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Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
PRECISProviding REgional Climates for Impact
StudiesThe Hadley Centre regional climate
modelling systemA presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on
non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines
by
Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
8 April 2003
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Outline
Background: Motivation and PRECIS overview PRECIS components and their application Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS Applying PRECIS in impacts assessment Limitations of PRECIS and future developments
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Motivation
UNFCCC requirement to assess national vulnerability and plans for adaptation
UNFCCC requirement to submit National Communications
Both need estimate of impacts Impacts need detailed scenarios of future climate Scenarios are best produced locally, using expert
knowledge and increasing ownership
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Predicting impacts
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Who is PRECIS for?
Government scientists from less developed countries involved in vulnerability and adaptation studies
A regional model’s domain usually encompasses several countries, so it is hoped that neighbouring countries will collaborate to produce ensembles
It is hoped to draw on local resources, such as
expertise in local climate
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Who funds PRECIS?
DEFRA DFID UNDP
HadleyCentre's
RCM
PC RCMand userinterface
Trainingmaterial
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
How fast does it go?
T3E (supercomputer) - 1.5 months (36 Processors)
PC (Intel P4 2.8 GHz) - 4.5 months
30 year integration, 100x100 grid points
Hardware requirements PC running under the Linux operating system
Memory : 512MB minimum; 768MB recommended
Minimum 60GB disk space + offline storage for archiving data
Simulation speed proportional to chip speed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
PRECIS: PC system components
U S E R In te rfa ce R e g ion a l M o d e l G ra ph ic p a cka ge
P R E C IS : P C sys tem
DomainScenarioPeriod
Diagnostics
Run PRECISRun PRECIS
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
PRECIS components: full list
User-interface to set up RCM experiments
The latest Hadley Centre RCM
Data-processing and graphics software
Boundary conditions from latest Hadley Centre GCM
Training course and materials
PRECIS website and helpdesk
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
What is a Regional Climate Model?
Comprehensive physical high resolution climate model that covers a limited area of the globe, usually including the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system, and containing representations of the important processes within the climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Limited area models driven at the boundaries by GCM observed boundary data.
Resolution of 50km
Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Boundary conditions
Requests through– PRECIS website
– helpdesk
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Training course and supporting material
Training in the use of PRECIS will focus on:– Background science including uncertainties
– Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts
– Construction of regional climate change scenarios
– Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS
PRECIS will be supplied with:– a workbook covering the background science, system description
and the uses and limitations of PRECIS
– a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Support and follow-up Helpdesk
– email, phone
– web-based discussion
Website– news
– updates
– datasets
– resources
Collaboration/workshops
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Regional detail when simulating current climate
Realistic detail in climate change predictions
Resolution of islands, smaller countries e.g. Italy
Realistic simulation of extreme events
Provides comprehensive data for impact models
Applications of RCMs
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER BRITIAN
Observed, and simulated with RCM and GCM
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
SIMULATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
in the PRECIS regional climate model Global climate model Regional
climate model
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
WINTER DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE SW CAPE, SOUTH
AFRICASW Cape winter rainfall: Observed - red, GCM - green, RCM - blue
<0.1 0.1-5 5-20 20-30 30-40 >40
mm/day
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION
between the present day and the middle of the 21st century
Global climate model Regional climate model
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
SUMMER TEMPERATURES in the 2080s
compared to the present day, due to A2 emissions
Climate on islands changes very differently to the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, and can only be predicted using an RCM
Global climate model Regional climate model
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS
PRECIS can provide:– climate scenarios for any region
– an estimate of uncertainty due different emissions
– an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability
Data available from PRECIS– comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface
– grid-scale box average quantities
– maximum time resolution one hour
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
CO2 EMISSIONS PROFILESunder IPCC SRES scenarios
Source:IPCC
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISEdue to four SRES emissions scenarios
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Applying PRECIS in impacts assessments
Obtain current state from impacts model via:
a) observed data e.g. as used in model validation
b) RCM control data Obtain future state from impacts model using:
– RCM climate changes (in means, variability, etc) applied to observed data (compare with a)
– RCM future climate data directly (compare with b)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONE simulated by the PRECIS regional climate
model
Resulting storm surge simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory model
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
CHANGE IN ANNUAL SURFACE RUNOFF
between today and the 2080s, for A2 emissions
Southampton University hydrological model
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Current limitations of PRECIS 10 year simulations take a month or more It is a model hence imperfect, i.e.
uncertainty due to use of only one RCM is not captured
Uncertainty due to imperfect driving data (i.e. from only one GCM) is not captured
Resolution of 50km or 25km insufficient for some impacts applications
Coastal or marine impacts have to be inferred (e.g. storm surges)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
PRECIS: treatment of uncertainties
PRECIS accounts for uncertainties due to:
– Future emissions - uses 4 SRES scenarios
– Natural variability - uses initial condition ensembles PRECIS does not account for uncertainties due
to:– The conversion of emissions to concentrations - carbon
cycle or chemistry (except sulphur cycle) not represented
– Uncertainty in the response of the climate system - only boundary conditions from 1 GCM are used
– Uncertainty in the detailed climate change - only one RCM is used
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
CHANGE IN S ASIA SUMMER RAINFALL with PREDICTED BY NINE GCMs (A2
emissions)
A2 emissions scenario
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
% CHANGE INWINTER
PRECIPITATION
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
REPRESENTATION OF THE PHILIPPINES
WITH DIFFERENT MODEL RESOLUTIONS
25km RCM resolution 50km RCM resolution GCM 300km resolution
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Continuously upgraded to new processors Ability to run PRECIS RCM from different GCMs
– at least two to be added this year
– relevant cooperation from GCM centres being sought
Intercomparisons of all RCMs being organised– No plans for PRECIS to incorporate other RCMs
Resolution of model being improved to 10km RCM with ocean component being built
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Final remarks
You can contact us via:– Email: precis@metoffice.com
– Tel: +44 1344 856885
– Fax: +44 1344 854898
Web-site for information on PRECIS– www.hadleycentre.com/models/PRECIS.html
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