alexander mueller - soils for development
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SOILS FOR DEVELOPMENT
TRUE-COST ACCOUNTING IN FOOD AND FARMING
London, 04. Dec. 2013
Alexander Müller
Senior Fellow
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)
Potsdam/Germany
Economics of Land Degradation I (source: ELD)
Economics of Land Degradation II (source: ELD)
Land degradation. Some simple figures:• 24 billion tons lost by erosion (wind and water)
• 3.4 tons per person a year
• In some areas of Somalia up to 100 tons/ha and year
• Erosion costs every person 70 per year globally
• 490 Bill USD year
• THESE COSTS DO NOT APPEAR IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS
Agricultural systems at risk (source FAO, SOLAW report)
The ANTHROPOCENE
• Humans alterations on nature and the effects of these
actions have reached a new quantity and quality
• We are living in the ANTHROPOCENE (Paul Crutzen)
• “Humanity is acting now as a quasi-geological force on a
planetary scale that will qualitatively and irreversibly alter
the natural Earth System mode of operation ― should
business-as-usual be pursued”. (Nobel Laureate
Symposium “Sustainability – A Nobel Cause, 2007)
• Fertilizers and Phosphorus – Can we repair or hide land
degradation?
Trends in Fertilizer use
FAO SOLAW 2011
Tilman et al., 2002
Cordell et al 2009
Phosphorus: a critical element in food security
• Is an essential element for any living organism and it cannotbe substituted
• A very low efficiency in phosphorus use along the chain: The input of P from mining amounts to around 24 Mt, people on the planet only eat around 3 Mt P
• And around 10 -12 Mt from mined P are transfered to thesea!
• „..planetary boundaries for eutrophication of freshwatersby P have alreaqdy been surpassed.“(de Haes et al. 1997)
• Will there be enough P in future and what are the costs???
Outlook2050/80: provisional nutritional outcomes (global averages/aggregates) (source: FAO, outlook)
undernourished% of population with
kcal/person/dayobese
% million >2700 >3000 % million
2005/07 13 844 57 28 9 570
2050 4 330 91 52 15 1400
2080 2 150 98 66 21 2000
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The „Energiewende“ in Germanyas an example of a sueccessfull transformation
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The „Energiewende“ started back in 1986!
„To invent a future without nuclear energy“ has started after Chernobyl
A process of 35 years!
„Bipartisan consensus“ in the German Parliament in 2011
Already back in 2001: Red-Green coalition decided
to phase out nuclear
However, a „Partisan decision“
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Feed-in tariffs photovoltaics in Germany
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Negative electricity prices (Energy Exchange) – Example June 2013
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Conditions for a successful „Energiewende“
When weighing up the goal conflicts, careful consideration must be given to the following criteria:
climate protection
security of supply
economic and financial viability, also taking into account social aspects
competitiveness,
research and innovation, and
avoiding one-sided import dependencies for Germany.
(Ethics Commission on a Safe Energy Supply)
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