brexit slides_-_pdf

11

EU

Referendum

19th April 2016

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union

or leave the European Union?

• Referendum after decades of division

• EU debate brought down Margaret Thatcher, wounded John Major

• Euroscepticism on the rise since 2008

• The result will define the future of David Cameron, Conservatives and UK

65days to go

Background

Source: What UK Thinks Source: YouGov/Times

Current Polling – Neck and Neck

Male Female

40%

41%

19%

40%

36%

24%

Source: YouGov/Times

Current Polling - Gender

Vote by region

Current Polling - Regions

Remain Leave

32%

51%

17%

62%22%

16%

64%23%

13%

Current Polling - Party

90%

7% 3%

Source: YouGov/Times polling

Current Polling - Age

Sir Lynton Crosby:

“the outcome of the referendum will hinge on which

side can better turnout their supporters rather than

which side can better persuade the small number of

voters not locked into supporting either side”

70% of Leave voters are certain to vote

versus

61% of Remain supporters certain to vote

Turnout

• Campaign officially underway

• Conservative Party increasingly divided

• Labour Party have weak leadership

• ‘’Events’’ risk vote to leave

• Public showing lack of engagement

The state of play

The Prime Minister negotiated a package of reforms

National

Parliaments are given a ‘Red

Card’ to veto EU

legislation

Financial

protections are granted to

the City and to

non-Eurozone

states

Regulation

and Red Tape will be cut in

favor of a more

competitive

approach

Ever Closer

Union is accepted

to be unsuitable

for Britain

An Emergency

Brake can be placed

on welfare of

immigrants for

up to 7 years

What’s on Offer

Media Hysteria

Remain Campaign

Remain Messaging

Leave Campaign

Leave Messaging

Remain Leave

Economy

Immigration

Sovereignty

Security

Key Arguments

Prioritise trade and

investment with the EU

Single Market

Want trade deals with

emerging markets,

maintaining access to

Single Market

Free movement of

labour is vital to growth

and productivity

Criticise strain on public

services, argue for

points-based policy

Sovereignty is

enhanced by pooling

with neighbours

Sovereignty lost to

unelected, undemocratic

EU

Security and solidarity

through working with

allies

NATO is center of European

security, and argue EU makes

us less secure

If the UK Votes to Leave …

The process of withdrawing from the EU

Article 50

• Article 50 of the Treaty of the

European Union outlines the two

year withdrawal process for a

member state

• Article 50 has never been tested,

and any extension must be agreed

unanimously at the EU Council

• If there is no deal after 2 years,

member states must unanimously

agree to an extension

If the UK votes to leave: short-term

Implications for the UK Implications for the EU

David Cameron forced

to resign, Boris Johnson

frontrunner to replace

Implications for UK

Presidency of EU

Council, Q3 & Q4 2017

Second Scottish

Independence

Referendum

Cabinet Office and

Foreign Office estimate

‘decade of uncertainty’

Implications for the UK Implications for the EU

More referenda & possible exits,

(Sweden, NL)

Less counter-balance to German

domination, Southern Europe

protectionism

Financial services affected, possible loss

of Pass-porting rights

Russia would increase influence on

European continent

Impact on investment in manufacturing and

industry

Pivot to Asia, Africa, Commonwealth

Economic Uncertainty Implications for global politics

Bank of England preparing stimulus to keep

economy stable

Rationale for UK-China Golden Age is

threatened, status as preferred partner is

undermined

If the UK votes to leave: long-term

Brexit Bandwagon

Alternative modelsWhat would the UK look like outside the EU?

• Canada has negotiated the CETA trade deal with the EU

• Must obey EU rules and quotas with no say in their creation

• Switzerland has a comprehensive trade deal with the EU

• Contributes to EU budget, complies with EU regulation

accepts free movement of people

• Norway trades freely as part of EFTA

• Pays over €650 million annually to the EU budget, complies

with regulations

The WTO option

• British trade with EU would revert to WTO rules unless a new treaty is agreed

• A range of tariffs would be applied to British goods.

If the UK Votes to Stay …

If the UK votes to stay

Implications for the EU Implications for the UK Long term consequences

British renegotiation

implemented, 2-speed EU

officially recognized

Margin of victory will matter Euroscepticism will not go away

EU focus returns to growth,

refugees, Russia

Surge in pound as investor

confidence returns

German Federal Elections in

2017 could see a new de facto

leader of the EU

TTIP to be negotiated before

President Obama leaves office

Conservative leadership

contest – David Cameron to

leave before 2020

EU will struggle to remain

competitive on global stage

compared

How people voted will remain a

‘badge of honour’ in British

Politics

Conclusion

PredictionsRemain is likely to win

Turnout will be key

‘Project fear’ right up until polling day

Events could change everything

3232

Thank You

18th April 2016