
− Only 343 jurisdictions have more than 100,000 registered voters
− Only 14 counties have more than 1 million voters• Smallest County: Loving County, Texas: 136 voters• Largest County: Los Angeles, CA: 3.9 million voters
−Take 930 smallest counties to reach LA’s total.
Basic Election Administration Facts
Basic Election Administration Facts
Basic Election Administration Facts
• Elections are run in small jurisdictions− With small staff− Many of which are part-time or performing
other functions
• Reliance upon vendors for help− Observation on data elements
The Election Process – From a data element prospective
Total Population
Voting Age Population
Citizen Voting Age Population
Registration
TurnoutVotes for President
Other Statewide OfficesCongressional
StateLegislature
Turn-out
• Still don’t know total number of people who participated in 2004 general election.−Definitions of turn-out,
ballots cast, ballots counted.
903 Jurisdictions in 21 states
have same number of people turning out,
as that voted for President of the US
Drop – off (or Residual Votes)
• 2004 was lowest rate in post WWII history.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Dro
p-O
ff R
ate
Residual Votes or Drop-off• Difference between Total Turnout and
Total Votes for an office = − Overvotes +− Undervotes
• Normal elections− Overvotes = 10% of residual vote− Undervotes = 90% of residual vote
• Florida 2000 – opposite of above− Problem of ballot design
• Problem is getting overs & unders− Need for every office on ballot
Unrecorded Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election by Voting Equipment
Voting Technology Unrecorded Votes
Punch Card – Votomatic (28% of ballots)
2.8%
Optical Scan – Central Count (15% of ballots)
1.8%
DRE (11% of ballots) 1.7%
Lever Machine (15% of ballots)
1.6%
Paper Ballot (1% of ballots) 1.6%
Punch Card – Datavote (3% of ballots)
1.2%
Mixed (6% of ballots) 1.1%
Optical Scan – Precinct Count (20% of ballots)
0.9%
Current Problems
• Besides getting data & data elements
• Voting Equipment Change & Diversity− Nearly 70% of jurisdictions changed VE
since 2000− Formerly, all voters in jurisdiction used
same VE• Now most jurisdictions have multiple voting
systems− In-precinct system different than absentee,
early
2008 General Election
Current Problems
• Besides getting data & data elements
• Voting Equipment Change & Diversity− Nearly 70% of jurisdictions changed VE since 2000− Formerly, all voters in jurisdiction used same VE
• Now most jurisdictions have multiple voting systems− In-precinct system different than absentee, early
• Method of Voting shifting, but not being reflected in data− Absentee, Early Voting, Disabled,
Provisional
Thank you
Kimball Brace
President
Election Data Services, Inc.
6171 Emerywood Court
Manassas, VA 20112
(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)
[email protected] or [email protected]
www.electiondataservices.com