african economic research consortium · [khumbo luhanga, government of malawi,...

AFRICAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH CONSORTIUM

Seventeenth Annual Conference of the

African Econometric Society

DRAFT PROGRAM July 25 – 28, 2012

Imperial Royale Hotel Kampala, Uganda

1

Day 1: Wednesday, July 25, 2012

8:00 Arrival and Registration

8.30 Plenary Session I: Chair: Dr. Louis Kasekende, Deputy Governor Bank of Uganda

8:40 Welcome Remarks

Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Bank Group (AfDB)

Dr. Sarah Ssewanyana, Executive Director, EPRC

Prof. John Ddumba Ssentamu, Principal, COBAM, Makerere University

Prof. Kaddour Hadri, President, AES

9:30 Official opening Speech by the Guest of Honor (TBC)

10:00 COFFEE BREAK

10:15 Plenary Session II : Prof Pravin K Trivedi, J. H. Rudy Professor in the Department of Economics at Indiana University

11:15 – 13:00 Parallel Session I

A1: Econometric Theory and Methods

B1: Stock Markets

C1: Growth and Institutions

D1: Panel Data

13.00 – 14:00 LUNCH BREAK

14.00 – 17:00* Parallel Session II

A2: Agriculture

B2: Exchange Rate Economics

C2: Growth and Institutions II

D2: AAAWE SESSION I

18.30 Cocktail Reception Hosted by AfDB

Welcome address by Patrick Khaemba, Resident Representative, AfDB Uganda Field Office and Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Institute, AfDB

*Coffee and teas will be made available at the foyer of the parallel session groups between 15h00 and 16h00

2

PARALLEL SESSION I: [11h15-13h00]

Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30

minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A1:] Econometric Theory and Methods

Chair: Peter Dada. Golit: pdgolit@cbn.gov.ng

Generalized Least Squares Model Averaging [Qingfeng Liu, Ryo Okui and Arihiro Yoshimura: okui@kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

The non-Gaussian State Space Volatility and APARCH Models - A Comparison Study for Important Financial Indexes [Frank M. de Pinhoa and Thiago R. dos Santos: frank.pinho@ibmecmg.br]

The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital [Matt Lowe; Chris Papageorgiou, and Fidel Perez-Sebastian: matt.lowe@economics.ox.ac.uk; cpapageorgiou@imf.org; fidel.perez@ua.es]

Structural Change and Real Output Growth in Nigeria: A Co-Integration Analysis [Peter Dada Golit: pdgolit@cbn.gov.ng; golitson2@yahoo.com]

[B1:] Stock Markets

Chair: Agu, David Onyinyechi: david.agu@unn.edu.ng

Modeling Time-Varying Risk Premier of Stock Returns in Kenya [Nicholas Vundi Zacchaeus]

Value Relevance of Accounting Information in the Nigerian Stock Market [Oyerinde, Dorcas Titilayo]

The Dynamics of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nigeria [Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola and Oluwatosin Adeniyi, and Olusegun: mutiu_oyinlola@yahoo.com]

Financial Crisis, Firm Fundamentals and the Pricing of Bank Stocks in Nigeria – Analysis from a Panel of Banks [Agu, David Onyinyechi: david.agu@unn.edu.ng]

[C1:] Growth and Institutions

Chair: Zorobabel Bicaba: Zorobabel.Bicaba@malix.univ-paris1.fr;

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: is governance a source of inequality between countries? [Jamal Bouoiyour And Djékondé Naimbaye: djekonde@yahoo.fr]

Effects of Growth in Capital and Money Supply on Inflation in Uganda [Jimmy Alani: alanijimmy@gmail.com]

GDP Per Capita In Africa: Persistence, Mean Reversion and Long Memory Features [Luis A. Gil-Alana; Olanrewaju I. Shittu; Olaoluwa S. Yaya os.yaya@ui.edu.ng; oi.shittu@ui.edu.ng]

