arjen kamphuis arjen@gendo - club of amsterdam...do not confuse! • the possible scenarios leading...

Arjen Kamphuisarjen@gendo.nl

The SingularityFantasy, threat or opportunity?

All Watched Overby Machines of Loving Grace

I'd like to think (andthe sooner the better!)of a cybernetic meadowwhere mammals and computerslive together in mutuallyprogramming harmonylike pure watertouching clear sky.

I like to think(right now, please!)

of a cybernetic forestfilled with pines and electronicswhere deer stroll peacefullypast computersas if they were flowerswith spinning blossoms.

I like to think(it has to be!)

of a cybernetic ecologywhere we are free of our laborsand joined back to nature,returned to our mammal brothers and sisters,and all watched overby machines of loving grace.

Tijd

800.

000

jr

800.

000

yr

7.20

0 yr

Tijd

800.

000

yr

4.00

0 yr

Tijd

800.

000

jr

40

jr

Time

Acceleratedprogress

Gradual progress

Tech today

Linear vs accelerated change

Bron: Foresight Institute

Techcapabilities

TimeAre we here in time? Or here?

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364

0

1,00E+018

2,00E+018

3,00E+018

4,00E+018

5,00E+018

6,00E+018

7,00E+018

8,00E+018

9,00E+018

1,00E+019

grains on the chessboard

No of fields

No

of g

rain

s

18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice

Speed

Kosten

19701970

18501850

Time

Spreading knowledge

from 1440

from 1967

My first computer ... (1977)

My computer ... (2010)

Evolution of computers

The question of whether a

computer can think is no more

interesting than the question of whether

a submarine can swim

- Edsger Dijkstra

Fab @ home

2.0

Techcapabilities

Time7.000.000 yrs

We are here

Do not confuse!• The possible scenarios leading to a

technological singularity and their probability

• The possible (un)wanted effects of such scenario's on individuals, society at large, the eco-system and the planet(s)

• (Un)wanted does not make (un)likely

pres.gendo.nl/futsing.pdf

Arjen Kamphuisarjen@gendo.nlgendo.nl/blog/arjen@arjenkamphuis

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