assessing the impacts of climate and economic changes on indian agriculture a case study of...

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Economic Changes on Indian Agriculture A Case Study of Groundnut Farmers in Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh

Background

Double Exposure in Anantapur Trade liberalisation of oilseeds and edible oils

in 1994-95

Drought since 1999-2000

Vulnerability to Globalisation

ANANTAPUR

Vulnerability to Climate Change

ANANTAPUR

Map of India

Delhi

Hyderabad

Anantapur

Bangalore

Map of Anantapur district

Ipperu village

Kadiri

Research Strategy

Asian Social Forum, Hyderabad Key informant interviews in Hyderabad

and Anantapur Collected statistics from government

offices Group interviews with farmers, 2

villages Kadiri Household interviews in Ipperu village,

outside Anantapur

Research Strategy

Asian Social Forum

Farmer Suicides

Agriculture in Anantapur

Groundnut is the major crop Rainfed agriculture Small and medium farmers;

landless labourers

Agriculture in Anantapur

1970s: shift from subsistence crops to groundnut

1980s: Operation yellow – drive for self sufficiency in edible oil

1994: Trade liberalization of oilseeds/edible oils

Pre- 1970s: Subsistence Farming

Diversity of crops (bajra, jowar, ragi, etc)

Grain stocks Livestock Common lands Family Labour

Irrigated Jowar and Groundnut

Changing Conditions from 1970s

Investments in infrastructure Demand for oilseeds from new local

oilmills Subsidised food through PDS Reduced family labour supply

Shift to lucrative monocrop groundnut

Effects

Expanding area under groundnutDeterioration and privatization of

common landsLess fodderFewer livestock

Pest problems

Vulnerability

To climate variability

To trade liberalization

Drought – dried up tank

Falling water tables

Normal water level

Normal water level

Irrigation

Rain-fed agriculture

Household Surveys

Findings

Price statistics -groundnutFarm harvest prices, rs/100 kg (2000-01-value)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-200

0

2000

-01

Source: Season and crop reports 1989-2001, Andhra Pradesh

Price statistics - groundnut

Source: Annual Administration Reports of Agricultural Marketing Committees in Anantapur District, 1995-2002

Source: Annual Administration Reports of Agricultural Marketing Committees in Anantapur District, 1995-2002

Kaderi, arrivals and prices (2000-1 values)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02

INR 0

INR 200

INR 400

INR 600

INR 800

INR 1,000

INR 1,200

INR 1,400

INR 1,600

Arrivals in 100 kg

Average price, rs/100 kg

Price statistics - groundnut

Source: Fieldwork, household interviews

Economic impact on farmers, IpperuType of farmer Family size Debt level,

rupis Normal annual net

income, rupis Drought annual

net income, rupis Low caste,

3 acres

5

20,000

10,620

-4,380 Low caste,

5 acres

12

2,500

23,470

10,145 Low caste,

7 acres

3

34,000

11,875

-5,135 Low caste,

10 acres

12

10,000

25,155

-45 Medium caste,

22.5 acres

6

387,000

110,975

-14,025 Upper caste,

20 acres

7

90,000

56,780

-28,720 Upper caste,

60 acres

8

90,000

92,040

-27,960

Possible Options

Water Harvesting

Prioritise water harvesting with appropriate technology

Divert water from other river basins to compensate for rainfall shortage

More R&D for rainfed crops Support for marketing value-added commodities

based on dryland crops (eg: mango, papaya, sweet lime)

Make credit available to small and medium farmers at reasonable interest rates

Stop and reverse the privatisation of common lands

Suggestions from Researchers and NGOs working in Anantapur

Outcomes: Usefulness of Case Studies Means of validating vulnerability indicators Ground-check on ‘reality’ as it is depicted

in macro profiles Identify areas for further study and

improvements that can be made in subsequent case studies

Network and interact with Indian researchers and organisations

Possibility for further collaborations in India

Disseminate information about our project and CICERO’s work