Financial liberalization and Growth: Is there a liberalization frontier? [Zorobabel Bicaba: Zorobabel.Bicaba@malix.univ-paris1.fr; zorobabelbicaba@gmail.com]

3

[D1:] Panel Data

Chair: Eiji Kurozumi: kurozumi@stat.hit-u.ac.jp

Impact of urban growth on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis with panel data model [Didier Adjakidje and Mariette Ebong: adjakidjedidier@gmail.com]

Institutions and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis [H. I. Mobolaji, A. A. Kilishi, M. A. Yaru and A. T. Yakubu: yaruaminu@yahoo.com]

Estimating and Predicting the General Random Effects Model [Eugene Kouassi, Alain Constant Kamdem, JM Bosson Brou, and Mbodja Mougoue: ad4906@wayne.edu]

Covariate Unit Root Test for Cross-Sectionally Dependent Panel Data [Eiji Kurozumi, Daisuke Yamazaki, and Kaddour Hadri: kurozumi@stat.hit-u.ac.jp ]

LUNCH BREAK (13h00-14h00)

PARALLEL SESSION II (14h00 – 17h00)

[A2:] Agriculture Chair: Eric Strobl eric.strobl@polytechnique.edu

Best–Worst Scaling Approach in Predicting Seed Attribute preferences among Resource- Poor Farmers in Two Sates of Northern Nigeria [Abubakar, M.I and Amadou Zakou: miabubakar2004@yahoo.com; amadou.zakou@yahoo.com ]

Determinants of adoption of soil erosion control technologies in Mt. Elgon highlands in eastern Uganda [Mildred Barungi, D. H. Ng’ong’olaa, A. Edrissa, J. Mugisha, M. Waithaka and J. Tukahirwa: mbarungi@eprc.or.ug]

Analysis of Fish Farms Production in The South-East of Ivory Coast: Econometrics analysis using Generalized Maximum Entropy [Aboua Angui Christian: christy.aboua@yahoo.fr.]

Regional bulk purchase of imported rice initiative by ECOWAS: A feasibility assessment [Rose Fiamohe, Ibrahima Bamba, Papa A. Seck and Aliou Diagne: e.fiamohe@cgiar.org]

What determines membership to farmer groups in Uganda? Evidence from the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9 [Annet Adong, Francis Mwaura and Geofrey Okoboi aadong@eprc.or.ug]

A Comparison of the Effect of Large and Small Dams on Cropland Productivity in South Africa [Eric Strobl eric.strobl@polytechnique.edu]

[B2:] Exchange Rates Chair: Toyin Segun Ogunleye tsogunleye@cbn.gov.ng

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis of The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Nigeria [Babatunde Israel Ekundayo: babsekundayo@gmail.com]

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Nigeria: A Financial Econometrics Analysis (1970- 2010) [Ebele P. Ifionu and Kelechi C. Nnamdi: donkc2004@yahoo.com]

The Determinants of Fiscal Deficit and Fiscal Reforms in Nigeria [Sanni H Taiwo: thsann@gmail.com]

Understanding the causal links between Financial Development and International Trade [Youssouf Kiendrebeogo]

4

Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Co integration Approach [Nkenchor Neville Igue and Toyin Segun Ogunleye: nnkemigue@yahoo.com; nigue@cbn.gov.ng;segto@yahoo.com; tsogunleye@cbn.gov.ng]

[C2:] Growth and Institutions Chair: Ariane Wakap Tchagang: wakops@yahoo.fr The Effectiveness of Economic Policies on Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria [Ebele P.

