as risks unfold in cascading events

As risks unfold in cascading events – an EMV perspective

Lew ShortGeneral Manager Risk, Consequence & Resilience

“The world has entered the era of ‘mega

crisis’ or catastrophic emergencies’ whose

force and magnitude defy even the best

laid plans and the most robust response

systems”

Professor Paul ‘t Hart

Resilience is the capacity of individuals,

communities, institutions, businesses and

systems to survive, adapt, and grow no

matter what kinds of chronic stresses and

acute shocks they experience

Source: 100 RC

What is the EM Sectors Role in Achieving the Resilience Outcomes?

Safer and More Resilient Communities

Aims to:Improve community outcomes by:•understanding and analysis of the situation •driving collaboration •understanding consequences by scenario planning•understanding interdependencies•act or mitigate based on actual or potential consequencesOutcomes:•Informs decision makers on consequences and options•Reduce uncertainty complexity via scenario planning •Joined up approach to mitigate consequences•Plan for anticipated events and identifies gaps•Understand State capability to mitigate and manage

Consequences Management

Murray River -Blue Green Algae

Goulburn Murray Water identified high levels of potentially toxic BGA on 18 February 2016

Current situation:•981km Murray River affected•Around 41 townships with a population base of 120,538

Consequence Management

1. Flows of 1000 mega litres a day are regulated through the Kerang Wetlands with the bulk of the water moving through the Loddon River and associated creek/ floodplain resulting in the inundation of approximately 30 farms and associated agricultural land with underfloor flooding of approximately two houses.

 1. Flows of 3000 mega litres a day

are regulated through the Kerang Wetlands with spill water through the Loddon River resulting in the death of 20,000 – 40,000 Ibis chicks in the wetlands and flooding of approximately 30 farms and associated agricultural land with underfloor flooding of approximately two houses.

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• Our focus has been on hazard and risk not necessarily consequences and cascading consequences.

• What is a reasonable tolerance of risk?

• Post event, our first response is to build it back.

• The question needs to be asked “should we build it back and what does the new normal look like?”

Planning and building challenges

EM Resilience ChallengesEM Resilience Challenges• More frequent & intense natural disasters. Longer & deeper droughts, more frequent

& intense bushfires, extreme heat, more costly storms & floods, sea level rise…

• There will be more of us (Vic 6m to 10m 2021) & aged population

• Catastrophic events will overwhelm emergency services

• Natural disasters will cost us a lot (around $12 billion by 2030)

• Insurers will be price signalling to reflect risk & exposure;

• Integrated landuse planning and building

• Tension in the planning system

• The precautionary principle

• Expectations of the community… will be for no loss of life or assets;

• We will be network centric (fragility of systems, dependency of community);

• More warnings and evacuations = > losses of assets

• Violent extremism

• Health and epidemic

@lewshort14

http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort

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