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Aviation 4.0

More Safety through

Automation and Digitization?

How new technological developments may help.

ASDA 2016-11-10/11

Peter Waldinger 1

ASDA – Association for the Scientific Development of ATM in Europe

Series of Research Tournaments 2016

Technical University of Delft

10./11. November 2016

Table of Content

Peter Waldinger ASDA

2016-11-10/11

1. Aviation 4.0 – Attempt of Definition

2. Human Beings vs. Computers – Rate of Mistakes / Errors per „Action“

3. Aviation Accidents and Incidents – what we can learn from it?

4. What are Doing other Modes of Transport and other Industries?

5. Building Blocks available from Aviation 1.0, 2.0, 3.0

6. Aviation 4.0 Research Agenda - ATM R&D needs and goals

7. Aviation 4.0 – Vision or Utopia?

2

Aviation 4.0 – Attempt of Definition (following some ideas of Industry 4.0)

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Stage of Aviation Development

Characteristics Characteristics of Signal

Processing

Main challenges

Aviation 1.0: VFR Airspace Visual signals How to build and fly an aircraft?

Aviation 2.0: IFR Frequency Space

Technical analoge signals

How to fly an aircraft under adverse met-conditions? How to control multiple aircraft flying in dense traffic in same airspace?

Aviation 3.0: Assistance Systems; Safety Nets

Data Space (Digitization; Informatization)

Digital data processing; Digital data communication

To support the people with aggregated, visualized, under-standable information to make informed decisions; SWIM; CDM

Aviation 4.0: AFR RPAS / OPAS Decentralized decisions by systems

CyberSpace (Automation; Artificial Intelligence – AI; IoT; Big Data; BA)

Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems to assist humans physically strenuous, unpleasant or dangerous work. Cyber-physical systems to take decisions and to complete tasks autonomously. AFR: „Automatic / Autonomous Flight Rules“

IoT: „Internet of Things“

Digitization is more than Automation

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Automation means to run well defined processes automatically / autonomously.

Digitization allows for new features / capabilities, which are not available / feasible in the analog world.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) An ideal "intelligent" machine is a flexible rational agent that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of success at some goal. [Wikipedia]

Business analytics (BA) focuses on developing new insights and understanding of business performance based on data and statistical methods. [Wikipedia]

Key Performance Areas (KPAs) in Aviation

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1. Safety

2. Security

3. Capacity, Regularity, Predictability, Punctuality

4. Efficiency

Cost-Efficiency

Flight-Efficiency

5. Environmental Sustainability

Gaseous Emmisions (CO2; others)

Sound Pressure (Noise) Aviation 4.0 has the potential to help to improve in all areas;

however, in my „impulse“ presentation the focus is on „safety“. Other use cases / ideas will be presented by Rosa Arnaldo Valdès.

Human Beings vs. Computers Mistakes / Errors per Action

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Rough Orders of Magnitude

• Human Beings: +/- 10-3

(one error per thousand „actions“)

• Computers: < 10-6

(better than one error per million „actions“)

Aviation 4.0 has the potential to significantly reduce the risk of fatalities resulting from human „errors“!

SES has set the target to enhance safety in aviation by a factor of 10 (2005 2020)

Target Levels of Safety 10 -8 to 10-9

Aviation Accidents and Incidents … and what to learn from it

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Examples:

Überlingen: DHL-Flight 611 und Bashkirian-Airlines-Flight 2937

German Wings Flight 4U 9525

Air France Flight AF 447

Malaysian Flight MH 370

September, 11th

Air crew incapacitated, e. g. contaminated air in cockpit

Each of the above examples is representative of a particular category of incidents / accidents

Aviation Accidents and Incidents Überlingen: DHL-Flight 611 und Bashkirian-Airlines-Flight 2937

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Aviation Accidents and Incidents Überlingen: DHL-Flight 611 und Bashkirian-Airlines-Flight 2937

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TCAS RAs were correctly generated. If both crews would have acted accordingly (following the „rules“), they would

have avoided the accident. Why the aircraft is not following the RA autonomously?

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Aviation Accidents and Incidents German Wings Flight 4U 9525

Aviation Accidents and Incidents German Wings Flight 4U 9525

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The Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System generated at 10:40 the necessary warnings: „Terrain!“ and „Pull Up!“ as well as a visual warning. At 10:41 Uhr the aircraft hit the ground at an altitude of 1,550 m in the Provencal Alps. [Wikipedia]

The „warnings“ were generated correctly. Why the aircraft not to follow the warnings autonomously

(in case the crew is not taking appropriate action in due time)?

Aviation Accidents and Incidents Air France Flight AF 447

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“Due to the different measured speed values, the autopilot was deactivated by the on-board computer and the control computers switched to "Alternate Law", which means that certain parameters were no longer monitored by the electronics”

"Although the loss of the speed data has been ascertained and announced, neither of the two co-pilots had applied the “unreliable-airspeed procedure”.

“The pilot-in-control pulled back on the stick, thus increasing the angle of attack and causing the aircraft to climb rapidly”.