Ifionu, and Kelechi C. Nnamdi: donkc2004@yahoo.com ]

A structural VAR analysis of monetary policy in Nigeria [Samuel O. Orekoya: s.orekoya@cear.org.ng; samkoya@yahoo.com]

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the EAC Regional Integration: A Recursive Computable General Equilibrium Analysis [Isaac Shinyekywa and Joseph Mawejje: ishinyekwa@eprc.or.ug]

Socio Demographic Determinants to Long Run of National Saving in the Countries of West African Economic and Monetary Union (Waemu) [Ariane Wakap Tchagang: wakops@yahoo.fr]

[D2]: (AAAWE Session I) Chair: Joy Kiiru, University of Nairobi, joykiiru@yahoo.com

Impacts of Remittances and Migration on Household Expenditures and Poverty in Burkina Faso: a New Approach Using a Latent Classes Model [Nadège Désirée Yaméogo, African Development Bank, n.yameogo@afdb.org]

The Determinants of Child Health: Evidence from Chad [Eurydice Tormal Gosngar, University of Yaounde II- SOA, eury10_gtormal@yahoo.fr]

The economic analysis of smallholder groundnuts production, a case of Mitundu Extension Planning Area [Khumbo Luhanga, Government of Malawi, l.khumbo@yahoo.co.uk]

The Impact of Mother's Education on Child Health and Nutrition in Developing Countries: Evidence from Natural Experiment in Burkina Faso [Eugenia Maiga, African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET), Ghana, emaiga@acetforafrica.org]

Unconditional and Conditional Cash Transfers Programs in Malawi: an Ex ante Evaluation [Malokele Nanivazo, United Nations University—World Institute of Development Economics, (UNU-WIDER), Malokele@wider.unu.edu]

Social Networks and Individual Reproductive Decision Making [Ngatia Muthoni, J-PAL Africa, South Africa, ngatia@gmail.com]

5

Day 2: Thursday, July 26, 2012

8.30 Plenary Session III:

Chair: Dr. Adam Mugume, Executive Director of Research, Bank of Uganda

8:40 Keynote Papers by

Prof. Kaddour Hadri, President, AES

Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Bank Group (AfDB)

10:30 COFFEE BREAK

11:10 – 13:00 Parallel Session III

A3: Agriculture

B3: Sectoral Economics

C3: AAAWE Session II

D3: AAAWE Session III

13.00 – 14:00* LUNCH BREAK

14.00 – 17:00 Parallel Session IV

A4: Agriculture

B4: Oil in Africa

C4: Poverty and Household Economics

D4: Investments/Manufacturing in Africa

*Coffee and teas will be made available at the foyer of the parallel session groups between 15h00 and 16h00

6

PARALLEL SESSION III (11h10 – 13h00)

Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30

minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A3:] Agriculture Chair: Lidia Dandedjrohou, l.dandedjrohoun@gmail.com

Can Access To Credit Improve Agricultural Productivity And Income? Evidence from Rice Farming in Benin [Medagbe Florent, Aliou Diagne, and Jourdain Lokossou Kinkingninhoun: f.medagbe@cgiar.org]

Quantifying the Actual and Potential Adoption Rates of Nerica Rice Varieties in Nigeria [Paul M. Donstop: pdontsop@yahoo.fr]

Factors Affecting Participation Decisions in Land Lease Markets in Rural Ethiopia [Mhbuba Shifa: mhbuba.shifa@uct.ac.za]

Impact of the Adoption of Improved Technology for Rice Parboiling on Non-Farm Income and Children Schooling in Benin [Lidia Dandedjrohou: l.dandedjrohoun@gmail.com]

[B3:] Sectoral Economics Chair: Adam Pellillo: adam.pellillo@mail.wvu.edu

Management and motivation in Uganda primary schools [Andrew Zietlin, Fred Mugisha, Madina Guloba, Lawrence Bategeka and Ibrahim Kasirye: ikasirye@eprc.or.ug]

Modeling The Child Nutritional Status in Nigeria [Oluwayemisi O. Alaba: oluwayemisioyeronke@yahoo.com]

Conflict and Development: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [Adam Pellillo: adam.pellillo@mail.wvu.edu]

