adaption strategies to climate change: predictive response and restoration!? de climate change...

Adaption Strategies to Climate Change:Predictive Response and Restoration!?

DE Climate Change WorkshopMay 6 2008

Robert Haddad, Ph.D., Simeon Hahn, Krissy Rusello, Anthony Dvarskas, Tom Brosnan

Office of Response & Restoration NOAA

The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

DARRP Mission:

To protect and restore NOAA’s coastal natural resources harmed by releases of hazardous materials or oil spills

Authority includes: CERCLA, OPA, CWA, NMSA

Accomplishments –in Delaware (with our partners)

Settlements have resulted in 7 protection and restoration projects in Delaware.

Restoration and/or protection of 530 acres of marine habitats in Delaware (completed and planned activities).

Cleanup actions promote recovery of coastal resources and communities at 16 hazardous waste sites.

NOAA’s Strategic Plan 1. Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal and

Ocean Resources through an Ecosystem Approach to Management;

2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond;

3. Serve Society's Needs for Weather and Water Information; 4. Support the Nation's Commerce with Information for

Safe, Efficient, and Environmentally Sound Transportation; and

5. Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission

“Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable… The only question is will it be by plan or by chaos?”

Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of IPCC

Change Effect

Increase in salinity and temperature

Changes in rainfall/runoff patterns

Increased tidal inundation and surges

Increased erosion Impacts to groundwater (salt

water intrusion, mobilization of contaminants)

Increasing frequency and intensity of storms and flooding

Conversion of wetlands to open water

Changes in erosion and accretion of beaches, other shorelines, coastal barriers

Increased eutrophication, turbidity, and hypoxia

Loss of less adaptable/sensitive species, changes in invasive species

Decrease in public access to shorelines

Infrastructure impacts: ports, rails, roads, sewage systems, industrial facilities

Socioeconomic and financial impacts

Climate ChangeClimate Change

e.g., US Climate Change Science Program

Useful Adaptation Links Databases of adaptation projects and strategies

World Resources Institute http://projects.wri.org/adaptation-database UNFCCC http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/ Natural Resources Canada

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/index_e.php Policies and planning

Guidebook on climate change preparedness http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml

OCRM/Coastal Zone Management Act http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/czm/media/ClimateChangeHazards.pdf

EPA - http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/index.html, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/adaptation.html

But what about these?

Erosion and remobilization of contaminants Increased risk of spills – pipeline infrastructure,

shoreline infrastructure, well-heads, arctic shipping lanes

Changes in estuarine circulation and contaminant fate and transport

Changes in bioavailability of contaminants (e.g., metals)

Area Information

Statistics

Approx 3,000 vessel arrivals/year 2nd largest petro-chemical port in the

nation (largest for crude oil imports) Largest VLCC receiving port in nation 1 million barrels of crude oil imported daily Largest North American port for steel,

paper, and meat imports Largest cocoa bean and fruit import port on

east coast Port system generates $19 billion in annual

revenue

Home to: Five of the largest east coast refineries Six nuclear power plants Three states and two federal regions

SIRB Sites

RCRA sites

SIRB sites

Wilmington

Dover

Lewes

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal

SIRB: Site Investigation and Restoration Branch

Map source: Delaware Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Control

Selected Hazardous Waste Sites in

Delaware

Predictive Response & Restoration

Climate Change Assess/Evaluate potential “at risk” industrial

infrastructure and Hazardous Waste sites Work with partners to develop adaptive

response Develop appropriate adaptive strategies for

future restoration

Delaware River Watershed Delaware River Watershed Database & Mapping ProjectsDatabase & Mapping Projects

Combines the power of a comprehensive Combines the power of a comprehensive database with the visual strength’s of database with the visual strength’s of

Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Natural Resource losses/gains at:Natural Resource losses/gains at:

Hazardous Waste SitesHazardous Waste SitesBrownfield SitesBrownfield Sites

NJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesNJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesOil Spill SitesOil Spill Sites

Restoration SitesRestoration Sites

http://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.htmlhttp://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.html

Delaware River Watershed Delaware River Watershed Database & Mapping ProjectsDatabase & Mapping Projects

Combines the power of a comprehensive Combines the power of a comprehensive database with the visual strength’s of database with the visual strength’s of

Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Natural Resource losses/gains at:Natural Resource losses/gains at:

Hazardous Waste SitesHazardous Waste SitesBrownfield SitesBrownfield Sites

NJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesNJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesOil Spill SitesOil Spill Sites

Restoration SitesRestoration Sites

http://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.htmlhttp://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.html

While we can’t be sure of what would happen to chemical and oil infrastructure in DE, we know what happened in LA…

Nearly 400 reported releases of hazardous material, e.g., hundreds of stranded drums of unknown materials (http://www.incidentnews.gov).