“The pilots apparently did not notice that the aircraft had reached its maximum permissible altitude. “

“The pilots did not read out the available data (vertical velocity, altitude, etc.). The stall warning sounded continuously for 54 seconds. The pilots did not comment on the stall warnings and apparently did not realize that the aircraft was stalled”.

[Wikipedia]

Aviation Accidents and Incidents Air France Flight AF 447

Aviation Accidents and Incidents Malaysian Flight MH 370

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Flight MH 370

left the „filed / cleared“ flight

path.

No radar picture, no

communication with ATC.

All criteria of a

„Renegade“ situation

were met. Could an Aviation 4.0 FMS prevent from deviating from the filed flight plan in that massive way (without having activated a feasible „alternate“ routing)?

Aviation Accidents and Incidents September, 11th

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Could an Aviation 4.0 FMS prevent from flying into

a no-fly-zone (NFZ)?

restricted area?

Aviation Accidents and Incidents Flight Crew Incapacitated, e. g. Air Contamination in the Cockpit

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• The airline industry is facing an ongoing serious health and flight safety problem whereby: Engine oils and hydraulic fluid sometimes contaminate the air supply;

• Contaminated air is known to have impaired crew performance and on occasion incapacitated pilots and flight attendants;

• This unacceptable situation has been ongoing for over forty years.

• Severe impact of contaminated air on a crew’s ability to fly the aircraft. [http://www.theairlinepilots.com/forumarchive/aeromedical/flightsafetyandcontaminatedair.php]

Should Aviation 4.0 have a „dead man's button“? Should this device activate – in case of a case – an „alternate“

(emergency) routing to be flown autonomously? e. g.: Project „Emergency Safe Return (eSafe)“

[http://www.aviotech.de/da42-autoland.html]

Safety Goals of SES

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Enhance aviation safety by a factor 10!

Thesis: Aviation 4.0,

using the potential of automatic / autonomous flying,

in pre-defined situations,

in a rule based way,

could tremendously help to overcome today‘s safety / security gaps.

What are Doing other Modes of Transport and other Industries ?

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• Driverless railways - e. g. Metro in Nürnberg

• Deutsche Bahn works on trains without a driver. "I am counting

on the fact that in 2021, 2022 or 2023 we will be so far that we can run fully automated in parts of our network," said the chairman of the Deutsche Bahn, Rüdiger Grube. [Zeit Online. 9.6.2016]

What are Doing other Modes of Transport and other Industries ?

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• Autonomous driving cars Elon Musk, head of the electric car manufacturer Tesla, wants

to cross the USA next year in an autonomous driving car.

What are Doing other Modes of Transport and other Industries ?

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• Driverless Railways

• Autonomous driving cars

• Industry 4.0

or the fourth industrial revolution, is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud computing [wikipedia]

Building Blocks available from Aviation 1.0, 2.0, 3.0

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Autopilots

AutoLand Systems

TCAS/ACAS <–> STCA, MTCD

GPWS <-> MSAW

4-D Trajectory (gate - to - gate)

Flight (Mission) Management Systems

Electronic Flight Bags

Drones / RPAS / OPAS – These Systems fly a predifined (alternate) route autonomously to its end in case the (remote) pilot is disabled (dis-connected)

….

Aviation 4.0 Research Agenda

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Focussed R&D work is needed to get it done: • Rules?

• What can we learn in ATM from developments in other technological areas, e. g. Industry 4.0?

• Most promising use cases? Safety and other areas.

• Pre-definition of situations, where automatic / autonomous flying to be „activated“? And to be de-activated after the situation has improved.

• Which „sensor“ signals / data inputs are needed to determine, whether an in - flight situation is out of an acceptable „envelope“?

• Cyber-physical safety net, covering multiple risk areas?

• Model – theoretical basis for new applications?

• Safety analysis for Aviation 4.0 applications

• Regulatory issues? Liability?

• …

Aviation 4.0 - Vision or Utopia?

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"Tell me the past, and I shall know the future. “

[Konfuzius]

We have quite some lessons learned from accidents and incidents in aviation!

„Future needs Heritage“

[Odo Marquard]

We have more than 100 years of experience in aviation!

Aviation 4.0 - Vision or Utopia?

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• A lot of puzzle stones needed are already available and in operational use or under development.

• Developments and experiences from other domains can be taken on board.

• Missing links are topics for a future research agenda – however, no unsolvable issues identified so far.

• One hand, engineering and operational skills and experience are needed – on the other hand, skills and experience in (social) change management not negligible.

A 380 – AutoLanding in Frankfurt

The End

25 09.02.2011 Peter Waldinger

Experts on the Podium

Profesora Dra. Rosa Arnaldo Valdès

TU Madrid, Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports; Safety expert. President of the Spanish Civil Aircraft Accident Investigation Authority (CIAIAC).

Dipl.-Ing. Dirk Menne

Operations Manager DB Regio AG; Head of Operational Rules, Regulations, and Qualification; DB Safety Director.

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