[C3:] AAAWE Session II Chair: Ngatia Muthoni, J-PAL Africa, South Africa, ngatia@gmail.com

Institutional dynamics and capital accumulation: Evidence from Namibia (1923-2009) [Benethelin Zaaruka, University of Witwatersrand, berniez09@yahoo.com]

Investment and Tobin’s Q in Nigerian Manufacturing Firms [Janet Adelegan Olatundun, Lagos State University, Nigeria, olatundunja@yahoo.com]

Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Aggregates in Nigeria [Eme Dada, Office of the Chief Economic Advisor to the President, dadaeme@gmail.com]

Oil rent and Income Inequality in Selected developing Countries: Does Corruption Matter? [Gaelle Tatiana Timba, University of Yaounde II, tatigaelle@yahoo.fr]

Poverty, Sustainable development and Governance A panel data study Reham Rizk, British University in Egypt (BUE) Reham.rizk@bue.edu.eg]

Risk Preferences and Demand For Insurance Under Price Uncertainty: An Experimental Approach For Cocoa Farmers In Cote D’Ivoire [Euphrasie Ben Houssa Koume, University Of Cocody-Abidjan, beneuphra@yahoo.fr]

7

[D3:] AAAWE Session III Chair Eugenie Savadgo Maiga, African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET), Ghana, emaiga@acetforafrica.org

Adoption des cossettes d’igname: Application de la méthode Average Treatment Effect (ATE) [Monney Rodatine, (URES) r.monney@gmail.com]

Corruption spillover effect through countries borders: the case of Benin and Nigeria. A matching method analysis [Elfried Faton, Institut de Recherche Empirique en Economie Politique (IREEP) elfried.faton@gmail.com]

Regional Integration and Industrial Development in West Africa: The Journey So Far [Jane Karonga, United Nations Commission for Africa (UNECA), JKaronga@uneca.org]

Terrorism and Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa, The Case of the CFA Franc Zone [Juliet Elu, Morehouse College, Georgia, USA, jelu@morehouse.edu]

Microfinance and Poverty Reduction [Joy Kiiru, University of Nairobi, joykiiru@yahoo.com]

LUNCH BREAK (13h00-14h00)

PARALLEL SESSION IV (14h00 – 17h00)

[A4:] Agriculture Chair: Aliou Diagne: D.Alia@cgiar.org

Enhancing Productivity, Income and Consumption Spending among Smallholder-Farmers in West Africa: The Impact of Nerica Rice Varieties [Diagne Aliou, Florent Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe, and Paul M.Dontsop Nguezet: pdontsop@yahoo.fr]

Gender differential impact of NERICA adoption on factor productivity: Evidence from Benin [Jourdain Lokossou; Aliou Diagne; Gauthier Biaou and Florent Kinkingninhoun: jlokossou@mail.com]

Understanding farmers’ varietal adoption choices and their preference for varietal characteristics: The case of rice farmers in Africa [Aliou Diagne, Didier Y. Alia*, Marco Wopereis and Kazuki Saito: D.Alia@cgiar.org]

Schooling Externalities in Urban Nigeria: The Social Interactive Sources [Musiliu Adeolu Adewole: gold_soad@yahoo.com; ade.adewole@covenantuniversity.edu.ng]

Impact of Rice Research on Income and Poverty in Africa: An Ex-ante Analysis [Aliou Diagne, Didier Y. Alia, Marco C.S. Wopereis, and Kazuki Saito: D.Alia@cgiar.org]

[B4:] Oil in Africa Chair: Lawrence Bategeka: bategeka@eprc.or.ug Oil Abundance, Institutions and economic development in Algeria: An empirical investigation”.

