arjen kamphuis arjen@gendo - club of amsterdam...do not confuse! • the possible scenarios leading...
TRANSCRIPT
Arjen [email protected]
The SingularityFantasy, threat or opportunity?
All Watched Overby Machines of Loving Grace
I'd like to think (andthe sooner the better!)of a cybernetic meadowwhere mammals and computerslive together in mutuallyprogramming harmonylike pure watertouching clear sky.
I like to think(right now, please!)
of a cybernetic forestfilled with pines and electronicswhere deer stroll peacefullypast computersas if they were flowerswith spinning blossoms.
I like to think(it has to be!)
of a cybernetic ecologywhere we are free of our laborsand joined back to nature,returned to our mammal brothers and sisters,and all watched overby machines of loving grace.
Tijd
800.
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jr
800.
000
yr
7.20
0 yr
Tijd
800.
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yr
4.00
0 yr
Tijd
800.
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jr
40
jr
Time
Acceleratedprogress
Gradual progress
Tech today
Linear vs accelerated change
Bron: Foresight Institute
Techcapabilities
TimeAre we here in time? Or here?
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364
0
1,00E+018
2,00E+018
3,00E+018
4,00E+018
5,00E+018
6,00E+018
7,00E+018
8,00E+018
9,00E+018
1,00E+019
grains on the chessboard
No of fields
No
of g
rain
s
18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice
Speed
Kosten
19701970
18501850
Time
Spreading knowledge
from 1440
from 1967
My first computer ... (1977)
My computer ... (2010)
Evolution of computers
The question of whether a
computer can think is no more
interesting than the question of whether
a submarine can swim
- Edsger Dijkstra
Fab @ home
2.0
Techcapabilities
Time7.000.000 yrs
We are here
Do not confuse!• The possible scenarios leading to a
technological singularity and their probability
• The possible (un)wanted effects of such scenario's on individuals, society at large, the eco-system and the planet(s)
• (Un)wanted does not make (un)likely
pres.gendo.nl/futsing.pdf
Arjen [email protected]/blog/arjen@arjenkamphuis
this presentation
emailblog