SOILS FOR DEVELOPMENT

TRUE-COST ACCOUNTING IN FOOD AND FARMING

London, 04. Dec. 2013

Alexander Müller

Senior Fellow

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)

Potsdam/Germany

Economics of Land Degradation I (source: ELD)

Economics of Land Degradation II (source: ELD)

Land degradation. Some simple figures:• 24 billion tons lost by erosion (wind and water)

• 3.4 tons per person a year

• In some areas of Somalia up to 100 tons/ha and year

• Erosion costs every person 70 per year globally

• 490 Bill USD year

• THESE COSTS DO NOT APPEAR IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS

Agricultural systems at risk (source FAO, SOLAW report)

The ANTHROPOCENE

• Humans alterations on nature and the effects of these

actions have reached a new quantity and quality

• We are living in the ANTHROPOCENE (Paul Crutzen)

• “Humanity is acting now as a quasi-geological force on a

planetary scale that will qualitatively and irreversibly alter

the natural Earth System mode of operation ― should

business-as-usual be pursued”. (Nobel Laureate

Symposium “Sustainability – A Nobel Cause, 2007)

• Fertilizers and Phosphorus – Can we repair or hide land

degradation?

Trends in Fertilizer use

FAO SOLAW 2011

Tilman et al., 2002

Cordell et al 2009

Phosphorus: a critical element in food security

• Is an essential element for any living organism and it cannotbe substituted

• A very low efficiency in phosphorus use along the chain: The input of P from mining amounts to around 24 Mt, people on the planet only eat around 3 Mt P

• And around 10 -12 Mt from mined P are transfered to thesea!

• „..planetary boundaries for eutrophication of freshwatersby P have alreaqdy been surpassed.“(de Haes et al. 1997)

• Will there be enough P in future and what are the costs???

Outlook2050/80: provisional nutritional outcomes (global averages/aggregates) (source: FAO, outlook)

undernourished% of population with

kcal/person/dayobese

% million >2700 >3000 % million

2005/07 13 844 57 28 9 570

2050 4 330 91 52 15 1400

2080 2 150 98 66 21 2000

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The „Energiewende“ in Germanyas an example of a sueccessfull transformation

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The „Energiewende“ started back in 1986!

„To invent a future without nuclear energy“ has started after Chernobyl

A process of 35 years!

„Bipartisan consensus“ in the German Parliament in 2011

Already back in 2001: Red-Green coalition decided

to phase out nuclear

However, a „Partisan decision“

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Feed-in tariffs photovoltaics in Germany

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Negative electricity prices (Energy Exchange) – Example June 2013

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Conditions for a successful „Energiewende“

When weighing up the goal conflicts, careful consideration must be given to the following criteria:

climate protection

security of supply

economic and financial viability, also taking into account social aspects

competitiveness,

research and innovation, and

avoiding one-sided import dependencies for Germany.

(Ethics Commission on a Safe Energy Supply)