boiling the human convenience and confusion on the path to the singularity tony greenberg & alex...

BOILING THE HUMAN

CONVENIENCE AND CONFUSIONON THE PATH TO THE SINGULARITY

Tony Greenberg & Alex VeytselRampRate

Eric PulierServiceMesh

BASIC CHALLENGES

Getting There from Here: Change is not inherently positive. Value-driven direction is vital.

Land of the Lost: Exponential Tech can overwhelm Linear Human decision-making.

Madoff’s Law: Anywhere a profit can be made, it will be, regardless of human consequences

THE CONCERN:

Madoff’s Law could thrive, creating an ugly future.

STUMBLING INTO THE LAND OF THE LOST

Technological Progress

Human-Scale Adaptation

Develo

pm

en

t

Time

The LandOf the

Lost

INNOVATING PAST THE CHALLENGES…MAYBE

Technological Progress

Business-Model Adaptation

Human-Scale Adaptation Exploitative

Business Models

Failure to

Innovate

BOILING THE FROG

DRAWING THE LINE

BUSINESS MODEL ADAPTATION

YESTERDAY’S REVOLUTIONS

Revolutions in Connecting… People to People Information to Information People to Information

And Now in Sharing…

BUILDING THE NEXT REVOLUTION: Bandwidth Heading to Zero

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cost to Deliver 1 GB of Video

$0.01

$0.10

$1.00

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cost to Deliver 1 GB of Video

BUILDING THE NEXT REVOLUTION:Storage Heading to Zero

EXPONENTIAL “LAWS”

TRANSFORMING BUSINESS

Moore’s Law: Number of transistors on a circuit doubles and price halves every 12 to 18 months.

Metcalfe’s Law: A network’s value rises based on the square of the number of users.

Zuckerberg’s Law: The amount of information shared between people doubles every 12 to 18 months.

Pulier’s Law: The time and cost to launch a venture that reaches 100M people halves every 12 to 18 months.

THE CONVENIENCE EFFECT

AMAZON GOOGLE FACEBOOK TWITTER ZYNGA FOURSQUARE

Then… we turn up the heat a little more…

•Default becomes “open”

•Privacy becomes a “process”

WITH GREAT POWER…

…COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY Or just a great opportunity to make a LOT of

money…

INNOVATION: SOME MARKETS ARE WILDLY SUCCESSFUL

1943 (apocryphal) target market: 5 units worldwide (faux photo)

2009 market: 274 million units per year

INNOVATION: the PROMISE

In 1962 In 1989

Innovation: The PAYOFF?

FAILURE TO INNOVATE

Technological Progress

Business Model Adaptation

Human Scale Adaptation

Failure to

Innovate

EXPLOITED IN THE LAND OF THE LOST

Technological Progress

Business Model Adaptation

Human Scale Adaptation Exploitative

Business Models

THE PARADOX OF CHOICE

happiness

choices

Alfred Toffler

Greg Easterbrook

FLEEING FROM CHOICE……TO CONFORMITY

CUSTOMER DISSERVICE:2010’S WORST COMPANIES

21 of 32 nominees are pure services companies

3 of 4 finalists- The eventual “winner”?

The Lesson: Services Markets Reward Poor Customer Service

ARE WE BUILDING A TRANSHUMANIST SERVICES MARKET?

Future Services

Virtual reality Bio-Uploading Cryonics Nanotech

OR ARE WE BUILDING A… Transhumanist DISSERVICES Market?

HUMAN-SCALE ADAPTATION:SHIFTING THE CURVE

MUCH ADO ABOUT… SOMETHING?

Fear mongering not the same as organizing behavior

change…

We Need Systemic Solutions.

YOUR ASSIGNMENT:HOW TO CREATE THE RIGHT MARKET?

Focus on:

More InnovationLess Exploitation

Resources needed: Regulation – In time? Not co-opted? Covenants – How many altruists are there? Impartial Arbiters – Who’s really impartial? Individual Choice – Did you go open source?

Did you ditch Facebook?

WHERE NEXT?

ERIC’S IDEAS

Create A Singularity Bill of Rights for humans and machines.

The Singularity Stock Exchange SSE rates companies against its Bill of Rights. Capture the conscious capitalist!

The Next Green Movement. Encourage support, pacts with higher-ranked companies.

Create predictable correlation between stock price and market success with Singularity Stock Exchange price.

ALEX’S IDEAS

Divorce political organization from geography

Create self-selecting communities Virtual societies compete for

citizens More citizens = More influence Political service becomes political

imperative

TONY’S IDEAS

A world without exploitative sales and salesmanship

But How? Awareness. Expectations. Accountability/Transparency Automagical software that meshes people/technology

needs and consciousness

THANK YOU

Write us at:

tony@ramprate.com

alex@ramprate.com

eric.pulier@servicemesh.com

This presentation will be available at www.BoilTheMan.com