16 major pollution incidents

Millions of gallons of oil spilled

Should we be concerned???

Secondary/Tertiary Impacts

As with current spills, cascading effects will need to be considered

Recreational impacts Ecological Impacts Commercial Impacts (Port/vessel traffic closures, fishing

bans, etc.)

Others - In the Athos spill, Salem nuclear power plant was shut down due to potential for submerged oil/water intake

Potential Approaches

Re-analyze Relative Sea level changes from the perspective of industrial infrastructures and future restoration

Couple potential ecosystem changes with increased risks of spills/contamination

Develop tools to better identify risks and improve predictions

Conduct risk and vulnerability assessments Work with industry to develop risk evaluation leading to

decision tree for potential and necessary actions

Challenges

Incorporate predictive impacts into regional and facility-specific contingency plans

Work with Stakeholders to incorporate vulnerability assessment into restoration plans

Promote habitat restoration that mitigates climate change

Identify and overcome institutional barriers!

For More Information…

www.darrp.noaa.gov www.response.restoration.noaa.gov

California Restoration and Adaptation Example South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project: goal

to convert 15,100 acres of commercial salt ponds

Project planning incorporated mid-range sea level rise estimate

Higher than anticipated sea level rises could impact progression Would require adaptive management of

project

Source: South Bay Salt pond Restoration project. http://www.southbayrestoration.org/climate/.

Canadian Strategy

Natural Resources Canada has Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

Projects underway include: Evaluation of risk of erosion and flooding in

British Columbia Sea level rise impacts upon Prince Edward

Island Fate of salt marshes in Atlantic Canada

Source: Natural Resources Canada. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php.

European Union

Vulnerable coastal zones in multiple Member States

EU reports address adaptation strategy

Source: European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2006. http://www.eea.europa.eu.

European Union (cont’d) Green Paper underlines importance in taking action and

leading adaptation strategies Without early policy response adaptation measures risk being

chaotic Potential actions defined:

Relatively inexpensive “soft” actions (e.g., public planning) Costly defense/relocation measures (e.g., increasing dyke

height, relocating populations and critical infrastructure) Adaptation policies emerging in Member States

Netherlands Adaptation Strategy Natural coastal defenses such as sand dunes threatened

by increased wave action with sea level rise Identified potential strategies:

Reinforcement of dykes to withstand more frequent flooding

Widening/raising of sand dunes Construction of buildings on floating infrastructure Artificial reefs Allowing predesignated areas to flood — “Living

With Water”

Adaptation in Developing Countries

Work ongoing between international organizations and governments to assess vulnerability, develop strategies

Particularly challenging given limited infrastructure and funding

threats from development (e.g., wetland and mangrove loss)

Fiji: Coral Restoration

Reefs can reduce coastal erosion and sand loss Corals planted, mangroves restored, “fish houses”

constructed, removal of starfish infestation Choice of corals important Could be replicated elsewhere

Source: UNFCCC. http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/.

Bangladesh

• One strategy includes switching to more salt tolerant food production (e.g., shrimp farming instead of rice fields)

Thailand and Sri Lanka Thailand

Program implemented to restore and conserve mangrove forests

Includes community training in mangrove management

Sri Lanka Project focuses on East Coast Will rehabilitate:

Coastal lagoons (1,000 ha) Sand dunes (75 ha) of sand dunes Mangroves (250 ha)

Assessing Field Projects for Adaptation

IUCN, IISD, SEI-US, Intercooperation developed Community-based Risk Screening Tool—Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) tool

Goal: assist project managers in aligning community projects with risk reduction/adaptation goals

One objective: how to adjust projects to adaptive capacity

Source: International Institute for Sustainable Development. http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2007/brochure_cristal.pdf.