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UNFCCC - Technical workshop on water, climate change impacts and adaptation strategies
Mexico City, Mexico – 19 July 2012
Tools and methods for assessing and reducing water resource vulnerability to climate change
Bart (A.J.) Wickel and Sergio Salinas
E. Barrios N. Sindorf, S. Freeman (WWF)
J.H. Matthews (CI)
Structure
Introduction
Scalable vulnerability and resilience tools and methods
National to basin level – Water Reserves
Basin level ‐ HydroBAT
Basin to community level – Flowing forward
Conclusions
Burrowing owl, Brazil
© Bart Wickel
The climate change opportunity
There is common understanding that we are facing a serious set of problems
Water is a key issue in economical and human development and conservation (Food, Water and Energy Security)
The water and conservation science communities hold a wealth of tools, data products and solutions
There is an opportunity to demonstrate a conservation based approach to development
Chapada dos Veadeiros, Brazil
© Bart Wickel
Models and adaptation
Temperature
Precipitation
A linear change in mean climate?
ORIntensification ofextreme events
ORShifts in seasonality
ORState level shifts
Vulnerability to what change?
Extreme eventsFloodsHurricanesTornadoesDrought
Seasonal shiftsSnow/ice meltDry season durationSpring burstMigration
State level shiftsFire regime shiftPerennial → IntermittentForest → savanna
Climate Change = Water Change
Chapada dos Veadeiros, Brazil
© Bart Wickel
Community based
adaptation
Ecosystem based
adaptation
System based Adaptation
• Water is the integrative element• Water resource vulnerability
• Recognizes the needs of people and ecosystems• Adaptive IRBM – IRBM+
Reconnecting wetlands and floodplain restoration
Preventing maladaptation
and “green”/softer infrastructure
River andwetland conservation
Forest conservation
River andwetland conservation,
source water protection
Water reserves
Examples: WWF Freshwater adaptation projects
Disaster risk reduction and source water
protection
WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX
Risk management
Water use > 40% High water stress
Water resources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
40%
60%
Source: European Environment Agency
Mean An
nualRu
noff(M
AR)
Water pressure =
National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
60%
40%
Natural infrastructure and water management are the great allies
> 60%Mean An
nualRu
noff(M
AR)
National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1-en
e
1-fe
b
1-m
ar
1-ab
r
1-m
ay
1-ju
n
1-ju
l
1-ag
o
1-se
p
1-oc
t
1-no
v
1-di
c
Cau
dal (
m3 /s
)
Climate change vulnerabilities:
– Extreme events: physical capacity to mange /attend risk foods
– Variability in water availability: with main focus in droughts
• Overallocation
100 % MAR
National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves
Water reserves: – Reduce user water risk– Prevents overallocation– Reduce water resource vulnerability– Secure/increase adaptive capacity of both people and nature
100 % MAR
60 % MAR
National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves
THE MEXICAN PUBLIC POLICY CASE• Water Reserves are considered in National Water Law• It came out the need for a National Standard to
estimate that water reserve. o It was developed based on mexican and international
experience, with the participation of the academy, government agencies, and NGO.
o It recognizes: – A needed balance between water use and ecologicalimportance
– Surface and groundwater integration– Preventive principle for sensible ecosystems– Climate variability
© Jaime Rojo/WWF
The Baseline
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1-en
e
1-fe
b
1-m
ar
1-ab
r
1-m
ay
1-ju
n
1-ju
l
1-ag
o
1-se
p
1-oc
t
1-no
v
1-di
c
Cau
dal (
m3 /s
)
WWF/Conagua/IADB Partnership
1. Built on national water law which recognizes the environment water‐needs
2. Turns a limiting regulation into a securing regulation
3. Safeguards ecosystem resilience
National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves
Evaluate
• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution
Visualize
• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data
Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT
Analyze
• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability
Evaluate
• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution
Visualize
• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data
Analyze
• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability
Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT
Evaluate
• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution
Visualize
• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data
Analyze
• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability Relative snow pack sensitivity
Decrease in duration of upstream snow season
50 % <40‐50 %30‐40 %20‐30 %
10‐20 %0‐10%No decrease
Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT
Flowing Forward
Characteristics:
Framework approach
Combines climate and development scenarios
Combines participatory approaches with desk studies and scientific analyses
Looks at communities and the environment
Appropriate Scale:
Landscape/Watershed
Strengths:
Flexible
Integrated approach
Not restricted to data‐heavy analyses
Integrates outputs form other tools
Phase 1Objectives and Scope
Identify Analysis Targets
Assess Ecological Condition
Assess Exposure
Vulnerability
Phase 2Ecological Vulnerability
Development Scenarios
Climate Scenarios
CombinedPotential Impacts
Rate Ecological Condition
(Sensitivity & Resilience)
Impact Rating
(Exposure)
ID Key Factors of Sensitivity & Resilience
Vulnerability Rating
Social Adaptive Capacity
(by Analysis Unit)
Assess CapacityIdentify Key Components
Phase 3Social Adaptive Capacity
Institutional Map
Policy Map
Infrastructure Map
People Overview
Information Overview
Institutions
Policies
Infrastructure
People
Information
Adaptation Options by Target
Landscape Adaptation Strategies
Phase 4Adaptation Strategies
Flowing Forward
Water Reserves of Mexico:www.wwf.org.mx/water‐reserves
The flowing forward report:http://www.flowingforward.org/
The Indrawati VA report:http://niwater.org/2011/08/workshop‐report‐ecosystem‐based‐vulnerability‐assessment‐in‐nepal/
Selected references:• Matthews, J.H., Wickel, A.J., Freeman, S. (2011) Converging streams in climate‐relevant conservation: water, infrastructure, and institutions, PLOS Biology.• Matthews, J.H., Wickel, A.J., Freeman, S. and Thieme, M.L. (2011). The future of African freshwaters. In: The Diversity of Life in African Freshwaters: Under Water, Under Threat, Darwall, W.R.T., Smith, K.G., Allen, D.J., Holland, R.A, Harrison, I.J., and Brooks, E.G.E. editors: 264‐269.• Wickel, A.J., Simonov, E., Matthews, J.H., (2011) Mal‐adaptive responses to climate change: The DaurianSteppe region of Mongolia, China and Russia (submitted).• Matthews, J.H., Aldous, A. and Wickel, A.J. (2009). Managing Water in a Shifting Climate. Journal of the AWWA August 2009: 28‐29/99. • Matthews J.H., Wickel, A.J. (2009) Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation: a natural history approach. Climate and Development 1: 269‐279. doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0018
Resources
[email protected] ; [email protected]
Chapada do Veiados, BrazilChapada do Veiados, Brazil
Thanks for your attention
© Bart Wickel© Bart Wickel