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Assessment of Atmospheric Pollution in the Asia-Pacific: Science-based Solutions

Key findings

Markus Amann

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

47th Session of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brescia, May 8-9, 2018

POLICY INTERVENTIONS HELPED TO BREAK THE HISTORIC LINKAGEBETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMISSIONS IN ASIA

Source: IIASA, GAINS

IN 2015, AIR QUALITY STANDARDS

WERE EXCEEDED OVER LARGE AREAS IN ASIA

AMBIENT PM2.5 IN 2015

Source: IIASA, GAINS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

Exposure from human activitiesNatural sources

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

FURTHER AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS IN ASIAREQUIRE A RE-ORIENTATION OF CURRENT POLICIES

Measures already in place in 2015• Vehicle emission standards• TSP(+SO2+NOx) controls at large plants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

Post-2015 legislation• SO2+NOx controls at stationary sources

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

Conventional PM controls

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

‘Next stage’ air quality measures• Fertilizer use, manure management• Open burning of waste and biomass• Forest fires, I&M of vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

Development measures• Clean cooking fuels, renewable energy• Energy efficiency, waste management• Public transport and electric vehicles

Mean population exposure to PM2.5

THESE MEASURES CAN PROVIDE CLEAN AIRTO ONE BILLION PEOPLE

Source: IIASA, GAINS

0 1 2 3 4

2015

< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)

35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3

65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3

People exposed to household pollution

Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations

0 1 2 3 4

2015

Currentlegislation

2030

< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)

35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3

65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3

People exposed to household pollution

Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations

0 1 2 3 4

2015

Currentlegislation

2030

Top 25Clean AirMeasures

2030

< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)

35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3

65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3

People exposed to household pollution

Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations

0

2

4

6

8

10

Redu

ctio

n of

pop

ulat

ion

expo

sure

to P

M2.

5in

2030

(µg

/m3 )

THE PRIORITY MEASURES DIFFER ACROSS REGIONS,DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND GEO-PHYSICAL CONDITIONS

Source: IIASA, GAINS

2015 measures CLE measures Further potential

East Asia - Exposure reduction potential (µg/m3)

02468

1012141618

South Asia

INEQUALITIES OF POLLUTIONINDIA - 2010

LOW INCOME

HIGH INCOME

HEALTH BURDEN

LOW INCOME

HIGH INCOME

EMISSIONS

HEALTH BURDEN

LOW INCOME

HIGH INCOME

EMISSIONS

HEALTH BURDEN

EXPENDITURES FOR ENERGY(% OF INCOME)

Source: Kiesewetter et al., 2018

INCOME GROUPS

Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%

‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline

0% -29% -56%

Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline

-19% -44% -72%

THE TOP 25 CLEAN AIR MEASURES ALSO AFFECT CLIMATE FORCERS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

Mean population exposure to PM2.5

Climate forcers SDG

CO2 CH4 BC benefits

Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%

THE DEVELOPMENT MEASURES COULD REDUCE GLOBALTEMPERATURE INCREASE BY ONE THIRD DEGREE

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

Currentlegislation

Conventionalmeasures

+'Next generation'measures

+Developmentmeasures

Diffe

renc

e in

glo

bal m

ean

tem

pera

ture

in 2

050

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

(°C)

Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change

THE TOP 25 MEASURES COULD SLOW DOWN GLOBAL TEMPERATUREINCREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Diffe

renc

e in

glo

bal m

ean

tem

pera

ture

in 2

050

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

(°C)

Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change

Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%

‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline

0% -29% -56%

Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline

-19% -44% -72%

THE NEW POLICY MEASURES WOULD HAVE IMPORTANTCO-BENEFITS ON SDGS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2030

Mea

n ex

posu

re [µ

g/m

3PM

2.5]

WHOguideline

WHOtarget 1

Mean population exposure to PM2.5

Climate forcers SDG

CO2 CH4 BC benefits

Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%

Key messages

• While current policies limit a further increase of emissions in Asia, they will not be sufficient to significantly improve air quality.

• To move towards the Air Quality Standards, measures that involve other sectors (agriculture, energy, waste management, etc.) will be indispensable.

• The Top 25 Clean Air Measures will deliver a wide range of health- and other development benefits and reduce pollutants that influence temperature increase and climate.

• Integrated multi-approaches (such as in the LRTAP Convention) could embed air quality measures in the development agendas, and offer powerful incentives for measures that serve the global goods.