[Abdelhak Benamar and Mohamed Benbouziane: mbenbouziane@yahoo.fr; benamarabdelhak@yahoo.fr]

Is Chad Affected by Dutch or Nigerian Diseases? [Sandrine Kablan: sandrine.kablan@u-pec.fr]

8

Economic Relationship of Spot and Future Oil Price during and after global crisis [Ibrahim A. Tajudeen: itajudeen@cseaafrica.org ]

Modeling Energy Demand with Regime Shifts: Empirical Evidence from an Oil Rich Developing Country [Olusegun A. Omisakin: brightolusegun@yahoo.com]

The Importance Of Food And Oil Prices In Inflation In A Net Oil-Importing Economy [Roseline Nyakerario Misati, Esman Nyamongo and Isaac Mwangi: MisatiRN@centralbank.go.ke; rosenyamisa@hotmail.com]

Oil wealth and potential Disease effects in Uganda [Lawrence Bategeka and John Mary Matovu: bategeka@eprc.or.ug]

[C4:] Poverty and household economics Chair: Boniface Ngah Epo: epongahb@yahoo.fr

Labour income rigidity in an informal-dominated economy [Fousseynou Bah: Fousseynou.Bah@upmf-grenoble.fr]

Ill- health and labour market outcomes in Uganda [Fred Matovu, Patrick Birungi, and Richard Sebaggala: sebaggalar@yahoo.com]

Socio-Economic Determinants of Household Economic Well-being in Cameroon [Boniface Ngah Epo and Francis Menjo Baye: E-mail:; bayemenjo@yahoo.com]

[D4:] Investment and Manufacturing Chair: Bright Orhewere: unlebright@yahoo.com

Composition of Public Investment and Private Investment in Nigeria: Crowding-In and Crowding-Out Effects [Awolaja, Gbenga Oladapo: awolajao@babcockuni.edu.ng; balmingilead77@yahoo.com]

Comparing the Performance of Uganda’s Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs [Isaac Shinyekwa, Lawrence Othieno: ishinyekwa@eprc.or.ug]

Economic and Political Institutional Reforms and Economic Outcomes in Africa: A Micro econometric Analysis [A. Iwayemi and A. A. Kilishi: meetkilishi@Yahoo.com; Kilishi-a@unilorin]

Innovation and firm growth: Firm level evidence from Uganda [Aggrey Niringiye]

Short And Long-Run Analysis of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria [Bright Orhewere: unlebright@yahoo.com]

9

Day 3: Friday, July 27, 2012

8.30 Plenary Session IV:

Chair: Prof Ddumba Ssentamu, Principal COBAMS, Makerere University

Keynote Papers by:

Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Institute, African Development Bank

Prof. Rabah Arezki, International Monetary Fund

10:30

COFFEE BREAK

11:00 – 13:00 Parallel Session V

A5: Econometric Theory and Methods II

B5: Climate Change/Environmental Economics

C5: Regional Studies

D5: Monetary Policy

13.30 – 14:30 LUNCH BREAK

14.30 Annual General Meeting

15.30 Executive Committee Meeting

10

PARALLEL SESSION V: [11h00-13h00]

Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30

minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A5:] Econometric Theory and Methods Chair Mwangi Isaac Wachira: mwangiiw@centralbank.go.ke

Risk premiums, market efficiency and optimal hedging: The case of cocoa futures markets [Williams Ohemeng and Bo Sjo: ohens@yahoo.com; bo.sjo@liu.se]

Modeling Volatility of Price of Some Selected Consumer Products in Hawassa City, Ethiopia: ARCH-GARCH [Yegnanew Alem Shiferaw: yegna2009@gmail.com]

Modeling Inflation Types and Their Volatilities in Nigeria: An Application of Garch Models [Babatunde S. Omotosho and Sani I. Doguwa: bs_deji@yahoo.com; bsomotosho@cbn.gov.ng]

Factors Affecting Loan Delinquency in Microfinance Institutions in Kenya [Beatrice Warue Njeru: njerubeatrice1@gmail.com]

Impact of Financial Literacy on Access to Financial Services in Kenya [Mwangi Isaac Wachira and Kihiu Evelyne Nyathira: mwangiiw@centralbank.go.ke ]

[B5:] Climate Change/Environment Chair: Cush Ngonzo Luwesi: cushngonzo@gmail.com

Impact of Climate Change and International Trade on Crop Biodiversity in West Africa Countries [Aboua Angui Christian Dorgelès Kevin: Christy.aboua@yahoo.fr]

Solid waste disposal among urban agricultural households: A multinomial Logit analysis in lowland area of Yaoundé [Awah Manga Lucien Armel: armelpipo@yahoo.fr]

Applying Inventory Models To Evaluate Water Productivity And Optimize Food Production In The Course Of Climate Change – Lessons From Smallholder Farms In Machakos District, Kenya [Cush Ngonzo Luwesi, and Chris Allan Shisanya: cushngonzo @gmail.com]

[C5:] Regional studies Chair: Jean Marcellin Bosson Brou, Email:brou.bosson@hotmail.com]

Current Account Sustainability in the EAC Countries: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Exports and Imports [Moses Kiptui kiptuimc@ksms.or.ke]

Foreign Aid and Domestic Tax Revenue in Uganda [Eria Hisali mhisali@yahoo.co.uk]

Empiric Study of the Impact of the Sector ICT on the Moroccan Economic Growth [Souleymane Sakande ssakande@gmail.com]

Uganda’s revealed Comparative Advantage: The Evidence with the EAC and China [Isaac Shinyekwa and Lawrence Othieno: ishinyekwa@eprc.or.ug]

East Africa Trapped in the Malthusian Trap and Getting Out: Comparison of Attempts and Prospects for Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania [Julia V. Zinkina]

11

On the Estimation and Prediction of Bilateral Trade Flow models [Jean Marcellin Bosson Brou, brou. boson@hotmail.com]

[D5:] Monetary Policy Chair: Kenneth Egesa: kegesa@bou.or.ug

Monetary Policy and Growth in Africa: Effects of Transparency [Francoise Okah Efogo: francie_okah@hotmail.fr]

Demand for International Reserve in Nigeria: Evidence from an Ardl Specification [Mohammed Isa Shuaibu and Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim: mohammed_shuaibu@yahoo.com; imohfik@yahoo.com]

A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Model of Ethiopia [Asrat Atsedeweyn Andargie; Olusanya E. Olubusoye: asrat07@gmail.com; busoye2001@yahoo.com]

The Effects of Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Nonperforming Loans in Commercial Banks in Kenya: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis [Beatrice Warue Njeru njerubeatrice1@gmail.com]

Excess Reserves in Uganda’s Banking System and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy [Kenneth Egesa: kegesa@bou.or.ug; ike_iek@yahoo.com]

12

DRAFT AGENDA

Policy Dialogue on The Flow of Funds Approach

09:00 Opening remarks: Mthuli Ncube, Chief Economist and Vice President, AfDB

Louis Kasekende, Deputy Governor, Bank of Uganda First session: 09:15–10:15 Topic: The Flow of Funds Approach: overview and case study Presenter: Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development

Institute, AfDB Chair: Oluyele Akinkugbe 10:15–10.30 Tea/Coffee Break Second session: 10:30-12:30 Working groups on

1. Flow of funds and capacity challenges 2. Management of capital flight and illicit flows 3. Financial sector reforms and fiscal policy

12:30–14:00 Lunch Break Third session: 14:00 – 15:00 Presentation of working group reports Fifth session: 15:00 – 16:00 Plenary discussion of working group reports 16:00–16:20 Wrap-up: Summary of key policy recommendations

and new research areas Prof. Bernadette Kamgnia, Manager, Development Management and Policy Dialogue, African Development Institute, AfDB

16:20-16:30 Vote of thanks Sarah Ssewanyana, Executive Director, EPRC